ارزیابی تاب آوری کلانشهر اصفهان در برابر خشکسالی و کمبود آب در بازه ده سال اخیر (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
با تغییرات آب وهوایی، مخاطرات طبیعی خطیری نظیر خشکسالی و تنش های آبی گریبان گیر شهرها شده اند. به طوری که وقوع مکرر خشکسالی ها مانع توسعه پایدار شهری شده اند. درکنار این چالش ، رویکرد نوین "تاب آوری شهری در برابر خشکسالی" به مدیران شهری کمک می کند تا میزان سازگاری شهرها با تنش های محیطی را اندازه گیری کنند. از این رو هدف کلی این مطالعه ارزیابی تاب آوری کلان شهر اصفهان در برابر خشکسالی با استفاده از چارچوبی است که ابعاد و سنجه های اقتصادی، اجتماعی، زیست محیطی و نهادی را ادغام می کند. نوع پژوهش کاربردی و روش بررسی آن توصیفی-تحلیلی است. ابتدا فهرستی از سنجه ها و متغیرها بر اساس مطالعات اسنادی-کتابخانه ای تدوین شد. سپس تاب آوری کلان شهر اصفهان از سال 1390 الی 1400 در برابر خشکسالی توسط 22 سنجه و 31 متغیر مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. در ادامه به منظور تعیین میزان اهمیت هر سنجه یا متغیر از روش تلفیق سوارا بهره گرفته شد. یافته ها گویای آن است که تاب آوری کلان شهر اصفهان در سال های 1390، 1391، 1394، 1397، 1398 و 1400 در برابر خشکسالی و کمبود آب افزایش (امتیازها نزدیک به عدد یک و بین 43/0-51/0) اما در سال های 1392، 1393، 1395، 1396 و 1399 کاهش یافته (امتیازها نزدیک به عدد صفر و بین 32/0-42/0) است. به طور کلی میزان تاب آوری کلان شهر اصفهان طی دهه 1400-1390 در برابر خشکسالی در وضعیت مطلوبی قرار نداشته و شهر اصفهان نیازمند تهیه واکنش ها و اقدامات متقابلی است که اثرات و پیامدهای خشکسالی را کاهش دهد. چنانچه این مهم به وقوع نپیوندد، جامعه شهری اصفهان زیر بار آسیب های ناشی از خشکسالی و کمبود آب کمر خم می کند.Evaluating the resilience of Isfahan Metropolis against drought and water shortage in the last ten years
With global climate changes and rapid urbanization, serious natural hazards such as drought and water stress have plagued cities. So that the frequent occurrence of droughts have hindered sustainable urban development. In addition to these challenges, the new approach of "urban resilience against drought" helps city leaders and managers to measure the degree of adaptation of cities to environmental stresses. Therefore, due to the lack of resilience studies against drought at the city level and especially in the field of urban planning, The general purpose of this study is to evaluate the resilience of Isfahan metropolis against drought using a framework that integrates economic, social, environmental and institutional dimensions and measures. This research is practical in terms of the type of goal. Because it deals with guidelines, policies, frameworks and strategies to make cities resilient against urban drought. Also, the current research is descriptive-analytical in terms of its method. Since it describes the characteristics of resilient cities against drought, identifying the factors that increase and decrease the resilience of cities against drought, etc., then it is a descriptive research. And because the analysis and evaluation of resilience against this natural disaster is on the agenda in cities, it has analytical features in a research.. In this regard, first, a list of parameters and variables that lead to resilience of cities against drought was prepared based on document-library studies. Next, the resilience of Isfahan metropolis from 2011 to 2022 against drought was evaluated separately by 22 indicators and 31 variables. In the integration section of the rider method or gradual weighting evaluation ratio analysis, which is known as one of the multi-indicator decision making methods And its purpose is to calculate the weight of the criteria and sub-criteria used.Then, in order to determine the importance of each dimension, measure or variable in achieving the highest level of resilience against drought in the metropolis of Isfahan, Swara's integration method was used. In this method, the most important criterion is given the first rank and the least important criterion is given the lowest rank. In this method, experts play an important role in determining the weight of criteria. Based on these analyses, this research provides effective solutions and methods to increase the resilience and reduce the vulnerability of cities against drought, such as; "Increasing income from the tourism industry", "Increasing diversity of income and job opportunities", "Increasing the number of personnel working in the management units of water protection, environment and public facilities", "Active community participation in water and drought issues", "Increasing insurance coverage of agricultural products and unemployment of people", "Increasing the quality of urban drinking water", "Access to water, without interruptions and restrictions", "Using gray water to irrigate green spaces", "Availability of drought warning and forecasting systems", "Increasing the use of the cultivation of species resistant to drought and requiring little water", "Increasing international cooperation and benefiting from their experiences", "Establish laws and impose severe penalties for those who violate water scarcity programs and policies", "Balancing the job share of industry compared to agriculture", "Determination of water tariffs and water bills at real rates", "Preventing the drying of natural recreational green spaces", "Controlling and changing the pattern of water consumption in different sectors", "Preventing the influx of rural migrants to cities", "Protection of surface and underground water sources", "Reduction of costs of access to edible and non-edible items" and "control of air pollution and dust dispersion" have been achieved. Also, the findings show that in the years 2010, 2011, 2014, 2017, 2018 and 2022, the resilience level of Isfahan metropolis against drought increased And in the years 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016 and 2019, the vulnerability to drought was high. According to the findings of the research, it is found that the vulnerability of Isfahan metropolis to drought in 2011-2013 has increased due to the decrease of the overall score from 0.47 to 0.37 and with the decrease in the level of resilience. But in 2014, with the increase of this overall score from 0.37 to 0.49, the level of resilience has increased and the level of vulnerability to drought has decreased. Again, in 2014-2015, due to the decrease in the level of resilience, the metropolis of Isfahan suffered more vulnerability to drought. In continuation of this trend, with the increase of resilience level in 2016-2018 from the overall score of 0.38 to 0.51, the level of vulnerability has decreased. Also, in 2019, the degree of vulnerability to drought was high, and in the following year, i.e. 2022, with the increase in resilience, the degree of vulnerability has decreased. In general, it can be stated that the resilience of Isfahan metropolis was not in a good condition against drought during the decades of 2011-2022, And the city of Isfahan needs to prepare reactions and countermeasures to reduce the effects and consequences of drought. If this important thing does not happen, the urban society of Isfahan will bend under the burden of damage caused by drought and lack of water.
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