سناریوهای آینده تأثیر اقلیت های مذهبی در ارتقای امنیت ملی (مورد مطالعه اهل سنت) (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
شناخت آینده و ایجاد تصویری از آن در زمان حال، از وظایف مدیران و سیاست گذاران کشورها است. ایجاد شناخت موردنظر باید به کمک روش های مناسب پیش بینی و تحلیل انجام شود. هرقدر این روش ها اتکاپذیرتر باشند، نتایج تحلیل و پیش بینی اهمیت بیشتری خواهد داشت. روش های تحلیل و پیش بینی مختلف هستند. در این میان سناریوسازی یکی از روش های مطالعه آینده و تحلیل امنیتی است که حاصل مطالعات پژوهشگران در تحلیل رخدادهای امنیتی است. در این پژوهش با توجه به فراگیری اهل سنت نسبت به سایر مذاهب موجود در کشور می کوشیم ضمن شناسایی کنشگران و پیشران ها و عدم قطعیت های مؤثر اهل سنت ایران در امنیت ملی به این پرسش پاسخ دهیم که سناریوهای آینده تأثیر اهل سنت در امنیت ملی ایران کدامند؟ در این پژوهش مجموعه ای از روش ها و تکنیک های رایج در فرارشته مطالعه آینده را به کار می گیریم و آینده اهل سنت را با رویکردی میان رشته ای مطالعه می کنیم. این پژوهش ازنظر هدف، پژوهشی کاربردی و از نظر روش کیفی است و اقدام اصلی در این پژوهش سناریونویسی به روش جی بی ان است. بر این اساس در قالب چهار سناریو آینده اهل سنت ایران را ترسیم می کنیم.Future scenarios of the impact of religious minorities in promoting the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran (Sunni case study)
Knowing the future and creating an image of it in the present is one of the duties of managers and policy makers of countries; Creating the desired knowledge should be done with the help of appropriate forecasting and analysis methods. Certainly, the more reliable the above methods are, the more important the analysis and prediction results will be. Analysis and forecasting methods are different. Meanwhile, scenario creation is one of the methods of future study and security analysis, which is the result of many researchers' studies in the analysis of security incidents. Based on scenario building, these researchers tried to understand security events and later they used this method in civilian and economic issues as well. Nowadays, scenario building is one of the important methods in formulating national security strategies. Therefore, considering the importance and necessity of the coordination and coherence of the country's strategic management in the fields of interaction with the Sunnis and its role in the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran, under the title of future scenarios of the influence of religious minorities in the national security of J.A., it tries to use a scientific approach while The drawing of the mentioned scenarios will provide a relatively comprehensive view to the decision-makers and decision-makers in the Sunni area
In order to create the necessary preparations for the start of the scenario writing process, first, the scenario writing team consisting of experts in various fields, stakeholders and future researchers, as well as the bank of experts, was formed, and then the issue of scenario writing was explained.At first, the issues and influencing factors in the formation of the future of the Sunnis and its effect on the promotion of the national security of the Islamic Republic are mentioned. These factors have been obtained during the study and review of previous researches and backgrounds, theoretical literature, as well as interviews with experts and a number of key players in different Sunni fields. In the following, these factors have been presented in the form of a questionnaire to experts and specialists in various fields to comment on their influence on the future of Sunnis. By summarizing the opinions and holding a panel of experts, 19 main factors were identified among these factors, which were provided to them separately in the second round of asking for opinions from experts to determine the importance and uncertainty of each. For the second round, it has been tried to get the participation of first-level experts who have a holistic and comprehensive approach to the issue of social messengers in the theoretical field and who are key actors in this field. The results of surveying experts' opinions determined the importance and uncertainty of each of the factors and their ranking, and in another panel, by analyzing the content of these factors, we found two main factors and key uncertainty that form the main framework and structure of the scenarios. By considering two modes for each of these key uncertainties and their intersection, four scenarios are formed, which after forming and evaluating them, have been introduced and written as the main scenarios for the future of Ahl al-Sunni and its effect on improving the national security of the Islamic Republic. According to the results of the conducted research, it seems that the conducted research can be considered as the beginning and the first scientific and practical step to manage the atmosphere of uncertainty in the future of the Sunnis of Iran and its effect on the promotion of national security, which is within the limits of the possibilities and difficulties caused by the limitations. access and has been able to visualize the future of Iran's Sunnis and its effect on improving national security with four scenarios, the summary of the drawn scenarios is as follows:
The first scenario, which is the ideal scenario of the thesis, will be implemented when the regional power increases and the concerns and threats to Iran's territorial security in the borders decrease, and the elites and symbols of ethnic, scientific, artistic, sports, etc., Sunni citizens are in favor of national convergence. Currently, the nations and some governments of the neighboring countries emphasize the pivotal role of the Islamic Republic of Iran and declare their sense of security and survival in the win-win game and companionship with the Islamic Revolution of Iran.
The second scenario happens when the extreme and deviant movements of Shia have infiltrated the governing and non-governing structures, including various government institutions and bodies, and the ground has been prepared for the increase in the activity of sects and extremist Shia movements.
The third scenario occurs when the tension between Iran and some reactionary countries, including the United States, on the Persian Gulf has increased. Terrorist groups in the western and eastern borders of the country have put approximate scholars and regime affiliates on their agenda.
The fourth scenario happens when the pressures and cruel sanctions against the Iranian nation have increased, and Shia and Sunni extremist groups have succeeded in creating propaganda and terrorist cells inside the society and have threatened the national security of the Islamic Republic. In this scenario, on the one hand, due to the lack of presence of the elites and close people in the government body, they have established a non-confrontational mechanism between Shiites and Sunnis.
Although the Islamic Republic of Iran is a national society in general, it is a composite society in which there is a lot of diversity, multiplicity and multiplicity. This wide spectrum includes the set of elements that form the ethnic, racial, cultural, linguistic, religious and religious composition of the country. From a religious point of view, Iranian society is a plural society; In the sense that the population structure in Iran is faced with the phenomenon of ethnic and cultural pluralism as well as religious and religious pluralism. In this sense, although the official religion of the country is Islam and the official religion is Shiism, alongside the majority of Shiite Muslims, there are many religious and religious minorities who form a considerable number both in terms of quantity and in terms of the intensity of religious affiliations and tendencies. They have a loyal and helpful following. This issue by itself can be considered as a platform for reducing the acculturation factor and social cohesion of the society; Therefore, it is necessary to maintain solidarity and national unity, vigilance and long-term policies based on the first scenario to properly manage this issue.
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