تحلیل اثرات برنامه ریزی در کاهش آسیب پذیری در برابر مخاطره سیل (مطالعه موردی: شهر تالش) (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
سیلاب ازجمله مخاطراتی است که در سال های اخیر خسارات زیادی در مناطق موردمطالعه بر جای گذاشته است. با توجه به اینکه نمی توان از وقوع رخداد سیلاب جلوگیری کرد ولی می توان با ارزیابی نقاط تاب آور و آسیب پذیر در برابر خطرات احتمالی تا حد زیادی اثرات ناشی از سیلاب را کاهش داد هدف از انجام این تحقیق سنجش میزان تاب آوری شناسایی نقاط قدرت و ضعف قسمت های تحت تأثیر سیلاب در شهر تالش است. پژوهش حاضر با توجه به ماهیت موضوع و هدف کلی، آن از نوع مطالعات کاربردی بوده و به لحاظ روش شناسی از نوع مطالعات توصیفی- تحلیلی است. تعیین حجم نمونه آماری آن با استفاده از روش کوکران و روش نمونه گیری بر اساس نمونه گیری تصادفی انجام شد. برای سنجش آسیب پذیری از بین خانوارهای ساکن در شهر تالش، تعداد 383 نفر از شهروندان و 30 نفر کارشناسان به عنوان حجم نمونه تحقیق انتخاب شدند. سپس برای بررسی ارتباط میان شاخص ها و تحلیل آن ها نیز از نرم افزار SPSS استفاده شد و خروجی هر بخش از کار به صورت نقشه با استفاده از نرم افزار ARCGIS ترسیم گردید. نتایج نشان می دهد پهنه های خطر خیلی کم، خطر کم و متوسط در شمال و شمال غربی محدوده موردمطالعه قرار دارند و پهنه های خطر خیلی زیاد و زیاد در شرق، جنوب شرق و مرکز محدوده شهری منطقه قرار دارند. با توجه به نقشه نهایی به دست آمده از پهنه بندی سیلاب و در راستای توسعه امنیت شهری باید از ساخت وساز در محدوده های با خطر بسیار زیاد و زیاد و حریم مسیل ها و رود - دره های متعدد در شهر تالش ممانعت به عمل آید.Analysis of planning effectsin reducing vulnerability to flood risk(Case study: Talash city)
Introduction Intensification of flood vulnerability and distance from resilience is caused by human intervention and construction, regardless of the conditions of the natural bed. The impermeability of the surface of urban watersheds and the changes that occur due to the growth and development of the city, such as the destruction of vegetation, soil density, and the creation of a system for collecting and directing surface water, greatly reduce water penetration into the soil. At present, the dominant view has changed from focusing only on reducing vulnerability to increasing disaster resilience. Gilan province is also considered among the disaster-prone provinces of the country, and according to the announcement of the director general of crisis management, Gilan is one of the first 5 provinces facing natural disasters, also, its proximity to the Caspian Sea and the benefit of oil and gas fields have given it a special political-economic position. Talash city is the second most populated city of this province according to the statistics announced by the fire department and possible safety services for all kinds of natural disasters are foreseen in it. On the other hand, due to the fact that it is one of the most sensitive areas of the country when the enemy's military attacks occur. Therefore, considering the occurrence of environmental hazards in the city of Talash, it seems necessary to adopt strategies to improve it by relying on the principles of passive defense. Methodology According to the nature of the subject and its general purpose, the present research is of the type of applied studies and in terms of methodology, it is of the type of descriptive-analytical studies. In this research, the library study method including the use of books, articles and the global Internet network was used to collect information, as well as the field methods of questionnaires, interviews and consultations were used to provide information for qualitative and quantitative data analysis. The statistical sample size was determined using the Cochran method and the sampling method was based on simple random sampling. The explanation of natural hazards was examined in four economic, social, physical, institutional and environmental aspects, and its indicators and components were determined based on theoretical foundations and research background. 383 citizens and 30 individuals were selected as a research sample to measure vulnerability among the households living in Talash city. Then SPSS software was used to check the relationship between indicators and their analysis and the output of each part of the work was drawn as a map using ARCGIS software. Results Flood is one of the risks that causes financial and human losses every year in the world and in Iran, in order to prevent the occurrence and damage of flood, it identifies the areas that have a high potential in creating this phenomenon. In the current research, the vulnerability of Talash city was determined by using standard indicators, and taking into account the results of the methods and combining them with the geographic information system, the vulnerability map of the city was drawn. Looking at Figure 5, which is the output of SPSS model, it can be said that the eastern, southeastern part of Talash city is in a vulnerable condition compared to other places. It was also found that the conditions of the central core of Talash city are unsuitable and when a flood occurs, it will cause casualties and financial damage. These neighborhoods correspond to the worn-out texture and the old outskirts of the city, which are in unfavorable conditions and are seriously vulnerable. Discussion The results of Friedman's test show that in terms of indicators, the social index with an average of 2.92 is in an unfavorable condition and the institutional index with an average of 2.11 is in a favorable condition. In addition to the cases mentioned in the implementation of urban vulnerability, according to the test of the characteristics of single samples, social indicators with an average of 2.56 (first priority) and institutional with an average of 2.44 (last priority) have a role in the efficiency of urban resilience in Talash city; Therefore, at the 95% confident level, it can be claimed that the condition of the indicators in the studied area is less vulnerable in the face of floods and these variables are on average lower than the average level of 3. Spearman's correlation coefficient was tested and the results obtained that there is a significant relationship between the components of Talash city through statistical tests showed that there is a significant relationship between the degree of vulnerability and the social, economic, and physical institutional components. In other words, according to the Spearman correlation coefficient, there is a strong and positive correlation between the significant ratios. According to the output results of GIS software, it can be said that the western part of the city is naturally highly vulnerable. In the current research, it was found that the conditions in the east, southeast and center of Talash urban area are critical and during the flood, the number of casualties and financial damages will be high. Conclusion Finally, in this research, the obtained results showed that the method used in the research was able to evaluate the studied area well, and the vulnerable parts, which mostly include the eastern areas of Talash city, were displayed in the final map. The results of the investigation and other research conclusions can be lessons in the preparation of increasing resilience against reactions and crises. In such a way that the city is considered against the risks of a goal at all levels of planning, which will reduce damage in cities.
تبلیغات
