business cycles

According to accounting literature, value relevance of earnings is caused by the relationship between earnings and return. Had the earning response related to negative returns exceeds positive ones, it can be concluded that management has in fact revealed the bad news via conservative methods; this influences the relationship between earnings and return, which increases the amount of value relevance of earnings. Researches show that disclosing policies (the relationship between earnings and return) of business firms are sensitive to business cycles, thus it can be argued that if the business cycle faced contraction or expansion, the reaction of earnings against negative returns would differ comparing to positive returns. The aim of this research is to assess accounting conservatism and value relevance of earnings in business cycles. The samples of this study are 100 companies listed in TSE; their information for the period of 2007 to 2016 were tested. The results from regression test demonstrate that accounting conservatism and value relevance of earnings is much higher in contractionary economic cycles comparing to any other economic cycles. This result is pursuant to Jenkins et al (2009) research

This paper studies bank loans over the business cycles in Iran to determine the role of Iranian banks in stabilizing credit. By estimating the long-run relations using dynamic OLS and fully modified OLS estimators, the findings show that real bank lending is positively related to real GDP in the long-run providing evidences of the pro-cyclicality of bank lending in Iran. Hence, Iranian banking system has not operated far away from the conventional banking system in that they have not the ability to stabilize credit over business cycles. The results of Toda-Yamamoto’s (1995) Granger non-causality test indicate a unidirectional causality running from real GDP to real bank lending. Moreover, the impulse response functions from estimating vector autoregressive models suggest positive and statistically significant response of real bank lending to shocks from real GDP reaffirming the pro-cyclicality of bank lending in Iran. JEL Classification: C22, E32, G21

The housing market plays a significant role in the economies of countries, and as an asset price channel, is considered as one of the main channels for monetary transmission mechanism. Considering the structure of the country's economy and the characteristics of housing as a capital commodity, the assessment of the impact of housing investment on inflation is important. This research evaluates the impact of housing investment, as an asset price channel, on inflation in Iran's economy by self-regression model with the possibility of changing the regime of Markov (MS-VAR) and using seasonal data for the period of 1369-1395. In general, it is concluded that the investment channel, as an asset price channel, in the housing sector contributes to inflation in each period of recession and boom, and increases inflation. Also, the channel does not affect the exchange rate during the recession, but it leads to a devaluation of the national currency during the boom.

Managers engage in income smoothing either to communicate private information about future earnings to investors (informativeness hypothesis) or to distort financial performance for opportunistic purposes (opportunism hypothesis). Business cycles and the monitoring role of institutional ownership may affect the earnings informativeness of income smoothing. The purpose of this research is to examine the effect of business cycles and institutional ownership on the earnings informativeness of income smoothing. 140 firms listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange are selected as the sample over the period 2010-2016. The results showed that, during recession, income smoothing does not effectively communicate information about future earnings and thus earnings are less informative. Moreover, higher levels of institutional ownership are associated with a decrease in their monitoring role and decrease in the earnings informativeness of income smoothing. Finally, the results suggested that the relationship between institutional ownership and the earnings informativeness of income smoothing is not significantly affected by business cycles.