الگویی برای سنجش عملکرد شرکت های بیمه (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
سنجش عملکرد بنگاه ها و تعیین عوامل مؤثر بر آن در تصمیمات اقتصادی فعالان و ذی نفعان بازار مهم است. به همین دلیل، تا کنون سنجش عملکرد و رتبه بندی بنگاه ها از سوی محققان بسیاری موردتوجه قرار گرفته است. این تحقیق از نوع تحلیلی و توصیفی است. همچنین، این پژوهش از نوع کاربردی و کمّی است. هدف این پژوهش سنجش و ارزیابی عملکرد و رتبه بندی شرکت های بیمه بر مبنای سطح شاخص عملکرد است. در این پژوهش به بررسی اثر متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی مانند نرخ ارز، شاخص قیمت مصرف کننده و سرانه تولید ناخالص داخلی بر تغییر جایگاه و رتبه شرکت ها طی دوره ۱۳۹۵ تا ۱۴۰۰ پرداخته می شود. ریزشاخص های عملکردی شامل نسبت نقدینگی، نسبت های اهرمی، نسبت های فعالیت، نسبت های سودآوری و نسبت های ارزش بازار است. پس از تجمیع ریزشاخص ها با روش شاخص عملکرد در محیط نرم افزار R، رتبه بندی عملکرد ۲۳ شرکت بیمه فعال در بورس انجام شده است. برای بررسی علل تغییر رتبه شرکت های بیمه از تحلیل واریانس دو عاملی و مدل رگرسیون داده های ترکیبی استفاده شده است. نتایج رتبه بندی نشان می دهد که وضعیت عملکردی تعدادی از شرکت ها در سال ۱۴۰۰ نسبت به سال ۱۳۹۵ بهبود یافته ولی عملکرد سایر شرکت ها بهبود نداشته است. نتایج تحلیل واریانس دوعاملی سطح عملکرد شرکت ها نشان می دهد هم اثرات ثابت شرکتی و هم اثرات تغییر سال در تغییر رتبه شرکت ها مؤثر است.نتایج رتبه بندی نشان می دهد که، وضعیت عملکردی تعدادی از شرکت ها در سال ۱۴۰۰ نسبت به سال ۱۳۹۵ بهبود یافته ولی عملکرد سایر شرکت ها بهبود نداشته است. نتایج تحلیل واریانس دوعاملی سطح عملکرد شرکت ها نشان می دهد که هم اثرات ثابت شرکتی و هم اثرات تغییر سال در تغییر رتبه شرکت ها مؤثر است.A model for measuring the performance of insurance companies
IntroductionIt is important to measure the performance of companies and determine the factors affecting them in the economic decisions of market participants and stakeholders. For this reason, since the past decades, the issue of measuring the performance and ranking of companies has been taken into consideration by many researchers. This research is analytical and descriptive. Also, this research is applied and quantitative. The purpose of this research is to measure and evaluate the performance and rating of insurance companies based on the performance index level. Also, in this research, the effect of macroeconomic variables (such as Exchange Rate, consumer price index, and GDP per Capita) on the change of position and rank of companies during the period of 2017 to 2022 is investigated. Performance micro-indicators include liquidity ratios, leverage ratios, activity ratios, profitability ratios, and market value ratios.Methodology In this research, the effect of changing the rating of insurance companies over time is analyzed with the approach of variance analysis and the combined data regression model, and the status of the rating of the companies is described from the perspective of performance from 2015 to 2014. Therefore, this research is analytical and descriptive as well as practical. In this research, 23 active insurance companies whose trading symbols are on the Tehran Stock Exchange and whose data were available are considered, and the time period from the beginning of each company's entry to the stock exchange is from 1395 to 1400. Because some companies have entered the stock market in recent years, this time frame has been set for the rating of insurance companies. After aggregating the micro-indicators with the I-Distance method in the R software environment, the performance ranking of 23 active insurance companies in the stock market has been done. Two-factor analysis of variance (Anova) and combined data regression model (Panel Data) have been used to investigate the reasons for the change in the rating of insurance companies.Results and Discussion The ranking results show that the performance status of a number of companies has improved in 2022 compared to 2017, but the performance of other companies has not improved. The results of two-factor variance analysis of companies' performance level show that both company fixed effects and year change effects are effective in changing the ranking of companies.Conclusion According to the results of analysis of variance, both company fixed effects and year change effects are effective in changing the ranking of companies. The effects of the change of year can be due to changes in macroeconomic variables (such as exchange rate, inflation rate and annual income and even income distribution inequality), which the results of the regression model test also confirm this issue. Exchange rate changes cause changes in the prices of goods and services, inputs and outputs and in this way, it affects the expected current and future cash flows and the stock returns of the economic enterprise. At Indeed, the exchange rate change brings a series of different and even contradictory changes in the foreign and domestic sectors of the economy has the result of which can affect the performance of companies positively or negatively. Decreasing price stability on the one hand brings the risk of stagnation and on the other hand many psychological and social effects, so that increasing inflation can upset the balance between any value and cause losses to the parties of any transaction. For example, one of the types of effects of inflation can be seen as its time effect, in such a way that the longer a transaction takes, the greater the effect of inflation on it. Accordingly, the insurance industry is also not immune from the effects of inflation due to its wide connection with other macroeconomic sectors. The insurance penetration rate has a direct relationship with the GDP per capita. With a decrease in GDP per capita, which means a decrease in the purchasing power of the general public, the amount of demand for insurance products at the community level decreases, and on the contrary, with an increase in the GDP per capita, the amount of demand for insurance by the general public and the economy increases. One of the goals and benefits expected from the supervision of insurance companies is to strengthen the risk management system and focus on preventive measures. Therefore, supervisory institutions in each country use tools to monitor insurance companies. Supervisors monitor insurance companies' risk exposure using key performance indicators. Therefore, the supervisory body can adjust the risk-taking level of insurance companies based on the performance evaluation results. If a company has a high risk score and on the other hand the company's market share is high, this will mean a serious problem for the insurance industry.
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