عوامل اصلی و پیشران های مؤثر و شکل دهندۀ هندسۀ نظم نوین در منطقۀ جنوب غرب آسیا تا افق 1407 (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
منطقه جنوب غرب آسیا با تحولات و پویایی های جدیدی در دهه های اواخر قرن بیست ویکم روبه رو بوده است که شناسایی تحولات ایجادشده در این منطقه، نوید شکل گیری نظم نوینی را می دهد. این نظم نوین بازیگرانی دارد که در شکل گیری آن نقش دارند. این پژوهش با رویکرد آینده پژوهانه به دنبال شناسایی مهم ترین عوامل اصلی و نیروهای پیشران شکل دهنده هندسه نظم نوین در منطقه جنوب غرب آسیا تا افق 1407 است. نوع پژوهش کاربردی با رویکرد آمیخته اکتشافی است. جامعه آماری آن به صورت هدفمند شامل 17 نفر از صاحب نظران در حوزه امنیت ملی و روابط بین الملل است. با مطالعات کتابخانه ای و انجام مصاحبه به صورت جلسات ذهن انگیزی و توفان فکری، 47 عامل اصلی احصا شدند که در دو بُعد عوامل اصلی پیشینِ شکل دهنده به نظم در منطقه جنوب غرب آسیا و عوامل کنونی شکل دهنده به نظم نوین در منطقه جنوب غرب آسیا دسته بندی شدند. در ضمن 19 نیروی پیشران شکل دهنده هندسه نظم نوین منطقه ای در منطقه جنوب غرب آسیا تا افق 1407 شناسایی شدند. صحت سنجی عوامل اصلی از طریق آزمون های اختصاصی نرم افزار SPSS (t تک نمونه ای و ضریب توافقی کندال) انجام و اثرگذارترین پیشران ها با استفاده از نرم افزار میک مک و ماتریس تحلیل اثر متقابل از میان 19نیروی پیشران شناسایی که شامل طرح معامله بزرگ قرن آمریکا، جنگ روسیه و اوکراین، برقراری راه ابریشم جدید، مناقشه قره باغ، تلاش برای حذف ایران از راه گذر زنگزور و گسترش ایدئولوژی مقاومت هستند.Key factors and effective driving forces shaping the geometry of the modern order in the region of Southwest Asia until the horizon of 2029
The region of Southwest Asia has been faced with new developments and dynamics in the last decades of the 21st century, and the identification of the developments created in this region promises the formation of a new order. This new order has actors who play a role in its formation. This research, with a future-oriented approach, seeks to identify the most important main factors and driving forces shaping the geometry of the modern order in the region of Southwest Asia until the horizon of 1407. The type of research is applied with a mixed exploratory approach. Its statistical community purposefully includes 17 experts in the field of national security and international relations. With library studies and conducting interviews in the form of brainstorming and brainstorming sessions, 47 main factors were counted, which were categorized in two dimensions: the former main factors shaping the order in the Southwest Asia region and the current factors shaping the new order in the Southwest Asia region. In addition, 19 driving forces shaping the geometry of the new regional order were identified in the region of Southwest Asia until the horizon of 1407. Validation of the main factors through specific tests of SPSS software (single-sample t and Kendall's coefficient of agreement) and the most effective driving forces using Micmac software and interaction analysis matrix among the 19 driving forces identified, which include the Great Deal of the Century, the Russian-Ukrainian war, The New Silk Road, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the attempt to eliminate Iran from the Zangzor Pass, and the expansion of the ideology of resistance. With the defeat of the Ottoman Empire in the First World War, the victorious countries decided to divide this empire and annex the Ottoman possessions to their lands. This action took on an official aspect when the foreign ministers of the two colonial countries, England and France, signed an agreement known as the Sykes-Picot Agreement, which provided the political and geopolitical conditions for the division of the borders of the Ottoman Empire into several Arab countries and present-day Turkey. In this agreement, the Arab Middle East region was divided between the three countries of France, England and Russia. With the signing of this treaty, the eastern parts of Turkey joined Russia and France also colonized parts of Turkey along with areas of Syria and Lebanon. In the meantime, England acquired major parts of Iraq as well as Palestine. France and England agreed to turn their Middle Eastern possessions into numerous eminence lands (Kuehn, 2021). With the division of the Ottoman Empire into several countries after the First World War by the victorious Western powers in the war, which led to the formation of the present-day nature of West Asia, this region has always faced many tensions and challenges, and the Western interventionist forces played a prominent role in these instabilities. As a strategic region, West