اثر نااطمینانی سیاست های اقتصادی بر معاملات اعتباری و ارزش شرکت با تأکید بر نقش معاملات اعتباری (مقاله پژوهشی دانشگاه آزاد)
درجه علمی: علمی-پژوهشی (دانشگاه آزاد)
آرشیو
چکیده
هدف: اهمیت نااطمینانی سیاست های اقتصادی و نقش آن بر تصمیمات مالی و شرکت ها در دنیای پیچیده امروزی بیش از هر زمان دیگری نمایان است. ازسویی، معاملات اعتباری یکی از مهم ترین منابع تأمین مالی کوتاه مدت شرکت هاست که در تصمیمات مدیران و تعیین ارزش شرکت نقش مؤثری دارد. در این پژوهش اثر نااطمینانی سیاست های اقتصادی بر معاملات اعتباری و ارزش شرکت با تأکید بر نقش تعدیلی معاملات اعتباری بررسی شده است.روش: داده های پژوهش برگرفته از 170 شرکت پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران طی دوره زمانی سال های 1389 تا 1400 بوده است که برای تحلیل آن ها و آزمون فرضیه ها از تحلیل رگرسیون استفاده شد.یافته ها: نتایج بیانگر آن است که نااطمینانی سیاست های اقتصادی با دوره پرداخت، تفاوت دوره وصول و پرداخت ارتباط مثبت معنادار و با ارزش شرکت ارتباط منفی معناداری دارد؛ اما با دوره وصول شرکت ارتباط معناداری ندارد. ازسویِ دیگر، دوره وصول و دوره پرداخت رابطه بین نااطمینانی سیاست های اقتصادی و ارزش شرکت را تعدیل می کند و تفاوت دوره وصول و پرداخت در این رابطه نقش تعدیلی ندارد.نوآوری: بررسی نقش تعدیلی معاملات اعتباری در ارتباط بین نااطمینانی سیاست اقتصادی و ارزش شرکت در اقتصاد نوظهور ایران می تواند جالب توجه باشد و به گسترش ادبیات پژوهش کمک کند.The Effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Credit Transactions and Firm Value with an Emphasis on the Role of Credit Transactions
The importance of the uncertainty of economic policies and its role in financial decisions and companies in today's complex world is evident more than ever. On the other hand, credit transactions are one of the most important sources of short-term financing for companies, which play an effective role in managers’ decisions and determining a firm value. Emphasizing the moderating role of credit transactions, in this study, the effect of economic policy uncertainty on credit transactions and firm value has been investigated. The data of the research were gathered from 170 companies in the Tehran Stock Exchange during the period of 2011 to 2022. Regression analysis was used to analyze the data and test the hypotheses. The results show that the uncertainty of economic policies has a significant positive relationship with the payment period, the difference between the collection and payment period, and the firm value. However, it has no significant relationship with a company’s collection period. On the other hand, the collection period and the payment period moderate the relationship between the uncertainty of economic policies and the firm value, and the difference between the collection and payment periods does not have a moderating role in this relationship. By examining the moderating role of credit transactions in the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and firm value in Iran’s emerging economy, this study can contribute to the expansion of the literature in this field.Keywords: Economic Policy Uncertainty, Company Credit Transactions, Firm value, Financing. Introduction The uncertainty of the economic policy affects the micro aspects at the company level, the financial markets, and the behavior of companies (Huayu et al., 2021). It increases information asymmetry between internal managers and external users (Shen et al., 2021). Studies have shown that the uncertainty of economic policies has had a negative effect on the financing and investment of companies (Hussain et al., 2023), but there are few studies about its relationship with credit transactions of companies. Theoretically, the effect of economic policy uncertainty on credit transactions may lead to two opposite effects. On the one hand, suppliers bear the risk that their customers will not repay their debts in the future, which is exacerbated by increasing economic policy uncertainty. Thus, companies are reluctant to offer credit deals, which is a negative effect. On the other hand, companies may consider credit transactions as a shield to maintain a long-term relationship in times of economic policy uncertainty, which is a positive effect (Liu and Dong, 2020). This study investigates the effect of economic policy uncertainty on firm value. It also deals with the moderating role of credit transactions in the relationship between the uncertainty of economic policy and the firm value. Considering the few studies in this field, and the lack of investigation of this issue in domestic research, it can help the development of research literature in this field. Materials and Methods The sample of this study includes 170 companies in the Tehran Stock Exchange over 12 years. To test hypotheses and analyze research data, regression analysis was used using Stata14 and SPSS16 software. To gather the data, the Tehran Stock Exchange library, Codal website (https://www.codal.ir) and Tehran Securities Exchange Technology Management Company (https://www.tsetmc.com)were used. To calculate the uncertainty of the economic policy, the central bank website (https://www.cbi.ir) was used. FindingsThis study investigated the effect of uncertainty of economic policies on credit transactions and firm value with an emphasis on the moderating role of credit transactions in the period of 2011-2022. Credit transactions include the collection period, payment period, and the difference between the collection and payment period. The results showed that economic policy uncertainty has no significant relationship with a company’s collection period, but it has a significant positive relationship with a company’s payment period and the difference between the collection and payment periods. Another result of the study is that economic policy uncertainty has a significant negative relationship with firm value. In addition, the collection period of a company as well as the payment period moderates the relationship between the uncertainty of economic policies and the firm value of, but the difference in the period of collection and payment does not moderate the relationship between the uncertainty of economic policies and the firm value. Discussion and ConclusionThe results based on the positive and significant relationship between the uncertainty of economic policies and the payment period indicates that managers act conservatively in economic uncertainty situations and try to reduce and control the risk of bankruptcy and uncertainty and make payments in a longer time. Another finding is that economic uncertainty has a significant negative relationship with firm value and shows that it is in accordance with the theory of information asymmetry. Regarding the moderating role of credit transactions on the relationship between economic uncertainty and firm value, the results show that in the period of high economic policy uncertainty, with the increase in the debt collection period, the firm value increases, and in time of uncertainty, the manager tries to revise the collection period of a company and act more reasonably, and the collection period of a company is meaningful considering the policies of economic uncertainty. The study also shows that during a period of high economic policy uncertainty, the firm value increases with an increase in the payment period. In periods when a company operates in a situation with high uncertainty in economic policies, this situation has a negative effect on the firm value, and when the factor of lengthening the payment period enters into the relationship between the two variables, it moderates this relationship. That is, in times of high uncertainty, increasing the payment period increases the firm value.
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