دیپلماسی آب با اعمال سناریوی کاهش مصرف انرژی منطقه سیستان (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
کمبود آب و چالش های مدیریت منابع در حوزه آبخیز رودخانه فرامرزی هیرمند، لزوم اجرای یک رویکرد نوین در دیپلماسی آب را برای مدیریت یکپارچه و سیاستگذاری مؤثر در تضمین امنیت آبی پایدار در این منطقه را ضروری کرده است. از این رو بهره گیری از تفکر سیستمی به عنوان نگرشی جامع برای سیستم های پیچیده منابع آب مورد توجه محقیقن قرار گرفته است. هدف از این تحقیق مدلسازی نکسوس بین آب، غذا، و انرژی تحت رویکرد دیپلماسی آب در حوزه آبخیز هیرمند در منطقه سیستان است. به منظور عملیاتی نمودن چنین دیدگاهی، پویایی سیستم (Dynamic System) به عنوان روش متناسب مورد استفاده قرار گرفته است زیرا توانایی تبیین و ارتباط پیچیده متغیرهای گوناگونی با روابط غیر خطی را دارد و به عنوان ابزاری تحلیلی و کارا مطرح است. داده های مربوط به مدل پویایی همبست از طریق سازمان ها و ذی نفعان منطقه جمع آوری شد. مدل شبیه سازی به کمک نرم افزار ونسیم (DSS Vensim) ساخته و دوره شبیه سازی یک دوره 31 ساله 1379-1410 در نظر گرفته شد. معادلات حاکم در هر زیرسیستم براساس معادلات پایه روش پویایی سیستم ها و نمودارهای حلقه علی هر زیر سیستم با استفاده از روابط و بازخوردهای مثبت و منفی ایجاد شد. در این پژوهش براساس تحلیل حساسیت مونت کارلو و بسط مدل تحت عنوان 4 سناریو صورت گرفته است. نتایج، نشان می دهد که سناریوهای فعلی با کمبود آب مواجه هستند، سناریوی ترکیبی مدیریت یکپارچه به منظور کاهش 50 درصد شدت مصرف انرژی، کاهش50 درصد تلفات آب در قالب نکسوس به منظور حفظ منابع و امنیت آبی پایدار در منطقه ارائه شده اند. پیشنهاد می شود به دلیل وابستگی منطقه سیستان به رودخانه فرامرزی هیرمند، اتخاذ همبست آب، انرژی و غذا با رویکرد دیپلماسی آب می تواند مناسبات هیدروپلتیکی دو کشور ایران و افغانستان بر سر مسائل آبی را از مناقشه به سمت مشارکت و همکاری هدایت کند.Water Diplomacy by Implementing Energy Consumption Reduction Scenarios in the Sistan Region
Water scarcity and resource management challenges in the Helmand River watershed necessitate the adoption of a novel approach in water diplomacy for integrated management and effective policymaking to ensure sustainable water security in this region. This study focuses on analyzing the dynamics of sustainable water resource management systems based on the nexus of water, food, and energy using a water diplomacy approach over a 31-year horizon from 2000 to 2031 in the Helmand River watershed. The results of modeling the water-food-energy nexus with a water diplomacy approach in the Helmand River demonstrate that current scenarios face water scarcity. A combined scenario of integrated management is proposed to reduce energy consumption intensity by 50%, decrease water losses by 50% through water-food-energy nexus coherence to preserve resources and ensure sustainable water security in the region. To enhance water and food security in the study area, the utilization of renewable energy sources, the provision of scientific and innovative solutions to reduce evaporation rates considering environmental conditions and water quality in the Sistan region and the international Hamon wetlands, and a strategic approach in water diplomacy are recommended.Introduction Water diplomacy has emerged as a vital tool for resolving disputes over shared water resources in recent years. It aims to foster cooperation and coordination among nations to ensure the sustainable management of Tran’s boundary water bodies, promoting stability and peace. By analyzing the complex interactions and feedback loops in water diplomacy affairs, tailored strategies can be developed to address tension and enhance cooperation, taking into account the unique climatic, political, and socio-economic conditions of each basin. Water diplomacy goes beyond mere competition, symbolizing collaboration and convergence between nations and peoples, essential for managing shared resources effectively and peacefully.This research aims to investigate the issue of the Helmand River's water problem, stemming from a lack of proper understanding of shared interests. It seeks to do so by employing the "Water-Energy-Food nexus under the framework of water diplomacy" and integrating it with dynamic system models. By offering practical recommendations for water resource managers and policymakers, it endeavors to play a significant role in the socio-economic development (human security) of the Sistan region. Furthermore, it aims to shift hydro-political relations between the two countries from conflict to cooperation, defining new relations and fostering collaboration.Case study The Helmand watershed is located in the north of Sistan and Baluchistan province and is connected to the Helmand Tran boundary river. In this region, there are three agricultural sectors, seven drinking water sectors (six urban sectors and one rural sector) and environment sector. The area of agricultural lands is 154,000 and the most crops are wheat and barley. The amount of rainfall is 50 mm per year. The average humidity is 35% and it has a dry climate. Figure (1) shows the schematic of Helmand watershed.Materials and Methods In this study, based on the system dynamics approach, modeling and simulation of sustainable management of AI resources using Vensim DSS software has been done. Based on the method of dynamic systems, the following steps are performed. 1- Understanding the system 2- Identification and definition of the problem 3- Conceptualization of the system (cause-effect relationships - informational feedbacks) 4- Formulation of the model (decision variables - physical flows of information) In order to build the flow model, the trends of the variables over time are taken into consideration, and based on these trends and based on mathematical laws and regression functions, the relationship between the variables was formulated.Discussion and Results The results, modeling the water, food, energy nexus (NEXUS) with several water diplomacy in the Trans Boundary River show that the current scenarios with water are After applying each of the policies separately on the model as well as applying the combined policy, the scenario of reducing energy consumption by 50%, reducing water loss (evaporation) by 50%, from the solution to improve the security of water, food and energy resources for ten. Next year is simulation.ConclusionIn this research, using water diplomacy to examine the interrelated subsystems of water, food, and energy, in the 31-year horizon of 1379-1410, a comprehensive model for cleaning the dynamics of systems in the Helmand Trans boundary river has been presented. This model has been calibrated and validated by examining the relationships and feedback between the changes in the subsystems, with storage and flow.The results, the modeling of the link between water, food, energy and energy with the capacity of water diplomacy in the trans boundary river show that the current scenarios are with water consumption, a combination scenario of integrated management in order to reduce the intensity of energy consumption by 50% and reduce water losses by 50% in the form of interrelated water resources, food and energy are provided in order to preserve resources and sustainable security in the region. To increase water and food security in the study area, use renewable energy, provide scientific and innovative solutions to reduce the rate of evaporation, taking into account the environmental conditions and water quality in the Sistan region and Hamon International Wetland and a strategic view in Water diplomacy is recommended.
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