پایداری اقتصادی در مناطق پیراشهری اسلامشهر (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
سنجش پایداری اقتصادی، به عنوان ابزاری در فرآیند برنامه ریزی توسعه پایدار بوده و لذا توجه به آن در سیاست گذاری ها و برنامه ریزی ها امری اجتناب ناپذیر است. هدف اصلی این پژوهش سنجش پایداری اقتصادی محدوده پیراشهری شهر اسلامشهر و روستاهای اطراف خود است. نوع تحقیق کاربردی و ازنظر ماهیت توصیفی، تحلیلی می باشد. روش گردآوری اطلاعات به صورت اسنادی- میدانی (پرسشنامه و مشاهده) صورت گرفته است. جامعه آماری در این پژوهش را ساکنین شهر اسلامشهر و 22 روستای دارای سکنه در 4 دهستان (احمدآباد مستوفی، ده عباس، فیروز بهرام و چهاردانگه) در محدوده پیراشهری شهر اسلامشهر تشکیل داده اند که طبق سرشماری سال 1395دارای 548620 نفر جمعیت بوده است که بر اساس فرمول کوکران حجم نمونه 384 نفر تعیین شده است؛ و روش نمونه گیری به صورت تصادفی انجام شده است. جهت تجزیه وتحلیل اطلاعات از آمار توصیفی (میانگین و انحراف معیار) و آمار استنباطی (آزمون تحلیل عاملی، تحلیل تشخیصی و رگرسیون لجستیک، مدل چند معیاره TOPSIS- fuzz) از نرم افزار Spss و ٍExcle استفاده شده است. نتایج تحقیق نشان می دهد که درروش تحلیل عاملی که میزان پایداری اقتصادی منطقه برابر با 41/0 است که ازنظر پایداری اقتصادی در وضعیت مناسبی قرار ندارد. نتایج حاصل از مدل شباهت به گزینه ایدئال فازی نشان می دهد که سکونتگاه احمدآباد با برخورداری از شاخص شباهت 79/0 بیشتر از سایر مناطق در رتبه اول برخورداری از پایداری شاخص های توسعه اقتصادی قرار دارد. بر مبنای نتایج به دست آمده از رگرسیون چند متغیره، به ترتیب: 1- عامل رفاهی تجاری، 2- عامل جمعیتی، 3- عامل صنعتی بیشترین سهم را در پایداری اقتصادی منطقه پیراشهری اسلامشهر را دارد.Economic stability in suburban areas of Islamshahr
Introduction
In recent years, metropolitan and urban areas of Iran have experienced incomplete urbanization that has been the result of oil capitalism. The level and scope of urban sprawl has raised concerns among managers and citizens. It is obvious that the uncontrolled growth of cities has not only changed the landscape of cities but also has caused fundamental changes in the economic pattern of the city and surrounding villages. This issue has also had an increasing impact on the functional developments and the economy of these areas. This resulted in consequences such as poverty and abnormality, unemployment, wide gap in living standards, inequality in areas, etc.
Meanwhile, the city of Tehran is experiencing the suburban phenomenon and the negative effects of urbanization such as rapid environmental decline, unplanned land-use changes, severe service shortages, migration, class gap, unemployment, working children, etc., are elevated. The amount of migration to the metropolis of Tehran made surrounding areas absorb the overflow of development from Tehran, so they have quickly become cities by attracting migrated population. Islamshahr city, unlike other old cities, has not been created due to its natural and environmental capabilities, but the emergence of this city due to its location in proximity of Tehran, where became a residential destination for thousands of migrated people who have entered this area due to repulsive factors in Tehran such as land and housing. In this research, the economic indicators of the suburbs of Islamshahr have been assessed using factor analysis and TOPSIS.
Research Methods
This research is an applied and developmental study and in terms of method is descriptive-analytical. The study area is the inhabitants of cities and villages in the suburbs of Islamshahr. The information required for this research has been obtained from library sources, the results of general censuses, referring to various departments and organizations, and the census of residents of the study area. 25 indicators have been extracted which have been transformed into 3 factors using factor analysis model. Instead of using the conventional method of principal component analysis in factor analysis, the standard method has been used to obtain factor scores,In the next part of the model, similarity to the fuzzy ideal option (FTOPSIS) is used.
The statistical population in this study is the residents of cities and villages in the suburbs of Islamshahr, which have a population of 492,145 people, which according to the Cochran's formula, the sample size has been determined as 384 people.
Results and discussion
The eigenvalue of the first factor is 11.524, which calculates and explains 52.848% of the variance. In this factor, 17 indicators have been loaded and considering that some indicators are among the welfare indicators and others are among the trade indicators, this factor has been named as trade and welfare factors.
The eigenvalue of the second factor is 7.321, which calculates and interprets 29.645% of the variance. This factor has five loaded indicators, all of which are demographic indicators that can be called the population factor.
The eigenvalue of the third factor is 3.846, which calculates and interprets 13.141% of the variance. In this factor, three indicators are loaded, all of which are industrial indicators. Therefore, this factor can be called an industrial factor.
The results of fuzzy TOPSIS calculations and the similarity index (CI *) confirms the high rate of gap in the process of economic sustainability. Among these, the best similarity index (0.79) is related to the city of Islamshahr, which has made this region higher than other regions. Also, the lowest similarity index is related to the ratio of active to inactive population (0.460), which is in the most deprived metropolitan area of Islamshahr in terms of indicators of economic stability. In general, the amount of economic stability according to this analysis is equal to 0.45, which is lower than the average (0.5). This shows that the area of Islamshahr is not in a good position in terms of economic stability.
Conclusion
Based on the results obtained from multivariate regression, respectively: 1- commercial welfare factor, 2- demographic factor, 3- industrial factor. They have the largest share in predicting the degree of enjoyment of the suburbs of Islamshahr. Therefore, commercial, demographic and industrial welfare factors are suggested as a priority for the development of this region.
According to the results of the research and the issue of justice, as well as citizens' access to facilities and services, the following suggestions are presented:
1- Using the reverse justice in a way that has the priority of economic development of low-income areas.
2- Economic policies should be in line with the spatial planning of Tehran and Islamshahr.
3- Recognizing the potentials and capabilities of each region and planning and investing in them and of course the appropriate productivity of each region.
4- Planning to reduce the unemployment rate in the regions and increase the employment rate.
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