International Economic Studies

International Economic Studies

International Economics Studies, Volume 38, Issue 1, Winter and Spring 2011 (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

مقالات

۱.

Cross-border Bank Lending in the APEC Region: the Role of Country Risks  (Text in Persian)(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

کلید واژه ها: International Bank Lending Country Risk APEC

حوزه های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۶۹۹ تعداد دانلود : ۳۳۶
This paper aims to understand the structure and determinants of international bank l ending among APEC economies. Specifically، this paper first aims to analyze whether Australia; Canada; Japan; Chinese Taipei; and the United States، which are the only APEC members for which international borrowing data are available، tend to lend more intensively to other APEC members than to non-APEC countries . This paper finds that the estimate for the APEC membership dummy in the equation for outward bank lending is positive and statistically significant، but the estimate for the APEC membership dummy becomes insignificant when a bilateral trade intensity variable is added، suggesting that closer ties in bank lending (outward) among APEC member economies are mostly due to closer ties in trade in goods . On the other hand، the estimates for the APEC membership dummy in the inward equation are negative and significant. This suggests that the 21 APEC member economies borrow more from non-APEC member economies than from the five APEC members . Finally، the five APEC member economies make fewer loans to the economies with a greater country risk. When the three disaggregated risk measures are added in the regression alternatively and concurrently، it is found that bank lending is positively associated with political and economic risks، but is negatively associated with financial risk. Thus، bank lenders from the five APEC member economies appear to make a proper assessment of the political and economic risks when making international loans
۲.

Capital Accumulation and Convergence in a Small Open Economy  (Text in Persian)(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

نویسنده:

کلید واژه ها: Convergence Heckscher Ohlin Model Specific Factors Model Land Capital Accumulation

حوزه های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۶۶۸ تعداد دانلود : ۳۷۷
Outward-oriented economies seem to grow faster than inward-looking ones. Does the literature on convergence have anything to say on this? In the dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson model، with factor-price equalization، there is no convergence of incomes. This is because with identical preferences and return to capital، irrespective of initial levels the growth rates of consumption are the same. In the Specific Factors model، there is factor price equalization in the long run، but incomes depend on endowments of non-accumulable factors. Different specifications for the intersectorally mobile factors have different implications for development (as well as convergence).
۳.

Effects of U.S. Macroeconomic Shocks on International Commodity Prices: Emphasis on Price and Exchange Rate Pass-through Effects  (Text in Persian)(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

کلید واژه ها: Commodity P rice S tructural VAR B lock E xogeneity D iagonality

حوزه های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۶۰۴ تعداد دانلود : ۴۲۲
Using a structural VAR with block exogeneity، diagonality and identifying restrictions، this paper analyzes: first، the macroeconomic linkages among the oil price، U.S. output، interest rate، money supply، general price level and exchange rate; and second، the relationships of the macroeconomic variables with the price indices of ten international nonfuel commodity groups. By assuming the block exogeneity of U.S. macroeconomic variables with respect to the international nonfuel commodity prices، the paper discusses how exogenous oil/macroeconomic shocks affect the international commodity prices. It finally explores which oil/macroeconomic shocks are important in explaining the variations in international commodity prices. The results show that the sources of major fluctuations in the international commodities differ greatly by commodity. Soft and hard commodity prices such as those of ‘seafood’، ‘industrial metals’، and ‘gold’ seem to be strongly affected by the financial factor. Moreover، for some commodities، price fluctuations are more affected by the financial factor than by the real factor، supporting the view of “financialization” of commodities. Those commodities include ‘vegetable oils and protein meals’، ‘meat’، ‘seafood’، and ‘industrial metals’. The financial factor is also an important source of fluctuations in the oil prices. Oil price shocks have effects on the volatilities of interest rates، money supply، and general price level instantly، as well as on the exchange rate instead of the general price two years after the shock. Over the whole forecasting horizon، the degree of exchange rate pass-through is low on the general price level but is positive and high on oil and nonfuel international commodity prices.
۴.

Is There a ‘Mystery of Currency Exposure’? An Empirical Study of A-Share Listed Companies  (Text in Persian)(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

نویسنده:

کلید واژه ها: Foreign Exchange Exposure Expected Foreign Exchange Rate Value of Company Foreign Change Policy

حوزه های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۵۷۸ تعداد دانلود : ۴۵۹
Given companies’ dynamic responses to expected exchange rate changes، this article improves on current methods of measuring exposure to foreign exchange rate changes by breaking down the spot exchange rate changes into expected changes and unexpected changes. The currency risk exposure coefficients resulting from an empirical analysis of Shanghai Stock Exchange A share listed companies on whose reported performance foreign exchange changes have a direct impact have a high significance level، thus demonstrating a strong correlation between the value changes of A share listed companies and RMB exchange rate fluctuations. Unexpected changes to exchange rates measure the positive impact of RMB real appreciation on company value، whereas expected changes to exchange rates measure the negative impact of RMB real appreciation on that value. Because the influence of the RMB exchange rate on the value of A-share companies is asymmetric and complex، China should further accelerate the development of an optimal exchange rate management system، particularly at the micro-economic level، given the currency risk exposure of listed companies
۵.

Convergence of Real Per Capita GDP within East Asian and Middle East Countries: Panel Unit Root Evidence  (Text in Persian)(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

نویسنده:

کلید واژه ها: East Asia Convergence Regional Integration Middle East Panel Unit Root Tests

حوزه های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۹۰۲ تعداد دانلود : ۵۶۱
This paper examines convergence of real GDP per capita in the selected East Asian countries and this relationship with selected Middle East countries during the period 1950-2009. The reason behind this refers to the fact that East Asia countries (including China، Hong Kong، Singapore، Malaysia، Indonesia، Thailand، Japan and South Korea) have been involved in achieving success arising from regional cooperation. On the other hand، the Middle East region has been well-known in producing and exporting oil (Iran، Iraq، Kuwait، Qatar، Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates). However، these countries have had strong relationship whit East Asian countries through trade and investment relations. Overall، the question is whether such strong relationship has led to a reduction in the real per capita gap between the selected countries of the both regions. To find the answer، income departures across countries are evaluated from several panel data unit root tests. We and no evidence supporting the existence of convergence process for the income in the East Asian and Middle East countries. But in each region، convergence within countries can not reject.
۶.

Technology Spillovers of FDI in ASEAN Sourcing from Local and Abroad  (Text in Persian)(مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

کلید واژه ها: Human capital China FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) Technology Spillovers ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations)

حوزه های تخصصی:
تعداد بازدید : ۷۷۵ تعداد دانلود : ۴۲۰
The effect of technology spillovers is widely considered as one of the main channels through which domestic firms benefit from FDI، and plays an important role in economic development of host countries. Based on the analysis framework for technology spillovers established by Borensztein et al. (1998)، this paper will analyse and try to figure out the development patterns of ASEAN by utilizing time-series data between 1990 and 2008 in ASEAN countries. The empirical results render a support to the existence of technology spillovers in ASEAN، which has a positive effect on the economic development of ASEAN. China’s FDI in ASEAN requires lower education threshold، also has positive effect on economy growth in six countries of ASEAN.

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