پیشران های کلیدی تأثیرگذار بر آینده مناسبات قدرت در کلانشهر تهران با رویکرد سناریونویسی (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
کلانشهر تهران به عنوان کانون تحولات در مقیاس محلی، ملی، منطقه ای و جهانی و وجود بازیگران بسیار اثرگذار در آن همواره صحنه قدرت سیاسی بوده است. همچنین، وجود پیشران های ژئوپلیتیکی بر جایگاه آن در مناسبات قدرت بیش از پیش افزوده است. مسئله پژوهش حاضر این است که پیشران ها و سناریوهای آینده مناسبات قدرت در کلانشهر تهران چگونه است؟ این پژوهش از نوع هدف، جزء پژوهش های کاربردی و ماهیت آن اکتشافی است. در این مطالعه برای پاسخ دهی به پرسش پژوهش، شاخص های آن به کمک مصاحبه چند مرحله ای با 30 نفر از نخبگان و صاحب نظران و پانل نخبگانی استخراج و برای غربال سازی پیشران ها از روش دلفی بهره گرفته شده است. داده های پژوهش حاضر با بهره گیری از نرم افزار (MicMac) و (Scenario Wizard) بررسی شده است. نتایج پژوهش در ماتریس سناریو نشان می دهد که داده ها از 45 وضعیت احتمالی مربوط به 7 سناریو با سازگاری قوی و محتمل تشکیل شده است. بر پایه تابلوی سناریو پیشران های ژئوپلیتیکی تأثیرگذار بر آینده مناسبات قدرت در کلانشهر تهران، 33/33درصد در وضعیت مطلوب، 6/41 درصد در وضعیت نیمه مطلوب و 25 درصد در وضعیت ایستا قرار داشته است که در این بین وضعیت نیمه مطلوب و سپس وضعیت مطلوب از نظر جایگاه در رتبه اول و دوم تابلو سناریو قرار دارند.Key Drivers Affecting the Future of Power Relations in Tehran Metropolis with a Scenario-Writing Approach
As the center of developments on local, regional, national, and global scales, and the site of influential actors, Tehran's metropolitan area has long been a stage for political power dynamics. Additionally, the presence of geopolitical drivers has further elevated its position in power relations. The central question of this research was this: What are the drivers and future scenarios of power relations in Tehran Metropolis? This was an applied research study with an exploratory nature. To answer the research question, indicators were extracted through a multi-stage interview process involving 30 elite experts and an elite panel. The Delphi method was also used to screen the propellants. The data were analyzed using the MicMac and Scenario Wizard software. The research results revealed 45 possible situations across 7 scenarios with strong and likely compatibilities. Based on the scenario table of geopolitical drivers affecting the future of power relations in Tehran Metropolis, 33.33% were in a favorable situation, 41.6% were in a semi-favorable situation, and 25% were in a static situation. The 1st and 2nd scenario boards were the most prominent in terms of position. Keywords: Tehran Metropolis, Urban Geopolitics, Power Relations, Scenario Writing, Future Studies.IntroductionAs the preeminent metropolis of Iran, Tehran is home to a multitude of influential actors, who play a significant role in its power dynamics. The more access these actors have to geopolitical drivers, the greater their influences will be across local, regional, national, and global scales. Consequently, understanding the geopolitical drivers shaping Tehran Metropolis is of utmost importance. Gaining insight into these drivers can significantly aid scholars of urban geopolitics in developing a more accurate and realistic vision of the future power relations between the various actors within Tehran's metropolitan area. The geopolitical importance of Tehran is only set to grow as power relations in the city increasingly transcend local boundaries. Therefore, a more thorough and pragmatic understanding of the goals and motivations of the key actors can lead to the formulation of more precise and actionable strategies. Given this context, the central question guiding the present research was this: What are the drivers and future scenarios of power relations in Tehran Metropolis? Materials & MethodsThis research employed a mixed quantitative-qualitative approach. To address the central research question, relevant indicators were extracted through a multi-stage interview process involving 30 elite experts and an elite panel and then refined using structural analysis. Based on these indicators, the future scenarios were developed. The Delphi method and an elite panel were utilized to screen and refine these indicators. Structural analysis of the research question was conducted using the MICMAC software and Scenario Wizard, employing the Cross-Impact Balance (CIB) method. The resulting futures presented were exploratory in nature. This exploratory research aimed to investigate the various interactions between forces and components, revealing a multitude of alternative future possibilities. This approach allowed for a comprehensive understanding of the complex power dynamics and geopolitical drivers shaping the future of Tehran Metropolis. Research FindingsThe scenario analysis revealed 45 possible situations across 7 scenarios with strong and probable compatibilities. Based on the scenario table, 33.33, 41.6, and 25% of the situations were in favorable, semi-favorable, and static conditions, respectively.The key findings indicated that Tehran Metropolis would maintain a central and focal position, with the status quo unlikely to change in terms of its role as the capital and economic center of the country. This was due to its ease of access to production and consumption markets, as well as its ability to attract greater investment and private sector engagement compared to other cities. Furthermore, Tehran's central and pivotal position was reflected in its political and administrative centrality, with the city continuing to host the headquarters of all government organizations and institutions. This was likely to impede the implementation of spatial justice initiatives that would allow other cities to benefit from the presence of these central institutions. The combination of economic, political, and administrative advantages had contributed to Tehran's large population and increased demand for services and facilities. This, in turn, was expected to heighten the city's influence in future electoral processes, with the outcome of many national elections potentially hinging on the voting patterns in Tehran. Additionally, the concentration of financial and economic activities in Tehran was expected to result in faster business and administrative processes compared to other cities, further strengthening the city's appeal for investors and property owners. However, to enhance Tehran's position in the realm of sports geopolitics, such as hosting major Asian and global sporting events, the city would need to focus on developing its sports tourism infrastructure and attracting relevant investments over the next decade. This could generate substantial economic benefits and employment opportunities for the metropolis.Discussion of Results & ConclusionThe scenario analysis revealed that the power dynamics within Tehran Metropolis were shaped by the city's resources and its central, focal position as the country's capital. The various actors engaged in these power relations leveraged their influences to determine the fate of the city's resources and development. The power dynamics had evolved over time, with some periods seeing the actors successfully promote the metropolis's advancement, while they had been unable to create the necessary conditions for the city's progress in other eras. To propel Tehran onto the global stage and establish it as a regional global city, the key actors had to devise and implement appropriate strategies that enable the metropolis to actively engage with international currents and trends. The analysis suggested that the path to addressing the problems and challenges faced by Tehran as the political capital lay in leveraging the drivers of the city's geopolitics and urban diplomacy. Pursuing this approach could facilitate the comprehensive development of the metropolis in the future. The findings underscored the need for the key stakeholders, including the government, private sector, and civil society, to collaborate in crafting and executing well-informed strategies that harnessed Tehran's inherent strengths and position to catalyze its transformation into a globally influential metropolis. This would require a nuanced understanding of the complex power dynamics shaping the city's trajectory and the ability to navigate them effectively.
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