تأثیر فرم شهری در تولید سفرهای خودرو مبنا با تأکید بر توسعه شهر کم کربن، مطالعه موردی: نواحی ترافیکی شهر زنجان (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
سفرهای خودرو مبنا از مهم ترین عوامل آلودگی هوای شهرهای ایران می باشد. در این راستا، سیاست های مختلفی برای کاهش آلودگی هوای شهرها اتخاذ گردیده که عمدتاً عاری از هرگونه برنامه ریزی فضایی می باشند. در نظریاتی همچون شهر کم کربن، کاهش آلودگی هوا از طریق برنامه ریزی های فضایی همچون تغییر در فرم شهری جهت کاهش سفرهای خودرو مبنا مدنظر می باشد. سفرهای خودرو مبنا در شهر زنجان، مسئله تولید گازهای گلخانه ای را به معضل بزرگی در این شهر تبدیل کرده است؛ معضلی که با برنامه ریزی فضایی و تأکید بر ساختارهای فرم شهری، قابل تعدیل می باشد بنابراین در این مقاله به بررسی تأثیر فرم شهری در تولید سفرهای خودرو مبنا، با استفاده از روش های آمار فضایی پرداخته شده است. جهت نیل به این هدف، چنین فرض شده است که عناصر فرم شهری همچون ترکیب کاربری ها، دارای بیشترین نقش در تولید سفرهای خودرو مبنا می باشند؛ نوع تحقق در این مقاله کاربردی بوده و روش بررسی آن توصیفی-تحلیلی و همبستگی می باشد. نتایج حاصل از به کارگیری روش موران نشان می دهد که معیارهای به کاررفته دارای خودهمبستگی مکانی می باشند و استفاده از روش رگرسیون وزنی جغرافیایی جهت تحلیل ارتباط مندی متغیرها بسیار مفید می باشد. نتایج حاصل از رگرسیون وزنی جغرافیایی نشان می دهد که معیار تراکم جمعیتی با ضریب اهمیت 0.31 دارای کمترین اهمیت در الگوی سفر شهری بوده و معیار ترکیب کاربری ها و تراکم خیابان ها به ترتیب با ضریب اهمیت 0.46 و 0.49 دارای بیشترین اهمیت در الگوی سفر شهری می باشند. بر این اساس می توان چنین نتیجه گرفت که معیارهای فرم شهری دارای تأثیر بیشتری در تولید سفرهای خودرو مبنا شهری می باشند و باید بیشتر موردتوجه مدیران و برنامه ریزان شهری قرار گیردThe impacts of Urban Form in production of Automobile-based travels with emphasis on Low Carbon City Development The Case Study of Zanjan Traffic Zones
Automobile-based travel is one of the most important factors in the air pollution of Iranian cities. So, variety policies have been adopted to reduce the urban air pollution that are without spatial planning. In low-carbon cities, reduction of air pollution is noticed through spatial planning as changes in the urban form to achieve low automobile-based travels. The automobile-based travels in Zanjan, is changed greenhouses gasses emission to a huge problem. The problem that will adjust by changes in spatial planning and urban forms. In this paper, influence of urban form in the automobile-based travels are assigned by Spatial statics methods. To achieve the aim of this paper is hypothesized urban forms measures –as land use mix- has the most influence in the automobile-based travels. The type of this paper is Applicable and the used methods are Analytical and regression. The results of the application of the Moran method shows that the criteria are in clustered pattern and therefore have spatial autocorrelation and using location-based regression methods such as geographical weight regression is very useful. The results of the geographical weight regression show that the population density with significance coefficient of 0.31 has the minimum importance in the urban travel pattern and the criteria of mix land use and street density with the coefficient of 0.46 and 0.49 have the highest importance in the urban travels pattern. So, as a result, urban form criteria are more important in forming the urban travel patterns and it should be given more attention in urban management
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Automobile-based travels are the most important factors in the air pollution of Iran cities. So, variety policies have been adopted to reduce the urban air pollution that are devoid of any spatial planning. In low-carbon cities, reduction of air pollution is noticed through spatial planning such as change in the urban form to reduce automobile-based travels. So, from a theoretical perspective, low carbon city offers principles and criteria based on urban forms to achieve sustainable behaviors of travel (such as decreasing automobile-based travels, using public transportation, pedestrian-oriented development and so on).
Methodology
The type of research in this article is applied and its method is descriptive-analytical and correlation. The important urban form criteria to achieve low carbon cities are land use mix (or land use diversity), increasing of density, design of roads, increasing of public transport services etc. Therefore, systematic management of automobile-based travels through urban form structures in Iran cities is very important. In this study, Zanjan is selected as a case study. The automobile-based travels in Zanjan have made greenhouse gasses as a major challenge that can be mitigated by spatial planning and emphasis on urban form structures. Therefore, this paper investigates the impact of urban form on automobile-based travels production by using of spatial statistics methods. Also, in order to achieve the aim of the paper, it has been assumed that urban form elements, such as land uses, play the most important role in generating automobile-based travels. Since urban form criteria are considered as spatial-based ones, ignoring spatial effect leads to increase estimation error in modeling. Therefore, in this paper the geographical weight regression (GWR) and the Moran Index are main methods to investigate spatial autocorrelation and spatial correlations between variables.
Result and discussion
At first the criteria were extracted through library studies as well as environmental knowledge. Then the criteria are changed to GIS layers. Subsequently, these layers are transformed to zonal data by spatial statistics methods. And finally, Moran I and GWR were used to assess the spatial correlation of the criteria. The results of the methodology show that in spatial researches where the criteria have spatial-based changes, models such as the Moran I and the GWR are very useful to apply. Also, the results of applying the Moran method emphasize on the spatial autocorrelation of the criteria were used and the effectiveness of the utilization of geographical weighted regression to analyze the correlation of the variables. So it is suitable to use methods such as GWR. Model accuracy and performance statistics such as AICc (Akaike Information Criterion) in the GWR, increase the reliability of the model output. Furthermore, the standard residual values in the traffic zones of Zanjan show that the estimated quantities are different from observed ones. The outcomes of the GWR show that the population density with significance coefficient of 0.31 has the least importance in the urban travel pattern. The highest population density of Zanjan is in the areas connected to the urban central texture that have the most population zones with advantages such as access to urban cores. Also, combined of land uses and street congestion with 0.46 and 0.49 coefficients are the most important in urban travel pattern, respectively. The peak of the streets congestion in the city center has attracted transportation systems in this part of the city. The focal statistics have been used to investigate the spatial composition of land uses. Accordingly, the city's core has the largest variety of urban land uses. This has resulted in the highest population absorption in these zones. So that, there is a correlation of 0.7 between land use composition and population density in the central texture. This illustrates the importance of urban form criteria in the urban travel patterns of Zanjan; Therefore, urban density is less important than urban form factors and urban form factors are the basis of urban travel patterns.
Conclusion
The most important measure of urban form that should be prioritized for Zanjan urban managers to achieve low carbon development is the combination of land uses. Based on this, the creation of urban neighborhoods with the suitable land uses composition, will reduce the number of urban travels to the city's central texture and it will possible the development of a low-carbon city. Findings of this paper can guide the urban managers in order to develop a sustainable urban form pattern with the lowest carbon production.
Funding
There is no funding support.
Authors’ Contribution
All of the authors approved the content of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work.
Conflict of Interest
Authors declared no conflict of interest.
Acknowledgments
We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.
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