شناسایی و اولویت بندی راهبردهای بازار انرژی در شرایط بحرانی (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
انرژی یکی از مؤثرترین مؤلفه های توسعه اقتصادی، سیاسی و اجتماعی هر کشوری است و علاوه بر نقش بسزایی که در تأمین منابع مالی و اقتصادی دارد در ثبات سیاسی کشورها هم اثرگذار است. از این رو تدوین راهبردهای بازار انرژی با درنظر گرفتن شرایط بحرانی از اهمیت ویژه ای برخوردار است. این پژوهش به دنبال شناسایی و اولویت بندی راهبردهای بازار انرژی در شرایط بحرانی است و مورد مطالعه، صادرات گاز ایران به کشور ترکیه است. در این راستا با استفاده از پرسشنامه محقق ساخته، نظر 9 خبره در حوزه انرژی جمع آوری شد. سپس با استفاده از ماتریس SWOT، عوامل داخلی و خارجی و نقاط قوت و ضعف مشخص شدند. همچنین با استفاده از روش بهترین- بدترین، شاخص های تأثیرگذار بر صادرات گاز ایران به ترکیه با در نظر گرفتن شرایط بحرانی، شناسایی و اولویت بندی شدند. 49 راهبرد استخراج شده بر اساس 10 شاخص با یکدیگر مقایسه و 29 راهبرد برای صادرات گاز ایران به کشور ترکیه معرفی شدند. نهایتاً با استفاده از شبکه های عصبی، راهبردها مجدداً رتبه بندی شدند. پنج راهبرد «سرمایه گذاری در حوزه انرژی و راهکارهای بهینه سازی مصرف آن از طریق بخش خصوصی و تشکیل اتاق های فکر» « تشکیل دفاتر منطقه ای و بین المللی جهت توسعه صادرات گاز، گسترش و تعاملات اقتصادی سیاسی با کشورهای همسایه به ویژه دارنده گاز در حوزه دریای خزر با مبنای توسعه و تعاملات انرژی با این کشورها»، «یکپارچه سازی زنجیره تأمین و برنامه ریزی در بخش استخراج تا صادرات گاز در مجموعه ای ذیل شرکت ملی گاز جهت چابک سازی در تصمیم گیری ها» و «افزایش ظرفیت تولید پالایشگاه های گاز کشور» و «جذب سرمایه گذاری برای توسعه میدان های نفت و گاز» به عنوان مهم ترین راهبردها انتخاب شدند. نتایج این پژوهش می تواند به عنوان نقشه راه برای تصمیم گیری در خصوص صادرات گاز در شرایط بحرانی مورد استفاده قرار بگیرد تا ضمن تثبیت جایگاه ایران در بازار انرژی، امکان ارتقاء آن را نیز فراهم سازد.Identification and prioritization of energy market strategies under critical conditions
Introduction: Energy is among the most influential components of the economic, social, and political development of every country and influences the political stability of countries alongside its significant role in supplying economic and financial resources. Compilation of energy market strategies considering critical conditions is thus of particular significance. Therefore, the present study seeks to identify, evaluate, and prioritize energy market strategies under critical conditions. The case study is gas exportation from Iran to Turkey.Methodology: This study used the SWOT matrix, best-worst method (BWM), and artificial neural networks (ANN) to determine and prioritize Iran’s energy market strategies during a crisis, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this way, first, the SWOT matrix was utilized, and strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats of the energy market were identified. Therefore, several strategies were proposed for the growth of the energy market. Next, influential attributes of Iran’s energy market were extracted and prioritized by receiving experts’ opinions and using BWM. After that, the score of each strategy regarding every attribute was determined by employing the opinions of experts in the energy sector. Finally, the selected strategies were reevaluated by applying ANN and prioritized again.Results and Discussion: 29 strategies with the highest scores were chosen as the most effective strategies for the energy market and prioritized based on ten selected attributes. Five strategies consist of “investment in the field of energy and finding strategies to optimize energy consumption through the private sector and formation of think tanks”, “establishment of regional and international offices to develop gas exportation, and enhance economic-political interaction with neighboring countries - especially those owning gas resources in the Caspian sea - with the aim of energy interaction improvement”, “integration of the supply chain and planning from gas extraction to gas exportation, to make decisions more agile”, and “increasing the country’s gas production capacity”, and “investment to develop oil and gas fields” were the selected strategies that can be used as a macro-level decision-making roadmap to improve Iran’s position in the energy market.Conclusion: Based on the results, attracting investors to increase refineries’ production capacity and establishing coordination between the Ministry of Petroleum and the Fuel Conservation Company to resolve gas imbalance issues should be considered. It is essential for the National Iranian Gas Company to achieve its independence. Furthermore, checking the influence of the National Oil Company in determining the amount of gas delivered to refineries by reconsidering the upstream regulation of the National Iranian Gas Company, such as the company’s constitution, is imperative. Note that the National Oil Company schedules and determines the amount of gas supplied for the refinery, affecting the macro strategy plans of the gas industry. Moreover, the prices of energy carriers should be appropriately set. This study’s findings indicate that strategies such as using the energy stock market, employing the private sector for domestic gas distribution, proper assessment of the domestic market needs, prediction, and feasibility study to substitute other products in times of crisis can be enhanced to execute an efficient system and policy. Participation in global markets necessitates penetrating international communities. Senior executives should focus on creating appeal for other countries by participating in energy commerce and utilizing active energy diplomacy. Other challenges facing the National Oil Company include a lack of cutting-edge technologies and the proper infrastructure for increasing production capacity. The issues such as the decrease in foreign investments, issues in acquiring facilities, issues in international banking, and sanctions should be considered in macro strategy plans. In addition, due to the barriers the National Oil Company faces regarding exports, it is crucial to make broad adjustments to increase stability, investments, and efficiency. Such adjustments could be stabilizing the country’s gas supply and increasing the reliability coefficient of the production capacity of refineries in times of energy crisis, granting exclusive privileges to the target countries to attract them to import gas from Iran, adjusting the domestic pricing system, diversification in the domestic energy portfolio, and diversifying the exported products and prevent from selling natural gas.The present study offers a basic model. Thus, future research would benefit from expanding this model and drafting executive rules and regulations. This study also recommends reviewing the energy market strategies every few years to keep up with changing circumstances, the market’s sensitivity to new customers, and political and international developments.
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