سید حسین میرجلیلی

Monetary policy is one of the most important tools for policymakers to influence macroeconomic variables including production. However, implementing this policy sometimes yields unintended consequences. Understanding monetary policy transmission mechanisms is therefore critical for effective implementation. Research following the 2008-2009 financial crisis indicates that the shadow banking activity can disrupt the monetary policy transmission and weaken its effectiveness. An analysis of Iran’s financial system reveals increasing shadow banking activity. This paper therefore examines how shadow banking affects monetary policy transmission in Iran using a DSGE model that innovatively incorporates the shadow banking sector. We compare two scenarios: a financial system without shadow banking and one including shadow banking. The effects of two contractionary monetary policies—interest rate increase and reductions in money supply growth—on GDP, investment, and inflation were analyzed under each scenario. The findings indicate that shadow banking diminishes monetary policy’s impact on all three variables by weakening the credit channel of monetary policy transmission. In the scenario without shadow banking, In the scenario without shadow banking, all three variables will decline in response to the monetary shock of decreasing money supply growth. However, in the scenario with shadow banking, investment levels are not declining but rising. The impact of monetary policy on output and inflation is diminished in the presence of shadow banking. In the case of interest rate shocks, the results also indicate a negative impact of shadow banking on the effectiveness of monetary policy.

The value of a company is important to shareholders, investors, managers, creditors, and other stakeholders in their assessment of the company's future, its impact on the estimation of investment risk and returns, and stock prices. Therefore, examining the factors affecting a company's value is crucial. Intellectual capital, as a determinant in creating competitive advantage and value, plays a special role and is considered as an intangible asset of companies. Theoretical background and empirical evidence suggest that intellectual capital has a direct impact on a company's value and performance. Moreover, the need for corporate governance arises from the potential conflict of interest between individuals within the company's structure, which can affect its value. As banks’ shares play an important role in the Tehran Stock Exchange, we examine the impact of intellectual capital and good corporate governance on bank value, with the mediating effect of financial performance. The statistical population of this study includes 17 banks listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange over the period from 2017 to 2021. The results indicated that intellectual capital has a significant effect, while corporate governance does not have a significant effect on bank value. Additionally, the mediating effect of financial performance on the relationship between intellectual capital and bank value is accepted based on the Baron and Kenny method for mediation. The findings also show that the mediating effect of financial performance on the relationship between good corporate governance and bank value is confirmed according to the Zhao et al. procedure. Moreover, the results indicated that adding another independent variable relatively increases the explanatory power of the model.

Blockchain technology, as a decentralized and distributed database, has significant capabilities in enhancing transparency, security, and efficiency can help improve the financial performance of companies through the enhancement of supply chain and export processes. Therefore, we examined the impact of blockchain technology on the financial performance of small and medium businesses, with the mediating role of supply chain efficiency and export performance in tile and ceramic exporting companies in Iran using structural equation modeling. The statistical population consists of experts and specialists of the companies mentioned, particularly in the fields of finance, sales, and production, with a sample size of 261 individuals. The results indicated that the impact of using blockchain technology on supply chain efficiency and export performance is positive and significant. Moreover, the mediating roles of supply chain efficiency and export performance in the relationship between blockchain technology and the financial performance of small and medium businesses are positive, strong, and significant.

This study aims to identify the macroeconomic factors influencing the likelihood of a banking crisis in Iran, with a particular focus on macroprudential policy. We employed a discrete econometric model (Logit/Probit) using data from 2011 to 2023. The independent variables include the loan-to-deposit ratio (LTD) as a proxy for macroprudential policy, the interbank interest rate as a proxy for monetary policy, as well as the inflation rate and exchange rate volatility as indicators of macroeconomic instability. The positive and significant coefficient of LTD confirms that liquidity risk arising from excessive credit expansion is the main domestic factor increasing the probability of a crisis. The strong and positive coefficients for inflation and exchange rate volatility suggest that macroeconomic and currency shocks threaten financial stability by deteriorating asset quality and increasing loan defaults. The coefficient for the interbank rate implies the dominance of the disciplinary and supervisory effects of monetary policy over liquidity risk, meaning that a targeted increase in the policy rate by the central bank effectively reduces the probability of a crisis by imposing higher costs on riskier banks. Overall, the findings indicate that financial stability in Iran is influenced by short-term liquidity management and macroeconomic shocks, and that macroprudential policy plays an effective role in curbing risk-taking behavior.

