بابک شفیعی

Background and Theoretical Foundations: The analysis and evaluation of the potential power of various states in global arenas have consistently been subjects of scholarly attention and discussion within the field of international relations. This inquiry becomes particularly salient during pivotal historical moments and major shifts in global civilization, especially during periods of power transition: Which country is poised to become the next superpower? Historically, nations such as Iran, Greece, Italy, Spain, France, and England, and more recently, the United States, have played significant roles in shaping global civilization and exerting considerable influence worldwide. A key factor contributing to their power has been their maritime strength; their formidable presence at sea has historically served as an indicator of their overall power. Methodology: The objective of this article is to present a comprehensive geopolitical model designed to assess the potential power of China through a geopolitical lens. The research methodology employed is qualitative and exploratory. Given the importance of geography and human agency, this study is based on an algorithm that incorporates variables grounded in geopolitical knowledge. The "power cloud probability" model conceptualizes countries as comprehensive systems employing quantitative data analysis and multi-modelling methods to examine the formation of maritime superpowers and assess China's maritime potential. Findings and conclusion: This model enhances our understanding of complex geographical phenomena and facilitates the analysis of global power dynamics and influence. It provides a deeper insight into how geographical elements interact with geopolitical actors. Moreover, the modeling process streamlines research efforts by creating a structured framework for simultaneously examining multiple variables. China's emergence as a maritime superpower has been significantly influenced by its interactions with other countries, particularly the United States, its neighboring states, and nations along the Belt and Road Initiative routes. Although China has made substantial strides in enhancing its maritime capabilities, challenges persist. Its relationships with other countries will continue to play a crucial role in shaping its future maritime trajectory.