tax gap

The Iranian economy in recent years is due to the development of economic sanctions, a sharp decline in the price of oil and the deficit resulting from revenue - dependent on oil revenues and the trend towards tax revenues. While comparing the volume of the Iranian economy with the amount of tax income indicates the existence of a relatively significant tax gap. The tax gap is the difference between the collected taxes and the tax required by the law. The purpose of this study is to answer the question whether corporate governance is effective and strong on the relation between tax gap and future earnings changes? The statistical population of the research in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) firms and statistical sample consists of 120 companies in the period of 2007-2017. In order to test the hypotheses, multivariate regression using mixed data - data approach has been used. The results indicate that there is a significant inverse relationship between the tax gap and future earnings changes. It can be argued that increasing the difference between earnings accounting earnings can be associated with decreasing interest in the next year and less stability. On the other hand, significant positive relation between corporate governance is efficient and strong with future earnings changes. because corporate governance will ultimately lead to more sustainable future gains due to the decline of discretionary accruals in discretionary accruals. It is also reinforced by the effect of the tax gap on future earnings changes in firms that have efficient corporate governance, and this effect is only seen for a year later. And is not effective for the second and third years.

The article presents the results of studies on the development of new statistical and econometric approaches to modeling budget policy. The obtained results are applied on the example of tax revenue modeling. Accounting for various factors, including through the use of mathematical methods, will allow you to plan reforms with a scientific position. In particular, this is especially true in connection with the introduction of multi-year budget planning. To identify the main threats to the tax base, the phenomenon of “tax passes” wasused, which is based on an assessment of the effectiveness of a tax credit. The main participants in the formation of the “gross gap” in the value added tax revenues in Ukraine are shown. A correlation and regression analysis of the natural logarithms of the gross domestic product and tax revenues is carried out. This allowed us to determine the elasticity of tax revenues and GDP in Ukraine. A change in GDP directly affects the amount of tax payments to the budget, and the rate of change of indicators is proportional and changes insignificantly. These results allow us to strategically model the reform of discretionary tax policy mechanisms based on a quantitative assessment of tax gaps and the elasticity of tax payments. The authors were able to substantiate some proposals for reforming the budget policy regarding tax revenues.