واکاوی عوامل و پیشران های اثرگذار بر توسعه پایدار مناطق شهری قزوین (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
پژوهش حاضر به واکاوی عوامل و پیشران های اثرگذار بر توسعه پایدار مناطق شهری قزوین با رویکرد تحلیل اثر مبادرت شد تا ضمن بررسی و ارزیابی شاخص های توسعه پایدار، اثرگذاری و اثرپذیری عوامل مختلف بر فرآیند توسعه پایدار این شهر نیز محقق شود. در این راستا این پژوهش از منظر هدف در رده پژوهش های کاربردی- توسعه ای و از منظر روش در دسته روش های توصیفی- تحلیلی قرار می گیرد که با رویکردی اکتشافی نسبت به شناسایی عوامل و نیروهای پیشران مبادرت نموده است. شناسایی متغیرها نیز با استفاده از روش کتابخانه ای و تکنیک های پویش محیطی (شامل جستجو در اسناد فرادست، مقالات علمی و طرح های پژوهشی) و جمع آوری اطلاعات و داده ها با تکنیک دلفی (استفاده از نظرات متخصصان و خبرگان منتخب) از جامعه نمونه 30 نفر از متخصصان مطلع و آشنا با بحث توسعه و ویژگی های شهر قزوین جمع آوری شده است. سپس با تکنیک تحلیل اثرات متقاطع یا تحلیل ساختاری در قالب نرم افزار میک مک تجزیه و تحلیل شده است. نتایج حاصله نشان می دهد در شرایط کنونی عوامل و پیشران های مورد بررسی در شهر قزوین شرایط و وضعیت ناپایداری دارند. همچنین مدیریت مناسب حریم، ارتقاء خدمات شهری و توسعه فناوری و شهر هوشمند نسبت به سایر عوامل و پیشران ها اثرگذاری بیشتری بر توسعه پایدار شهر قزوین دارند. علاوه بر این باتوجه به ظهور و بروز فناوری های نوین و نسل سوم شهرهای هوشمند در جهان، جایگاه فناوری و شهر هوشمند در شهر قزوین می تواند جایگاه ویژه ای داشته باشد و به عنوان عامل و پیشران تعیین کنندهای در توسعه آتی شهر باشد.Analyzing the factors and drivers affecting the sustainable development of Qazvin urban areas with a foresight approach
The current research was conducted to analyze the factors and drivers influencing the sustainable development of Qazvin urban areas with the impact analysis approach, so that while examining and evaluating the indicators of sustainable development, the impact and effectiveness of various factors on the sustainable development process of this city can also be realized. In this regard, this research is placed in the category of applied-developmental research from the point of view of the goal and in the category of descriptive-analytical methods from the point of view of the method, which has taken an exploratory approach to identify driving factors and forces. Identifying the variables using the library method and environmental scanning techniques (including searching in available documents, scientific articles and research projects) and collecting information and data with the Delphi technique (using the opinions of experts and selected experts) from the sample community of 30 experts Informed and familiar with the discussion of the development and characteristics of Qazvin city has been collected. Then it has been analyzed with the technique of cross effects analysis or structural analysis in the form of Mikmaq software. The obtained results show that in the current conditions, the factors and drivers investigated in Qazvin city have unstable conditions and status. Also, the proper management of privacy, improvement of urban services and development of technology and smart city have a greater effect on the sustainable development of Qazvin city than other factors and drivers. In addition, due to the emergence of new technologies and the third generation of smart cities in the world, the place of technology and smart city in Qazvin city can have a special place and be a determining factor in the future development of the city
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Qazvin is one of the cities where the difference in development in two levels or two areas can be well recognized. For many years, the approach of the north and the center has been evident in all planning and imbalances and, on the other hand, migrations. The development of the urban village, the irregular expansion of the city, the annexation of some surrounding villages to the city limits, the indiscriminate expansion of the suburban areas around the city, especially in the areas with uneven and steep topography, the dramatic increase in the price of land and housing, the increasing demand for urban life, there have been changes in the performance and appearance of this city, which will cause many challenges and issues to appear shortly, outside of the urban development plans and plans in this city. Therefore, it can be said that the current approaches and methods for planning the future are no longer the answer to dealing with these developments, and we should look for newer, more effective, and creative methods concerning thinking and acting about the future. The existence of such conditions requires conducting strategic studies based on the identification of factors and driving forces affecting the city. For this purpose, the main issue raised in the current research is to identify effective and efficient factors that somehow affect the future of Qazvin city and its sustainable development. By identifying the driving forces and factors, we can provide a necessary background and platform for efficient decision-making in sustainable urban development.
Methodology
This research is placed in the category of applied-developmental research from the goal point of view and in the category of descriptive-analytical methods from the method point of view, which has taken an exploratory approach to identify the factors and driving forces. The required data has been collected using the library-document method and the survey method from the sample community of 30 experts who are knowledgeable and familiar with the discussion of future forecasting and the conditions and characteristics of Qazvin. The data collection method is snowball because of the nature of the subject under investigation. The variables have been identified using environmental scanning techniques (including searching in documents, scientific articles, and research plans) and the Delphi technique (using the opinions of selected specialists and experts). Then, the technique of cross-effects analysis in the form of Micmac software has been applied.
Results and discussion
Examining the influence and effectiveness of the factors and driving forces on the sustainable development of Qazvin urban areas showed that the proper management of the border, upgrading of urban services, and development of technology and smart city have been more effective than other factors and driving forces. On the other hand, the decline of the city's ecological capacity is one of the factors that has been very effective. The ranking of the factors also shows that the proper management of the city boundary, the improvement of urban services, and the development of technology and the smart city are the three factors and drivers that have had the most direct impact, and in contrast to the improvement of urban services, the decline of the ecological capacity of the city and the role of Qazvin. As the province's economic hub, they have had the most direct impact. The results from the distribution of factors and drivers show that Qazvin's current conditions and status and its factors and drivers are unstable. This system’s critical, effective, and decisive driver are facing difficulties, and the Qazvin system is in an unstable state. A large number of agents and drivers are in an intermediate position.
Examining the position of each of these variables shows that in the field of sustainable development, the proper management of Qazvin city boundaries, which can affect the city's future development, is an important issue. Suppose the management of the city boundary cannot maintain the immediate boundaries of the city. In that case, forming unplanned and informal settlements and environmental destruction can create new problems for Qazvin shortly. Also, paying attention to the dimensions and aspects of modern technology and their application in providing services and city management, which is based on the use of creative and innovative industries, can affect many dimensions and aspects of Qazvin city, and paying attention to these factors can affect the future of the city. It is important to take into account the worn-out textures of Qazvin city. Being one of the country's oldest cities, neglecting its infrastructure maintenance can lead to various social, economic, and environmental problems in the future. Recreating worn-out textures and paying attention to historical textures can revive the capacities of the city and have significant effects on social and economic dimensions.
Conclusion
In the current situation, the investigated factors and drivers in Qazvin city are unstable. Also, proper management of privacy, improvement of urban services and development of technology and smart city have a more significant effect on the sustainable development of Qazvin than other factors and drivers. In addition, due to the emergence of new technologies and the third generation of smart cities in the world, the place of technology and smart city in Qazvin can have a special place and be a decisive factor and driving force in the city's future development.
Funding
There is no funding support.
Authors’ Contribution
All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work.
Conflict of Interest
Authors declared no conflict of interest.
Acknowledgments
We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.
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