نقش مالکیت بانکی در تأثیر اعتبارات بانکی بر سرمایه گذاری بخش کشاورزی ایران: کاربرد روش MIDAS-GARDL (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
بخش کشاورزی همچنان سهم قابل توجهی در اقتصاد ایران دارد اما متاسفانه سرمایه گذاری در بخش کشاورزی ایران بسیار پایین است. از این رو، افزایش سرمایه گذاری در این بخش اهمیت دارد. بدین منظور، لازم است عوامل تقویت کننده این متغیر شناخته شوند. یکی از این عوامل، تسهیلات بانکی است که بر اساس برخی نظریه های اقتصادی، موجب افزایش رشد و سرمایه گذاری می شود. برخی از اقتصاددانان بر این باورند که این تأثیر به نوع مالکیت بانک (دولتی یا خصوصی بودن آن) بستگی دارد. گروهی نیز معتقدند که تسهیلات بانک های دولتی بیشتر موجب سرمایه گذاری می شود اما برخی دیگر خلاف این نظر را دارند. بنابراین، ضروری است پژوهش هایی بدین گونه پرسش ها پاسخ دهند که «نوع مالکیت بانک ها چه نقشی در اثرگذاری تسهیلات بانکی ایفا می کند؟». در این راستا، هدف مطالعه حاضر بررسی تأثیر تسهیلات بانکی بر سرمایه گذاری بخش کشاورزی با تأکید بر نقش مالکیت بانک ها بود. بدین منظور، از روش MIDAS-GARDL استفاده شد. داده های فصلی مورد استفاده از زمستان 1388 تا زمستان 1401 را پوشش می داد و جامعه آماری تحقیق شامل بخش کشاورزی ایران بود. یافته های تحقیق نشان داد که در کل، تأثیر تسهیلات بانکی مثبت است، اما تسهیلات اعطایی بانک های دولتی در مقایسه با بانک های خصوصی تأثیر بیشتری بر سرمایه گذاری بخش کشاورزی دارد (مطابق دیدگاه طرفداران دخالت در اعطای تسهیلات بانکی)؛ افزون بر این، درآمدهای نفتی تأثیر مثبت و نرخ ارز و نرخ سود تأثیر منفی بر سرمایه گذاری دارد. با توجه به نتایج پژوهش حاضر، پیشنهاد می شود که تسهیلات بانکی کافی با نرخ سود پایین با اولویت پرداخت توسط بخش دولتی در راستای تشویق سرمایه گذاری در بخش کشاورزی اختصاص یابد.Role of Bank Ownership in Impact of Bank Credits on Investment in Agricultural Sector of Iran: Application of MIDAS-GARDL Method
Introduction: Due to the vast benefits and advantages of investment, understanding the role of different accelerators of investment has always been one of the most challenging issues for economists. The significant differences between regions in different periods to achieve investment have made economists more interested in identifying the factors affecting investment. Meanwhile, agricultural investment, especially in developing countries, plays a crucial role in poverty reduction, food security, and development of other sectors. One of the great objectives of Iranian economy in current year is the ‘production jump’. Therefore, the issue of the investment such as agricultural investment is a necessity for Iran. Given the importance of agricultural investment, researchers try to determine different factors affecting the investment in agricultural sector and their mechanisms to affect it. One of these variables could be bank credit. Despite the relative consensus of economists on the positive impact of credit on growth and investment, some emphasize that the influence of public and private bank lending on these variables is different. In other words, bank ownership and lending from the public or private banks can play a non-identical impact on investment and growth. Banks' lending behavior is influenced by their ownership structure and specific objectives. Some economists believe that state-owned banks' lending decisions are more affected than private banks. Therefore, the role of these banks can be different from that of the private banks in economic growth and investment. On the contrary, proponents of private banking argue that the inadequate financial structure, the high volume of delinquent receivables, the inefficient allocation of credit, and the lack of dynamism in banks are due to government management practices on banks. A review of previous studies shows that few studies have examined the influence of bank ownership and their credit allocation on agricultural investment. Therefore, the present study used quarterly data to investigate whether private or public banks play a role in the impact of bank credit on the investment of the agricultural sector or not. Materials and Methods: Based on the theoretical foundations, and previous studies such as Önder & Özyıldırım (2013) as well as access to required quarterly data, in this study, the following regression within an equation was used to examine the impact of bank credit on the agricultural investment: Where LI, LC, LP, LR, LO, and LER would be the logarithm forms of the agricultural investment, agricultural credits, the share of credits granted by private banks to the total credits granted in the agricultural sector, interest rate, oil income, and exchange rate, respectively. The LR and LO were