For forty years, LIBOR was the dominant benchmark interest rate for various financial products, playing a central role in global financial markets. LIBOR was available in 10 currencies and 15 maturities, fulfilling two primary roles: acting as a reference rate for financial contracts and serving as a benchmark for evaluating financing costs. However, these rates were not based on actual transaction data but were instead calculated from surveys of participating panel banks. Thomson Reuters computed the rates using a trimmed mean. The LIBOR scandal involved three forms of manipulation by panel banks: under-reporting, over-reporting, and maintaining artificial stability in rates. The Wheatley Review recommended reforming LIBOR instead of replacing it. In March 2021, the UK FCA officially confirmed the gradual elimination of all LIBOR settings. By June 30, 2023, the remaining US dollar LIBOR settings were discontinued. Fines related to the LIBOR scandal surpassed $10 billion. In July 2021, the World Bank announced the transition from LIBOR to new reference rates for both new and existing loans. The main alternatives to LIBOR include SOFR, SONIA, €STR, SARON, TONAR, and AONIA. This paper explores the debate between using a single or multiple reference rates, considering the benefits of a multi-reference system to mitigate systemic risk.  

This paper evaluates the effectiveness of macroprudential policy in reducing commercial banks' risk exposure in Iran. In this study, an empirical model is developed using dynamic panel data techniques and the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator to examine the impact of macroprudential policy on the risk-taking behavior of Iranian banks during the period 2010-2024. The analysis evaluates the potential effects of four macroprudential instruments aligned with policy objectives: the loan-to-income ratio (LTI), the loan-to-deposit ratio (LTD), the leverage ratio (LVR), and liquidity requirements (LIQ). As a result of stronger macroprudential oversight, commercial banks are significantly less likely to take on risk. In the context of financial sanctions and Iran’s unique economic environment, macroprudential tools remain highly effective in mitigating banking risks. As such, LTD instruments have a time lag, whereas LVR instruments have an immediate impact on risk. Additionally, no single instrument is more effective than the composite macroprudential index at reducing risk-taking. A more secure, less vulnerable banking system in Iran is possible through macroprudential policies, as the results show.

Exchange rate fluctuations and economic sanctions are recognized as two key factors in Iran’s economy that can have significant impacts on the country’s financial and product markets. This study examines the effect of exchange rate changes and the intensified financial sanctions on the return of the Tehran Stock Exchange Index using the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) method. It allows for changes in parameters over time, providing flexibility in adjusting coefficients according to changes in conditions. The variables include Tehran Stock Exchange index return, exchange rate growth and financial sanctions. The data employed covers the period from 2011 to 2023 with monthly frequency. Impulse response function of the Tehran Stock Exchange returns to financial sanctions shock and to exchange rate growth shock are illustrated in the paper in different points of time. The results suggest that the increase in exchange rate led to a decrease in stock market returns between August 2013 and November 2015 and until September 2018. Therefore, the Tehran Stock Exchange index has experienced varying and asymmetric effects from financial sanctions and exchange rate fluctuations over different time periods.

This article aims to examine the effects of macroeconomic variables on Iran’s bilateral trade with member countries of the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) over the period 2007–2023, utilizing an extended gravity model. In the context of evolving global trade dynamics and escalating international sanctions, the research seeks to assess the influence of key factors—including GDP, inflation differentials, exchange rate volatility, digital trade and financial sanctions—on Iran–ECO trade flows. Using panel data and a fixed-effects regression approach, the model incorporates both traditional gravity variables (economic size, distance) and contemporary trade determinants (internet penetration, sanctions). The results indicate that GDP growth and improvements in digital infrastructure significantly promote trade, whereas inflation disparities and exchange rate instability hinder it. Interestingly, financial sanctions exhibit a positive impact, suggesting a reorientation of Iran’s trade towards ECO countries. The findings imply that deeper regional integration, expanded digital trade capacity and the use of alternative trade mechanisms can help buffer external shocks and strengthen trade resilience. full text: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/09721509261447173