Hamadan Province

INTRODUCTION: Since Iran is located in the semi-arid belt, it has faced such issues as drought, dust crisis, and intensified migration. The assessment of the effects of climate change includes identifying some key aspects of uncertainties used to estimate its impacts, such as uncertainties in the context of Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs): in regional-scale climatology, in statistical or dynamic downscaling methods, and parametric and structural uncertainties in different models. One of the most important sources of uncertainty in climate change is the use of different AOGCMs that produce different outputs for climate variables. METHODS: In this study, to investigate the uncertainty of AOGCM models, the downscaled data of the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections dataset obtained from 21 AOGCMs with medium Representative Concentration Pathway4.5 scenario were downloaded from the NASA site for 81 cells in Hamadan Province, Iran. After the validation of the models, they were evaluated against the criteria of the coefficient of determination and model efficiency coefficient in comparison with the data of the Hamedan synoptic station in the statistical period of 1976-2005. To reduce the uncertainty of AOGCMs, the ensemble performance (EP) of models was used in Climate Data Operators software. FINDINGS: It was revealed that MRI-CGCM3, MPI-ESM-LR, BNU-ESM, ACCESS1-0, MIROC-ESM, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and MPI-ESM-MR models had better performance than similar models. It was also found that IPSL-CM5A-LR, CNRM-CM5, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, CESM1-BGC, and GFDL-ESM2M had the lowest correlation between observational and simulation data of mean monthly precipitation. CONCLUSION: According to the results, this method could provide a good estimate in the base period (1976-2005), compared to the data of the Hamedan synoptic station, and was more accurate compared to the single implementation method of each AOGCM model. The results of EP of models in the future period (2020-2049) showed that precipitation will not change considerably in the future and will increase by 0.23 mm. In addition, the average, maximum, and minimum annual temperatures will increase by 1.54°C, 1.7°C, and 1.40°C, respectively.

INTRODUCTION: After the approval of the country's crisis management law, the upstream documents related to this law, including the preparedness and response programs at the national and provincial levels, are among the tasks assigned to increase the efficiency of the crisis management processes. METHODS: This study presents a general framework for developing a provincial crisis response program. The proposed process has been used to develop the crisis response program of Hamadan province. In the phase of understanding the current situation, questionnaires and in-depth interviews were used to collect field data and determine the challenges presented to crisis management in Hamadan province. Moreover, a method for allocating the specialized functions of the response phase to the provincial organizations has been presented using the national crisis documents. FINDINGS: In general, the findings of this research can be assigned to three groups. The first group pertained to the project method, including the stages of understanding the current situation and developing the response program of the provinces. The second group of findings was the summary of the analysis of field data collected regarding the state of preparedness and response in Hamadan province. The third group encompassed determining and allocating specialized crisis response functions in Hamadan province. The functions of the provinces (n=32) and after their compliance with the national functions, the crisis management law, and the capabilities of the existing organization in the province, 56 specialized sub-functions were identified in the provinces, and the responsible, collaborating, and supporting institutions were determined. CONCLUSION: As evidenced by the obtained results, in the process of function allocation, some problems have been identified due to the shortage of information in the upstream documents, which are suggested to the crisis management organization for better planning.