آینده پژوهی قومیت گرایی و تأثیر آن بر امنیت جمهوری اسلامی ایران (مورد مطالعه: قومیت عرب) (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
ناآرامی های گه گاه در مناطق جنوب غرب ایران به ویژه خوزستان و مناطق عرب نشین ایجاب می کند به مسائل و تحولات این منطقه بیشتر توجه شود. برای پیش بینی وضعیت امنیتی کشور در سال های آینده، توجه به وضعیت قومی، فرصت ها و چالش های قومی بسیار ضروری است. هدف از انجام این پژوهش شناسایی متغیرهای کلیدی و پیشران های تأثیرگذار بر آینده قومی پیش روی جمهوری اسلامی ایران، با درنظرگرفتن مرزهای جنوب غربی کشور است. این پژوهش از نظر ماهیت و هدف، کاربردی و از نظر نوع روش، توصیفی پیمایشی و با توجه به آینده پژوهانه بودن آن، اکتشافی نیز هست. در این پژوهش برای شناسایی متغیرهای کلیدی و تشکیل گویه های پرسشنامه از روش پایش محیطی استفاده کرده ایم. جامعه آماری پژوهش با توجه به رویکرد آینده پژوهی به شکل پنل خبرگان است. شناسایی متغیرهای کلیدی این پژوهش به روش ماتریس متقاطع و با استفاده از نرم افزار میک مک است. برای شناسایی سناریوهای محتمل از نرم افزار سناریو ویزارد استفاده کرده ایم. یافته های این پژوهش نشان می دهد 7 متغیر ذخایر عظیم نفت وگاز، توسعه نیافتگی، حمایت های عربستان و امارات از مخالفان، جنگ هشت ساله تحمیلی، فعالیت جریان وهابی، وجود ریزگردها و رقابت های منطقه ای به عنوان متغیرهای کلیدی استخراج شده از نرم افزار میک مک، آینده پیش روی جمهوری اسلامی ایران را در زمینه قوم عرب به وجود می آورند. نتایج نشان می دهد، 6 سناریوی چالشی با سازگاری و امتیاز بالا، پیش روی آینده جمهوری اسلامی ایران است که از میان آن ها 1 سناریو بسیار قوی و محتمل و 5 سناریو ضعیف به دست آمدند. سناریوی بسیار قوی به دست آمده، سناریوی ادامه روند موجود است.The future study of ethnicity and its impact on the security of the Islamic Republic of Iran (Case of study: Arab people)
Occasional unrest in the southwestern regions of Iran, especially Khuzestan and Arab-inhabited regions, requires more attention to the issues and developments in this region. In order to predict the country's security situation in the coming years, it is absolutely necessary to pay attention to the ethnic situation, ethnic opportunities and challenges. The purpose of this research is to identify the key variables and drivers influencing the ethnic future of the Islamic Republic of Iran, taking into account the southwest border points of the country. The future study of factors affecting national security has always been the concern of the rulers and strategists of every political system, because national security is the primary condition and of course the most important condition for the preservation, survival, progress and development of any country in all fields. The future is something that governments can design and shape with their targeted actions. In order to act wisely, they must have sufficient knowledge and understanding of the consequences of their actions and those of others. Also, check the reactions of others and forces that are beyond their control. These consequences will only show themselves in the future in the form of opportunities, threats and damage. According to the above-mentioned contents, the terrorist attack in Ahvaz on September 31, 2017, the attack on the police station in 2018, the unrest in 2018, and similar actions cannot be considered unrelated to ethnic divergence in this region. Based on this, in order to predict the country's security situation in the coming years and design appropriate security scenarios, it is absolutely necessary to pay attention to the ethnic situation and identify ethnic opportunities and challenges, and in this research, we try to identify trends, drivers and uncertainties. , draw the possible scenarios regarding the Arab people using future research methods that will be explained below. This research is practical in terms of its nature and purpose, descriptive-survey in terms of method, and exploratory due to the future-oriented nature of the research. In foresight projects, a set of techniques are used that often complement each other and the outputs of each form the inputs of the next technique. For this purpose, to carry out the research, effective factors in the field of Arab ethnocentrism were identified and the list of factors influencing the future research of Arab ethnocentrism in the form of a matrix questionnaire was provided to 15 experts using the environmental monitoring method and review of specialist studies in this field. The experts of this research include professors and experts of security, political and social sciences specializing in the issues of the Arab people. The variables and key drivers obtained by the cross matrix method and using the MikMak software were classified and again provided to the experts. The opinions of the experts were analyzed using Scenario Wizard software, and finally, possible and compatible scenarios were identified and extracted. Among the 28 variables examined in this research, 7 key variables were identified. As can be seen in table number 4, there are two variables in the economic driver (massive oil and gas reserves and underdevelopment), in the cultural driver there is no variable, in the social driver there is one variable (the presence of micro dust) and in the political driver there are four variables (supports Saudi Arabia and the UAE were identified as opponents, the 8-year imposed war, the activities of the Wahhabi movement and regional rivalries. The findings of this research showed that seven variables of huge oil and gas reserves, underdevelopment, support of Saudi Arabia and the UAE to the opposition, imposed eight-year war, the activity of the Wahhabi movement, the presence of small dust and regional rivalries as key variables extracted from the software. Mic Mac software creates the future of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the context of the Arab people. The results show that 6 challenging scenarios with compatibility and high scores are facing the future of the Islamic Republic of Iran, among which 1 very strong and probable scenario and 5 weak scenarios were obtained. The very strong scenario obtained is the scenario of continuation of the existing trend. The decrease in oil production, the economic problems of the country and the darkening of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia are among the things that can lead the future situation of the Arab people in Khuzestan from creating opportunities to creating threats related to the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The results obtained from the Scenario Wizard software also show that although the strong scenario obtained is the continuation of the existing trend, but by looking at other scenarios, it can be concluded that other possible scenarios will lead to the continuation of the existing trend towards a relatively critical to critical situation. have found and this issue is an alarm for decision makers in the field of national security. In the meantime, one should not ignore the surprises of the instruments and the uncertainties. Corona disease, as one of the most important current uncertainties, has messed up all the economic and social equations of the countries and has led to the negative growth of the global economy. Iran is not exempted from this issue and the corona disease has had a great impact on its economic situation. Therefore, by taking appropriate decisions, relatively critical and critical scenarios should be prevented.
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