Asia has always been subject to many tensions and challenges. Examining contemporary history shows that the root of these tensions should be sought in the two world wars and the developments after them. When the Western powers made fateful decisions without the presence of West Asian countries. After the victory of the Allied countries in the World War, these countries decided to divide and divide the Ottoman Empire, which was called the "sick man of Europe", in line with their interests. The Sykes-Picot Agreement, the Sour Agreement and the Balfour Declaration and the letters exchanged between McMahan and Sharif Hussein clearly reveal the goals of this colonial plan, which resulted in agreements that brought instability and insecurity to the region decades later. During the Cold War, Southwest Asia had a special place in international relations for the United States. The rich oil reserves and the Soviet effort to penetrate into the West Asian region were the main reasons for its importance for this country. In the region of Southwest Asia, the actors were arranged in such a way that Saudi Arabia and Iran were inclined towards the Western bloc and America and Syria, Egypt and Iraq were inclined towards the Eastern bloc. Meanwhile, the Soviet Union pursued its foreign policy goals by supporting communist movements. This formed process created a conflict-seeking approach between these two superpowers, which, in addition to the rivalry between the countries of the region, turned these countries into suppliers of the goals, desires and ideals of these governments. The occurrence of the Islamic revolution in Iran and the atmosphere that prevailed in the region from this revolution created currents in the years after the revolution in the region of Southwest Asia and sometimes the world, which had many effects and consequences both for the countries of the Southwest Asia region and for the superpowers of the East and The West was looking for In this research, with a future-oriented approach, we seek to identify and explain the main factors and effective drivers that shape the geometry of the modern order in the region of Southwest Asia until the horizon of 1407. To achieve this goal, we are seeking answers to these three questions: - Which main factors and driving forces are the main factors and previous driving forces shaping the order in the region of Southwest Asia? - What are the main factors and current driving forces shaping the new order in Southwest Asia? - What main factors and driving forces have played an effective role in shaping the geometry of the new order in the region of Southwest Asia until the horizon of 1407? In this research, with a future-oriented approach, we sought to identify and explain three categories of driving forces: the first category, the former driving forces that shaped the order in the Southwest Asia region, which include 24 main factors that make up the driving forces; The second category is the current driving forces shaping the new order in the Southwest Asia region. In this research, in this section, we identified the number of 23 main factors that make up the driving forces. The third category is related to the driving forces that are considered as the effective driving forces shaping the geometry of the new order in the region of Southwest Asia until the horizon of 1407, which are 19 driving forces. Regarding the third category, by using Mimak futurology software and the interaction analysis matrix, the most effective driving forces were also identified, which include the six driving forces of America's Great Deal of the Century, the war between Russia and Ukraine, the establishment of the New Silk Road, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the attempt to remove Iran from Zangzor was the way to spread the ideology of resistance. Considering that driving forces and main factors are vital and important parts of the scenario writing process, the following suggestions can be made: - In relation to future researches, a research topic about future scenarios of modern order geometry in South West Asia region can be a good topic to present. Considering the identification and determination of three categories of driving forces in this research, their application and exploitation can develop the strategic depth of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the region, Latin America and North Africa. - The findings and consequences of this research can lead to preventing wrong analysis and going in the wrong direction.
تبلیغات
