جغرافیا و آینده پژوهی منطقه ای

Background: Rainfall variation is a clear indicator of climate change. IPCC in its multiple assessment reports has raised concerns over the changing climate and rising global average temperatures which could lead to widespread and catastrophic impacts on natural and human systems. The study of long-term patterns is crucial in establishing evidence of shifting climate and informing policy decisions.Objectives:This study examines the rainfall trend and variability of the semi-arid Agra district and assesses rainfall in the region. Annual rainfall for 101 years from 18 grid data points was statistically analysed for the same.Methodology: For the projection and analysis of data points, a Thiessen network polygon was drawn using QGIS 3.28.4. Each grid data point was assigned a Thiessen polygon. According to the area each Thiessen polygon covers, it was assigned weights. Then according to the weight of each polygon, annual rain in that area was calculated. Next, the data were tested for homogeneity and breakpoints using the Standard Normal Homogeneity test, Buishand’s Range test, Buishand’s U test and Pettitt’s test. After this the trend of the data was identified using Mann-Kendall and the magnitude was calculated using Theil-Sen’s estimator. R-studio was used for all the statistical analysis and graph plotting.Results: Upon conducting the Standard Normal Homogeneity test, Buishand’s Range test, Buishand’s U test and Pettitt’s test it was found that the data was non-homogeneous with the breakpoint in the year 1967. The Mann-Kendall test revealed a declining trend in the annual rainfall and the Theil-Sen estimator calculated the magnitude of this declining trend to be -1.63 for the last century.Conclusion: The findings suggest that climate change is having a significant impact on rainfall in the semi-arid Agra district. The declining trend in rainfall could have several negative consequences for the region, including water scarcity, crop failure, and increased risk of droughts. 

Background: Carrying capacity assessment is an important component of maintaining sustainability in the tourism sector. All the concerns in tourism are linked to the number of tourists that visit a particular spot. The study area has beautiful landscapes in the cold desert ecosystem as well as Buddhist distinctiveness, which attracts mass tourism. Nowadays, tourism development has introduced concerns about sustainability and establishing standards for tourist destination capabilities.Objectives: The present study aims to analyze the following objectives: 1) To assess the physical carrying capacity (PCC), real carrying capacity (RCC), and effective carrying capacity (ECC) of selected tourist spots in Nako village and 2) To calculate the parking capacity of the monastery.Methodology: The methods specified in the International Union of Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN) were used to measure the carrying capacities of particular tourist destinations in Nako. Three-level techniques were applied to assess the physical (28161 persons), real (4162 persons), and effective (2968 persons) carrying capacities.Results: Results indicate that ECC is the most suitable for the estimation, and the current situation of tourism is underexploited in the study area.Conclusion: There are very small to large types of systems found in Nako, and these systems also support different types of activities. Tourism is a highly practiced activity, and it has environmental, social, cultural, and economic impacts. They are dependent on different parameters and also vary with the changing nature of the interaction. It is found that the present status of tourism activity in the study area is highly underexploited vis-a-vis it carrying capacity.