the traditional variables of investment models. The LC and LER were used many times in previous studies, but the LP variable entered the agricultural investment model for the first time in this study. The symbols of a, e , and b indicated constant, the error term and slope coefficients, respectively. For each of the variables, except exchange rate, quarterly data from the fourth season of 2010 to the fourth season of 2022 were gathered from Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran (CBI). For exchange rate, the monthly data of the CBI was used. Seasonal data have the advantage that they allow the researcher to examine the relationship between variables in terms of seasonal variations. Due to the seasonal behavior of the agricultural sector, the use of seasonal data was of particular importance. All value variables were based on the constant value of 2011. In this Study, the Hylleberg et al. (1990) test was used to test unit root. To Estimate the model, Generalized Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (DARDL) model was used with Mixed-Data Sampling (MIDAS) model in a combination form of MIDAS-GARDL approach. Results and Discussion: The unit root test did not give the consistent results. Therefore, the ARDL family ougtht to be used, because it could be used even if there was a combination of I(0) and I(1) variables in the model. The results showed the oil income in the agricultural sector had a significantly positive effect on the investment of the agricultural sector (in accordance with economic theories and empirical studies0; in addition, the exchange rate had a significantly negative effect, including the negative effect of the increase in the exchange rate, on the investment of the agricultural sector; the interest rate had also a significantly negative erect, indicating the negative effect of the increase in the agricultural interest rate on the investment of the agricultural sector. The coefficient of agricultural credit was similar to the variable of investment in the sector where both of them were positive while their impacts were relatively estimated lower (therefore, the increase in agricultural credit caused to increase agricultural investment0. As shown by the study results, the ratio of private bank credit to total bank credits did not have a significant effect on the investment of the agricultural sector and so, the more bank credits were granted by the public banks, the greater the impact on the investment of the agricultural sector. Conclusion and Suggestions: According to the study results, the following policy recommendations are presented: Due to the negative impact of the interest rate on the investment of the agricultural sector, it is suggested to consider the negative impact of interest rate increase on the investment in this sector. It is also suggested to decrease the interest rate to promote the investment. Considering the positive effect of oil income on the investment of the agricultural sector, attention should be paid to the negative effects of the decrease in oil revenues especially in the conditions of economic sanctions on the investment of the agricultural sector, and this damage should be compensated through other sources such as attracting foreign investment. Considering the positive effect of bank credit on the investment of the agricultural sector, it is suggested to increase agricultural credit to increase the investment in this sector. Due to the higher impact of the credit of public banks compared to private banks, it is suggested to conduct an analysis regarding the payment of credit granted by private banks. Some experts believe that private banks direct production credits to non-productive sectors instead of productive ones in the economy. Therefore, for the success of privatization policies in Iran, it is necessary to pay more attention to the higher efficiency of private banks. In order to eliminate the possible damages of private banks in providing credits, it is better to grant more credit through the public banks with more supervision of government agencies. It should be noted that in bad economic conditions, the public banks, due to their access to more financial resources, would compensate for the decrease in the granting of facilities by the private banks, through anti-cyclical behavior which used to be more effective than that of the private banks, to maintain balance in the credit market in increasing growth and economic investment.
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