قدرت یابی طالبان و رویکرد جمهوری اسلامی ایران (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
قدرت گرفتن دوباره طالبان در افغانستان با خروج نیروهای آمریکایی به دنبال تصرف کابل، پایتخت این کشور رخ داد و سبب شد جمهوری اسلامی ایران در مواجهه با همسایه های شرقی اش دچار برخی تناقض ها شود. از سویی، چون ابعاد تحولات برای ایران روشن نیست، به آنچه می گذرد به دیده تهدید و تردید می نگرد و وجود توطئه در تمامی تحولات را دور از ذهن نمی داند. در این مقاله با استفاده از روش کیفی و در چارچوب واقع گرایی تهاجمی داده ها را گردآوری و از روش تحلیل مضمون استفاده کرده ایم. این نوشتار با هدف شناسایی رویکرد جمهوری اسلامی ایران با توجه به قدرت یابی دوباره طالبان شکل گرفته و به دنبال پاسخ این پرسش هستیم که جمهوری اسلامی ایران چه رویکردی در قبال طالبان افغانستان داشته است؟ در پاسخ این فرضیه را مطرح می کنیم که خروج زودهنگام نیروهای آمریکایی از افغانستان و سقوط کابل به دست طالبان بار دیگر شرایط پرآشوب خاورمیانه و معادلات ژئوپلیتیک آن را دست خوش تغییر کرده و بر منافع ایران تأثیر گذاشته است. از سوی دیگر، طالبان از بعد ایدئولوژیک به عنوان یک گروه افراطی سُنی، همچنان تهدیدی برای امنیت ملی ایران به حساب می آید . نتایج این پژوهش نشان می دهد براساس موقعیت و نقش حساس ایران در منطقه، مواضع ایران با توجه به رویکرد طالبان متفاوت خواهد بود.The issue of Taliban gaining power and the approach of the Islamic Republic of Iran
In a strategic shock, the Taliban in Afghanistan entered Kabul on August 15, following a crisis caused by the Western military withdrawal, the reluctance of the Afghan government and national security forces to fight, and the Taliban's will for power. The early withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan and the fall of Kabul to the Taliban will have important consequences for the region and international politics more broadly. The developments in Afghanistan with the influence of the Taliban on Afghanistan and the formation of a government by this group have become a matter of concern for the neighboring countries of this country. Iran, as one of Afghanistan's neighboring countries, adopted policies against the Taliban's control over Afghanistan and the formation of a government by this group. Afghanistan, as one of the eastern neighbors of Iran, which has a water and land border with Iran, is naturally a part of the Iranian plateau and has many similarities with Iran in terms of history and culture. The eastern borders of Iran are one of the most important two-way crossings of human, economic and cultural exchanges for the two countries. In terms of geopolitics, in the eastern borders of Iran, respectable Baloch people live, whose relatives are also present in the two countries of Afghanistan and Pakistan, who are always provoked by elements related to foreign intelligence and espionage services for various ethnic and religious reasons. Also, over the years, these borders have been one of the most important security challenges regarding human and drug trafficking. More than millions of Afghans have tasted the problems of these borders in the last four decades; The recent one-year developments in Afghanistan and the re-emergence of the Taliban in Afghanistan's chess scene have also caused many Afghans to flock to Iran's borders, which continues. The Taliban regained power in Afghanistan with the withdrawal of American forces following the capture of Kabul, the capital of this country, and caused the Islamic Republic of Iran to face some contradictions in facing its eastern neighbors. Iran is not clear-cut, it looks at what is happening as a threat and doubts and does not consider the existence of conspiracy in all developments far from mind. This article collected data using qualitative method and in the framework of aggressive realism, and thematic analysis technique was used to extract the content. This article was formed with the aim of identifying the approach of the Islamic Republic of Iran regarding the Taliban's re-establishment of power and seeks to answer the question, what approach has the Islamic Republic of Iran adopted towards the Afghan Taliban? Also, the authors will examine this hypothesis by stating that the early withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan and the fall of Kabul to the Taliban has once again changed the turbulent conditions of the Middle East and its geopolitical equations and led to an impact on Iran's interests. and on the other hand, the Taliban, as an extremist Sunni group, is still considered a threat to Iran's national security from the ideological point of view. The results of the research show that based on Iran's position and sensitive role in the region, Iran's positions will be different with regard to the Taliban's approach. According to the nature of the subject and in order to answer the question in this research, the descriptive-analytical method has been used. In the descriptive-analytical method, the researcher, in addition to revealing what is, describes and explains the whys and hows of the problem and its forms. The method and tool of collecting information and data is in the form of documents in which the researcher has collected the required information using reliable sources or interviews with experts and experts in this field. The findings of the article show that Iran's positions will be different according to the Taliban's approach. If the Taliban moves towards the distribution of power and includes other ethnic groups, especially the Shiites and Turkic-speaking people, in the structure of the government, considering that Iran ideologically has a lot in common with the Shiites and Hazaras of Afghanistan, and all these issues are in favor of Iran. is, the goal of the Taliban can be aligned with the interest of the Islamic Republic of Iran. But if the Taliban's approach is based on the monopoly of power, considering that the ideology of this group is different from Iran and they are closer to Saudi Arabia, it seems that the relations between Iran and the Taliban will not be friendly. The Taliban is an ultra-conservative political and religious faction that emerged with the withdrawal of Soviet forces and the collapse of the communist regime in Afghanistan. This group, which was founded by Mullah Muhammad Omar in the southern part of Afghanistan, centered on the Pashtun people. The Taliban, with their religious and extremist ideology, took drastic measures. In August 2021, the Taliban was able to start a massive advance with the withdrawal of American forces, and it was a good opportunity for the Taliban in Afghanistan to dominate the whole of Afghanistan in a short time. On the one hand, the unfavorable political-security situation, economic crisis, social issues, extreme ideology as internal factors, and on the other hand, the decisions and actions of international powers, including the United States, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia, as external factors in the formation of the phenomenon of Talibanism. Afghanistan has been effective and has enabled the Taliban to quickly advance inside Afghanistan and take control of the capital and force the previous government to flee and become the undisputed ruler of Afghanistan. Considering that the situation in Afghanistan has been messed up for many years. These disturbances can be a threat to the countries of the region, especially the Islamic Republic of Iran. With this consideration, the dimensions and security issues that have arisen against the Islamic Republic of Iran have caused Iran to deal with Afghanistan with a tactical approach with the aim of managing and repelling threats in its foreign policy.
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