تأثیر استفاده از جدول عمر بومی بر ارزش فعلی زیان آتی پرتفوی بیمه های زندگی (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
شرکت های بیمه برای محاسبه حق بیمه انواع محصولات بیمه عمر، به مفروضات متعددی نیاز دارند. یکی از این مفروضات، جدول عمری است که مبتنی بر داده های جمعیتی آن کشور باشد. از سال 1400، شرکت های بیمه ملزم شدند جدول عمر ایران را که براساس اطلاعات جمعیتی کشور طراحی شده است، برای محاسبه حق بیمه محصولات بیمه زندگی به کار بگیرند. قبل از تدوین این جدول، از جدول عمر فرانسه برای محاسبات بیمه ای انواع محصولات بیمه زندگی استفاده می شد. در این مقاله با استفاده از شبیه سازی متغیرهای مختلف، تاثیر تغییر جدول عمر از جدول عمر فرانسه به جدول عمر ایران بر ارزش فعلی زیان آتی پورتفوی محصولات بیمه زندگی بررسی می شود. علاوه بر این، محاسبات هم برای بیمه شدگان دارای ریسک سلامتی استاندارد و هم برای افرادی که از نظر سلامتی دارای مشکلاتی هستند محاسبه و تحلیل خواهد شد. براساس یافته های مقاله، به طور کلی، شرکت بیمه با ارائه پورتفوی بیمه نامه های استاندارد سود و با ارائه پورتفوی بیمه نامه های غیراستاندارد زیان می کند. اگر شرکت بیمه از جدول عمر فرانسه استفاده کند، آنگاه نسبت به جدول عمر ایران سود بیشتری برای بیمه نامه های استاندارد و زیان کمتری برای بیمه نامه های غیراستاندارد خواهد داشت.The Impact of Using Iran Life Table on the Present Value of Future Loss of Life Insurance Portfolio
Insurance companies need several assumptions to calculate premiums for life insurance products. One of these assumptions is a life table. Since 1400, insurance companies were required to use Iran’s life table for calculating life insurance premiums, which was designed based on Iran's demographic information. B, and before that, the French life table was used for this purpose. In this article, using various variables, the impact of changing the life table from the France life table to the Iran life table on the current value of the future loss of the life insurance products portfolio is carried out, analyzed, and compared. In addition, the calculations will be calculated and analyzed both for insureds with standard health risk and for insureds who have substandard health status. According to the findings of the article, in general, the insurance company makes a profit from providing a portfolio of standard insurance policies and a loss from providing a portfolio of substandard insurance policies. If the insurance company uses the France life table, then it will have more profit for standard policies and less loss for substandard policies compared to the Iran life table. Extended Abstract Introduction Insurance companies use the sophisticated actuarial tools and data sources to accurately design and price life insurance products. One component of this complex process is the life table. The life tables are used to calculate the mortality probabilities needed in the calculation of life insurance contract premiums, the calculation of long-term reserves and obligations of insurance companies. Since these contracts are long-term in nature, the use of an appropriate life table that reflects the experience of mortality It is very important for the population to be insured. In this article, using the simulation of different variables, the impact of the change of the life table in 2021 from the France life table to the Iran life table is investigated on the present value of the future loss of the portfolio of whole life insurance products. Methods and Data In this study, the research method is quantitative and secondary data analysis. The native life table has been used since 2021 by the insurance industry supervisory body, Central Insurance of the Islamic Republic of Iran, to insurance companies. In addition, calculations for the France life table (TD8890), which was used by insurance companies before the issuance of the Iran table, were also performed and the results of both tables were compared. It should be noted that in this study, the 5-year survival rate of insured people with different cancers that werewas reported in the American Cancer Society (2023) based on the information of people who were diagnosed with cancer in the United States between 2012 and 2018 and in the article Nemati et al. (2022) was calculated and used based on the information of people who were diagnosed with cancer in Iran between 2014 and 2015. Findings Suppose the insured has combined skin cancer, which according to the American Cancer Society (2023), the 5-year relative survival rate is 93%. Considering that in Iran's life table, P₆₅ = 0.9040, the one-year mortality rate increases by this factor, which is represented by ρ_1, which and is obtained 0.70 by setting equals to 0.93 × 0.9040. Therefore, the coefficient β will be equal to β=0.70 + 1=1.70. In Table 1, the adjustment coefficient of the probability of death β for the insured with different cancers of the combined type has been calculated based on the report of the American Cancer Society (2023) and Nemati et al. (2022).
Table1- Calculation of the adjustment coefficient of mortality probabilities for the insured with different cancers in Iran and the United States .... It can be seen that the lower the survival rate, the higher the mortality probability adjustment coefficient. Table 2 shows the estimated mean present value of future losses for a portfolio of n whole life insurance policies, all with annual premiums, for both standard risk and substandard risk insureds. The research findings show that for the portfolio consisting of the insured with standard risk, the estimate of the mean present value of the future loss for both the life tables of Iran and France has obtained a negative value, which indicates the profit of the insurance company from the portfolio of insurance policies. In addition, the absolute value of the mean present value of the future loss estimated based on the France life table is higher than the Iran life table. In other words, using the France life table will bring more profit to the insurance company. Meanwhile, in the portfolio including insured persons with non-standard risk, the average present value of future loss for both life tables of Iran and France is a positive value, which shows that the insurance company has lost from this portfolio of insurance policies. In addition, the average present value of the future loss estimated based on France’s life table is lower than Iran’s life table.. In other words, the insurance company will have less loss if using the France life table.
Table 2- Estimation of the average present value of future loss for a portfolio consisting of n whole life insurance policies with annual premiums for standard and substandard risk. ... Conclusion and Discussion Estimation of the average present value of future losses of simulated whole life insurance policy portfolios was carried out for policyholders with standard and substandard health risks. The obtained results showed that, in general, the insurance company made a profit from offering a portfolio of standard insurance policies and a loss from offering a portfolio of substandard insurance policies. The company's current profit and loss from the sale of this number of insurance policies is are different for the Iran table and the France table. In other words, the profit of the insurance company from the sale of the portfolio with standard whole life insurance policies based on the life table is more than the Iran life table. Meanwhile, the loss of the insurance company from the sale of the portfolio of insured with substandard risk is lower for France’s life table than for Iran’s life table of. Considering the difference between the current profit and loss calculated by the Iran table and the France table, the necessity of using the native table prepared based on the demographic information of the country became more clearer.
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