اولویت بندی اثرات خشک سالی بر ابعاد اقتصادی و اجتماعی و زیست محیطی در نقاط شهری و روستایی (مطالعه ی موردی: استان یزد) (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
خشک سالی در کشور ما نو و ناشناخته نیست. خشک سالی اثرات مستقیم و غیرمستقیم در نواحی روستایی و شهری دارد؛ نه تنها روستاییان دچار مشکل می شوند، بلکه با مهاجرت به شهرها، بر مسائل اقتصادی-اجتماعی و زیست محیطی شهری تأثیر می گذارد. تأثیر خشک سالی بر مسائل اقتصادی-اجتماعی-زیست محیطی بر کسی پوشیده نیست، لذا اولویت بندی تأثیر خشک سالی بر این مسائل، اهمیت زیادی داشته و کمک بسیار زیادی در مدیریت این بحران خواهد کرد. این پژوهش، جهت اولویت بندی تأثیر خشک سالی بر این مسائل، به بررسی آن در استان یزد پرداخته است. طبق محاسبات، درصد تغییرات سطح زیر کشت در همه ی موارد بعد از وقوع خشک سالی کاهش یافته است. به دلیل خشک سالی و کاهش بارندگی، سطح زیر کشت دیم به شدت تحت تأثیر قرار گرفته است. همچنین مقدار بهره برداری از دام و تعداد دام بعد از وقوع خشک سالی به صورت محسوس کاهش داشته است؛ به گونه ای که در تعداد گوسفند و بره 16%، بز و بزغاله 29%، گاو و گوساله 19% کاهش مشاهده می شود. هزینه ی خالص در مناطق شهری جهت تهیه ی گوشت و میوه و سبزیجات قبل و بعد از وقوع خشک سالی رشد بسیار زیادی داشته است. پس از تحلیل داده ها جهت اعتبارسنجی پرسشنامه ای با حداقل150 نمونه، از خانوارهای شهری و روستایی منطقه تهیه گردید که پس از صحت سنجی، تأثیر خشک سالی بر ابعاد مختلف منطقه بر اساس آزمون فریدمن بررسی گردید و معیارهایی که بیش ترین و کم ترین تأثیرپذیری را در شاخص های اقتصادی، اجتماعی و زیست محیطی دارا بوده اند، تعیین گردید. درنهایت با توجه به آزمون فریدمن و تفاوت میانگین بین ابعاد گوناگون رتبه بندی صورت گرفت که بر اساس آن، شاخص اقتصادی با میانگین 2.75 رتبه ی اول؛ پس ازآن، شاخص اجتماعی و سپس زیست محیطی با میانگین 1.87 کم ترین پیامد ناشی از خشک سالی را داشته است.Prioritizing the Impacts of Drought on Economic, Social and Environmental Dimensions in Urban and Rural Areas (Case Study of Yazd Province)
Introduction
Iran is seriously suffering from economic and social drought. Theoretically, this problem can be resolved by rebalancing the supply and demand of water through the development of supplied water resources and implementing serious water demand reduction programs. However, the current structure of Iran's water governance system and the lack of a comprehensive understanding of the root causes of the problems erode at least some hope for lasting solutions to Iran's unprecedented water problems. Socio-economic droughts usually occur after a very long period of meteorological and hydrological droughts, causing famine, mortality, and widespread mass migration. This type of drought has many impacts on various economic aspects, and in particular specific types of economic products and commodities. The definition of socio-economic drought is a combination of the supply and demand of some economic commodities with meteorological, hydrological and agricultural components. The occurrence of this type of drought depends on the temporal and spatial processes of supply and demand for the definition of drought. The supply of many economic goods such as water, forage, cereals, fish and hydroelectric power depends on the climate. Due to the natural variability of the climate, water supply is sufficient in some years but in others it is not sufficient to meet human and environmental needs. Socioeconomic drought occurs when the demand for a particular economic commodity increases due to lower water supply than usual. The main purpose of water resources management and planning is to reduce the expected amount of failure of water supply systems or social-economic droughts. Socio-economic drought has various effects such as decreasing household income, reducing alternative sources of income, increasing hours and workloads, conflicting water use, food insecurity, food and malnutrition, reducing health and access to health services, reducing access to education. Brings unequal access to financial support services, increased rural migration, a sense of powerlessness, reduced quality of life, and reduced social cohesion. Therefore, in order to better manage and integrate this issue, economic, social and environmental issues must first be prioritized in terms of drought impact.
Materials and Methods
This study was carried out in Yazd province, located in the center of Iran between 0 ° C and 2 min to 2 ° C and 5 minutes North and latitude 4 ° and 5 minutes to 2 ° C and 5 minutes east of the meridian. The present study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in nature and method. The required information was gathered by documentary method and by reference to valid sources and questionnaire. In this study, the required data and data were collected and analyzed from the census system of the country. The following components are considered to analyze the economic, social and environmental dimensions. A questionnaire with at least 150 samples was analyzed for validation. The target population in this study was randomly selected rural and urban households. The reliability of the questionnaires was calculated based on Cronbach's alpha for different economic, social and environmental dimensions using SPSS software. According to Friedman test, SPSS software was used to prioritize different dimensions components.
Discussion and Results
According to the calculations, the percentage of changes in area under cultivation decreased in all cases after the drought. Due to drought and reduced rainfall, the area under dry farming has been severely affected. The number of livestock utilization and number of livestock decreased significantly after the drought, with a decrease of 16% in sheep and lamb, 29% in goats and goats, 19% in cows and calves. Net spending in urban areas for the preparation of meat and fruits and vegetables before and after the drought has grown tremendously. After analyzing data for validation of a questionnaire with at least 150 samples, urban and rural households of the region were prepared. In economic, social and environmental indicators were determined. Finally, according to Friedman test and mean difference between different dimensions of ratings, economic index with average 2.75 rank followed by social index and then environmental index with average 1.87 had the lowest effect of drought.
Conclusions (Times New Roman, 11 pt. Bold)
In general, tackling the drought in Yazd province requires fundamental measures. One of the main policy challenges in Yazd province is the presence of low and irregular rainfall. In this regard, the improvement of water consumption in the agricultural sector can be improved, the implementation of renovation and refurbishment projects in the field of agriculture and gardening, and the implementation of agricultural operations in the water and agricultural sector. Other policies that can be applied include radical counter-desertification, development of water reservoirs, application of appropriate water reserves, utilization of new technologies, and development of long-term investments commensurate with physical capacities. Area. One of the underlying strategies to tackle this phenomenon is to utilize public participation and raise public awareness of drought. In general, due to the extent of its crisis and population growth in the region and climatic conditions of the region, dealing with drought in Yazd province requires careful and long-term planning. One of the basic approaches can be to conduct research and studies on the prevention, control and confrontation of drought consequences in order to provide more favorable conditions for controlling and reducing economic, social and environmental damages.
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