شناسایی و تحلیل پیشران های ملی سیاست گذاری توسعه ایران (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
توسعه مهم ترین هدف کلی افراد و جوامع در عصر حاضر و تلاش های توسعه ای در همه جوامع جزو اهداف اصلی کشورها بوده برهمین اساس، هدف این پژوهش شناسایی و تحلیل پیشران های ملی سیاست گذاری توسعه ایران است. روش انجام این پژوهش کیفی از نوع آینده پژوهی که با استراتژی تحلیل روند انجام و همه روندهای ملی حاکم بر وضعیت سیاست گذاری توسعه ایران با مطالعه گزارش های داخلی و خارجی ازجمله مطالعه پژوهش های موجود و ادبیات نظری و مصاحبه های عمیق و جلسات هم اندیشی انجام و در معرض نقد و بررسی خبرگان و فعالان سیاست گذاری توسعه در ایران گذاشته شده است. جامعه آماری شامل همه خبرگان و فعالان سیاست گذاری توسعه در ایران که 25 نفر از آن به صورت مصاحبه و شرکت در جلسات هم اندیشی در فرایند پژوهش مشارکت داشته اند. انتخاب این نخبگان بر اساس روش نمونه گیری گلوله برفی بوده و تجزیه وتحلیل داده در بر مبنای تحلیل روند از نوع تحلیل پیشران ها است. در این پژوهش 25 پیشران مهم و اساسی در 5 حوزه اجتماعی، فناورانه، اقتصادی، زیست محیطی، سیاسی و در سطح ملی 9 پیشران مهم اجتماعی برای سیاست گذاری توسعه کشور شناسایی شده که شامل؛ لغو حمایتگری فرهنگی، ایجاد چشم انداز مشترک، گفتگوی ملی برای توسعه، جلب مشارکت همگانی، رفع فقر و نابرابری، شمول اجتماعی، سیاست گذاری کنترل جمعیت، سیاست گذاری توسعه شهری و تغییر رفتار کنشگران فردی هستند، پیشران های ملی فناورانه نیز شامل 5 پیشران مهم؛ استقلال نهاد آموزش عالی، تمرکز بر آموزش وپرورش، گسترش حاکمیت علم، توسعه علم و فناوری هسته ای صلح آمیز و پذیرش فناوری هستند، پیشران های اقتصادی در سطح ملی نیز 3 پیشران مهم دیده بانی و اندازه گیری توسعه، لغو حمایتگری اقتصادی و گردشگری برای توسعه ایران هستند؛ اما در حوزه زیست محیطی نیز چهار پیشران؛ سیاست گذاری آمایش سرزمین، سازگاری و انعطاف پذیری با تغییرات اقلیمی، سطح دسترسی به انرژی پاک و جلوگیری از آلودگی صنعتی هستند. نهایتاً پیشران های سیاسی و حاکمیتی شناسایی شده در سطح ملی شامل 4 پیشران؛ توسعه نقد افقی، تصمیم گیری متفکرانه، تقویت جامعه مدنی و پیاده سازی سیاست های تدوین شده هستند. این پیشران ها در حوزه های مختلف اجتماعی، فنی، اقتصادی، زیست محیطی و سیاسی هستند که به لحاظ درجه اثرگذاری به ترتیب پیشران های سیاسی حاکمیتی، پیشران های زیست محیطی، پیشران های فناورانه، پیشران های اقتصادی و درنهایت پیشران های اجتماعی-فرهنگی وجود دارند، اما بر اساس درجه اهمیت به ترتیب؛ مسائل اقتصادی، فنی اجتماعی،فرهنگی، زیست محیطی و نهایتاً پیشران های سیاسی در اولویت هستند.Identification and Analysis of the National Leading of Iran's Development Policymakers
1- INTRODUCTIONDevelopment has been the most important overall goal of people and societies in this era. Accordingly, development efforts in all societies have been among the main goals of countries. Also, development is a common global concern among many countries, and development should provide a high quality of life and health of the population, preserve the environment, and also maintain a level of comfort and well-being suitable for the lives of citizens. The importance of development in developing countries is so much that trying to find the right way and method for its development and policy has become one of the most basic actions of countries and governments. Therefore, the correct policymaking of development programs is a new approach that planners are looking for today. Undoubtedly, in some countries, especially East Asian countries, their economic development has been the product of policy development. Development policies in different countries have been followed based on fundamental differences and generally do not follow a common pattern. consider development policies from individual and health aspects, consider prioritize the effectiveness of policies in focusing on marginal areas, and finally consider prioritize spatial planning. Although development policies in sensitive political areas have been influenced by economic necessities, how regional players and great powers compete. But the main reason for the success of development policies is due to the leading sectors that affect the process of these policies and development. Based on this, this research aims to look to the future and by using future research approaches, using the approach of identification and analysis the policy leading of Iran's development in the national sphere, to identify the policy accelerators of Iran's development by elites and experts. 2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORKSince the beginning of development theories, various approaches have been proposed and there have been different development theories from the past until now. The first period of presenting development theories dates back to the years 1945 to 1970. In this period, development was considered as economic growth and equivalent to it. The basis of development writings is the modernization paradigm, which consider growth as a linear process. Therefore, planning to invest in the sectors that had a relative advantage, in order to increase the growth of the gross national product, was placed at the head of the affairs.The second period, which spans from 1970 to 1980, was formed through observation the ineffectiveness of development theories in the first period. The experience of countries showed that following the economic growth model to access development, although in some cases it led to an increase in GDP and rapid economic growth, but negative consequences such as increase in poverty, improper distribution of income, environmental pollution, growth of marginalization in the big cities of developing