Monetary transmission mechanism

Reliable measures of the size and direction of changes in monetary policy are very crucial for examining the effects of monetary policy on the economy. Monetary Condition Index (MCI) can be used as a tool to assess the stance of monetary policy. This index is defined as the weighted average of different monetary transmission mechanism relative to their values in a base period. The weights in MCI are the relative importance of each channel in transmitting monetary shocks in the economy. In this paper we construct a new MCI for Iran that characterizes three key innovations. First, for estimation of MCI’s weights, we employ system of equations (VARX) in order to solve the problem of exogeneity arising from single equation method. Second, beside exchange rate and credit channel, it includes asset price channel. Third, we utilize a quarterly data set which seems more plausible for studying short-run dynamics regarding the monetary policy. Our estimated index over the 1991Q2-2014Q1 indicates that in more than 74% of quarters under consideration, monetary condition in Iran is easing relative to the base period (2004:2). The empirical results show MCI leads roughly 1 quarter ahead of inflation. Therefore, this index can be used as the leading indicator of the inflation rate. JEL Classification: E51; E52; E58; C53

Monetary environment as the core of financial system has been functionally designed in light of the new set of extensive goals including financial stability, sustainable noninflationary growth, external sustainability, and price stability. A comprehensive monetary policy framework is proposed for Iran which systematically include the new goals, stance variables, instruments, transmission mechanism as well as timely monitoring system. Accordingly, macroeconomic data provides a reliable momentum to evaluate how far the macroeconomic condition is away from the monetary goals in case the data is timely-consistently compiled by policy makers. A wide variety of policy instruments are occasionally applied in the context of the new monetary policy framework by the conventional transmission channels which are technically tracked via monetary condition index, early warning system, leading indicators, and stress tests that give a timely feedback to policy makers to draw contemporaneously a picture of macro prudential stance. Given the prominent share of asset market (housing and capital) in the whole financial and nonfinancial markets in Iran, the monetary policy is empirically required to streamline assets market’s flow of funds instead of extra concentration on broad money growth and lending channel. Meanwhile, balance sheet channel is obviously expected to be more effective against monetary policy stance rather than lending channel in order to achieve monetary goals. In this regard, housing and capital markets are both significantly considered more efficient to finance flow of funds and fiscal deficit. JEL Classifications: E52, E59, G10

The housing market plays a significant role in the economies of countries, and as an asset price channel, is considered as one of the main channels for monetary transmission mechanism. Considering the structure of the country's economy and the characteristics of housing as a capital commodity, the assessment of the impact of housing investment on inflation is important. This research evaluates the impact of housing investment, as an asset price channel, on inflation in Iran's economy by self-regression model with the possibility of changing the regime of Markov (MS-VAR) and using seasonal data for the period of 1369-1395. In general, it is concluded that the investment channel, as an asset price channel, in the housing sector contributes to inflation in each period of recession and boom, and increases inflation. Also, the channel does not affect the exchange rate during the recession, but it leads to a devaluation of the national currency during the boom.