تحلیل پراکنده رویی شهرسیرجان ورشدآینده آن با استفاده از داده های سنجش از دور (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
با افزایش سریع جمعیت شهرنشین، تحولات مربوط به کالبد و فضاهای شهری شتاب آلود می شود و این تحولات منجر به پیدایش گستردگی و تغییر کاربری و تخریب و انهدام فضاهای سبز و باغات و اراضی کشاورزی در اطراف شهر و بروز پدیده ی پراکنده رویی شهری و در نهایت رشد بی قواره شهری می شود. بر حسب اهمیت این موضوع، پژوهش حاضر با هدف کلی بررسی پراکنده رویی شهری سیرجان و ادغام روستاها در گسترش شهری مورد توجه بوده است .درگسترش شهری سیرجان طی دوره آماری 1990 تا 2020 (1370تا1400) و پیش بینی ساخت وسازها برای سال 2050 (1430)انجام گردید. برای دستیابی به اهداف فوق از تصاویر ماهواره ای محدوده شهر سیرجان طی دوره آماری و نرم افزارهای SAGA، ENVI، Google Earth، GIS، TerrSet و تکنیک CA-Marcov استفاده گردید. همچنین به منظور سنجش میزان پراکنده رویی شهری در شهر سیرجان از تکنیک آنتروپی استفاده گردید. بر حسب نتایج مشخص گردید که میزان ساخت وسازها طی یک دوره 30 ساله در شهر سیرجان بیش از 35/3 برابر نسبت به شروع دوره بوده است؛ همچنین در شروع دوره بیشترین ساخت وسازها در جهت شرق شهر سیرجان صورت گرفته است، این در حالی است که در دوره پایانی مورد مطالعه ساخت وسازها به سمت شمال غرب افزایش یافته و در سال 2020 (1400)بیشترین ساخت وسازها در جهت شمال غربی صورت گرفته است. نتایج تکنیک آنتروپی نیز نشان داد که شهر سیرجان دارای توسعه شهری نامتقارن در ساخت وسازها و از درجه خزش شهری بسیار بالایی برخوردار است. نتایج زنجیره مارکوف در محیط نرم افزاری TerrSet برای سال 2050 نیز نشان داد که طی سه دهه آینده با توجه به رشد نامتقارنی که در ساخت وسازهای شهری وجود دارد، اکثریت روستاهای حومه شهر سیرجان در محدوده شهر ادغام خواهند گردید وگسترش شهر سیرجان علاوه برشکل نامتوازن به میزان بیش از حد تصور خواهد بود وچالش های زیادی در توسعه سطحی شهر ایجاد خواهد شد .The analysis of sprawl sirjan city and future growth'by remote sensing data
Analysis of Urban Sprawl of Sirjan and future growth using Remote Sensing DataExtended AbstractIntroductionLike a living creature, a city develops because of various factors such as population growth and the expanding scope of human activities. As a result, the city's physical range also increases in different vertical and horizontal directions. Cities can't accommodate the increased population; thus, a part of the population is driven around the city searching for better living spaces. In this case, rural districts near the city are the most likely to attract this kind of population. It then becomes a question of what must be done. That is, what is the solution? Studying urban development and determining its causes and factors may be helpful. In the province of Kerman, there is an important and more significant city named Sirjan, which is characterized by relatively flat terrain, and the slope is from northeast to southwest, and therefore general directions for building the body and textures of the city are northwest-southeast and northwest-southwest. A fragmented development has come about due to the city combining several villages nearby as it expanded and developed. This research seeks to answer the following question: how has Sirjan become more urbanized over the last few decades? What will Sirjan's future look like in the next 30 years? This study aims to examine Sirjan's urban sprawl during 20 years from 1990 to 2020. The sprawl directions and rates will also be examined to understand the city's urban growth balance better.MethodologyThe types of applied research and the methods used to conduct it are descriptive-inferential and analytical-combined. According to the proposed hypotheses, the current study aims to assess historical physical development and forecast future physical growth till 2050, and how the surrounding villages of Sirjan city will change. The method has been deductive and inductive in using theoretical foundations, models, and methods, and generalizing results and suggestions, respectively. Because of the interaction of human and economic issues, the research took a systemic-structural approach. The Landsat satellite photos from the period (1985-2020), with a 5-year interval, were initially employed in this study to meet the research aims and to answer the research questions. The photos were then corrected for atmospheric and radiometric effects, and the results were derived using a supervised classification approach of changes in Sirjan over the statistical period under consideration. The results were validated using the Kappa coefficient. The satellite photos used in the study came from the Landsat 5, 7, and 8 satellites, as well as the TM, ETM, and OLI sensors. Also, in this study, the entropy model has been used to determine the urban misery and sprawl of Sirjan.Result and Discussions The photographs associated with each statistical period have also been processed. In this part of the report, the number of land uses (constructs) has been described by geographical directions separately. To determine the area of structures in each geographic direction, first satellite images in SAGA software are cut according to the study area and then processed based on samples taken from Google Earth. ENVI is used to classify the output of this software. Then, the output from the GIS program is called, and the area of Sirjan's constructions is determined in terms of each geographical direction. The Markov chain model was used to assess changes in building in the study region during the next 30 years leading up to 2050, as well as to demonstrate which settlements in Sirjan will be integrated with the city's progress. The Markov chain model utilizes cover classes as state or chain states. According to projections, the city of Sirjan will have a total area of 90.84 square kilometers in 2050, thanks to the expansion and integration of Najaf. The above is also supported by the statistical period's entropy results in terms of eight geographical directions. According to the findings, the entropy value for the eight directions of Sirjan city buildings is 2.0258, which is lower than the standard and final value of 8, which is 2.0794, indicating the accuracy of the technique results. Secondly, the calculation value, equivalent to 2.0258 and is extremely close to the standard and final levels indicates that urban sprawl in Sirjan has been confirmed in terms of geography and intensity.ConclusionThe study of the progress of Sirjan city during the statistical period of 2020-1990 showed that the most construction was done in the east at the beginning of the period. However, toward the end of the period, the northwest had the most significant number of constructions. In the northwest direction, the percentage was more than in other directions. It is estimated that the area of this geographical direction at the beginning of the period was 0.875 square kilometers, while at the end of the period, it was 6.513 square kilometers. Since the beginning o
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