countries caused. This caused research to be carried out on development strategies and policies that pay attention to a more balanced distribution of development, so the social dimension of development, which was more focused on the proper and more humane distribution of economic growth achievements, was raised and the basic needs of humans were met in communities, poverty alleviation, equally distribution of income were raised as requirements for development. The third period coincides with the implementation of the economic adjustment program with the policies of the World Bank; Liberalizing trade, changing domestic prices to global prices, improving revenues through expanding tax bases and reforming taxes, reducing the government budget deficit by reducing public expenditures, especially subsidies, were among these reforms needed for development.The fourth period, which covers from 1980 to 1990, according to the experience of Southeast Asian countries, showed that the government can play a role as the main agent of development if appropriate economic policies are implemented. This approach, which is referred to as the post-development approach, is a school of thought that questions the idea of national economic development.Finally, since 1990, the development paradigms have shifted from their traditional foundations to two new approaches such as sustainable development and social development. The concept of sustainable development is based on the undeniable fact that ecological considerations can and should be applied in economic activities. An important development that took place in this school was that the school of sustainable development criticized many of the basic assumptions and concepts of most of the thinkers in this field of the basic principles of sustainable development in the field of the neoclassical economic paradigm. 3- METHODOLOGYThe method of conducting this qualitative research is a prospective study, which was carried out with the strategy of trend analysis and all the national trends governing the state of Iran's development policy by studying internal and external reports, including. The study of existing researches and theoretical literature and in-depth interviews and brainstorming sessions have been conducted and subjected to the criticism of experts and development policy activists in Iran. The statistical population of this research includes all development policy experts and activists in Iran who are experts and experts in development and policy making, 25 of whom have participated in the research process in the form of interviews and participation in brainstorming sessions. Data analysis was based on trend analysis of the type of leading. 4- RESULTS & DISCUSSIONIn this research, 25 important and fundamental leading items have been identified in 5 social, technological, economic, environmental and political fields. At the national level, 9 important social leading for the country's development policies have been identified, which include; Canceling cultural patronage, creating a common vision, national dialogue for development, attracting public participation, elimination poverty and inequality, social inclusion, population control policy, urban development policy, and changing the behavior of individual activists. Also, the national technological engines include 5 important engines. Independence of higher education institution, focus on education, expansion of science sovereignty, development of peaceful nuclear science and technology, and acceptance of technology. The economic leading items at the national level are the 3 important leading of monitoring and measuring development, canceling economic support and tourism for the development of Iran. But in the environmental field, four leading items are considerd: land use policies, adaptability and flexibility to climate changes, level of access to clean energy and prevention of industrial pollution. Finally, the political and governance leading items identified at the national level include 4 leading: development of horizontal criticism, thoughtful decision-making, strengthening of civil society and implementation of formulated policies. 5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONSThese leading are in different social, technical, economic, environmental and political fields, which exist in the order of the degree of influence of the sovereign political leading, environmental drivers, technological leading, economic leading and finally socio-cultural leading, but based on the degree importance in order: economic, technical, social, cultural and environmental issues and finally political drivers are given priority. Since the experience of development in many countries has been different and different actors have shouldered the burden of developing societies. It is suggested that the most important experience should shorten the hand of government interference in development policies and development should be stimulated in the community. It also gives the talented actors a field for development so that they can be supported in the field of action. On this basis, development needs to have a vision and a clear horizon and realize some kind of plan and plan to move from the existing point to the desired point. Keywords: Development, Future Research, National Leading, Iran.
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