ارزیابی و مقایسه تطبیقی تاب آوری شهری مناطق 5 و 6 کلانشهر تبریز (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
شهرها به دلیل فشارهای فزآینده جمعیتی، تغییرات شدید کاربری اراضی و توسعه سریع شهرنشینی محل ظهور و بروز مخاطره های طبیعی و انسانی زیادی است؛ از این رو تاب آوری سکونتگاه های گوناگون شهری اهمیت فراوانی دارد که این اهمیت درباره کلانشهرها بسیار بیشتر است؛ از این رو در پژوهش حاضر میزان تاب آوری شهری، اولویت بندی شاخص های تاب آوری و مقایسه وضعیت تاب آوری دربین مناطق 5 و 6 کلانشهر تبریز بررسی شده است. پژوهش حاضر از نظر روش، توصیفی-تحلیلی است و ماهیت توسعه ای-کاربردی دارد. داده های لازم پژوهش با استفاده از مطالعات کتابخانه ای، بررسی میدانی و ابزار پرسشنامه گردآوری شده است. جامعه آماری پژوهش شامل شهروندان مناطق 5 و 6 کلانشهر تبریز است. حجم نمونه با استفاده از مدل معادلات ساختاری و روش نمایی گاما معادل 342 نفر برآورد شد. در این پژوهش تعداد 37 شاخص آشکار تاب آوری شهری در قالب 4 شاخص پنهان اجتماعی، اقتصادی، نهادی-مدیریتی و کالبدی-زیرساختی بررسی شد. در این پژوهش شاخص های مکنون با استفاده از آزمون رگرسیون چندگانه در نرم افزار SPSS و شاخص های آشکار براساس آزمون تحلیل عاملی تأییدی در نرم افزار LISREL و نیز براساس درجه اهمیت و تأثیرگذاری اولویت بندی و خلاصه سازی و درنهایت، برای تهیه نقشه شاخص های مؤثر از مدل منطق فازی در محیط GIS استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که در تاب آوری منطقه 5 کلانشهر تبریز شاخص پنهان اجتماعی با ضریب بتای 384/0 (83/33 درصد) در رتبه اول و بعد از آن هم شاخص های پنهان کالبدی-زیرساختی، اقتصادی و نهادی-مدیریتی به ترتیب با ضرایب بتای 305/0 (87/26 درصد)، 267/0 (52/23 درصد) و 179/0 (77/15 درصد) در رتبه های دوم، سوم و چهارم اهمیت قرار می گیرد. در منطقه 6 کلانشهر تبریز نیز شاخص پنهان کالبدی-زیرساختی با 528/0 (58/42 درصد) در رتبه اول و بعد از آن هم شاخص های پنهان نهادی-مدیریتی، اجتماعی و اقتصادی به ترتیب با ضرایب بتای 337/0 (18/27 درصد)، 265/0 (37/21 درصد) و 110/0 (87/8 درصد) در رتبه دوم، سوم و چهارم اهمیت قرار می گیرد. همچنین، نتایج نشان داد که بخش های شمال غربی و مرکزی منطقه 5 تبریز به لحاظ تاب آوری وضعیت بهتری داشته است؛ بنابراین در رتبه متوسط رو به بالا قرار می گیرد؛ ولی بخش های جنوبی منطقه 5 تبریز وضعیت بدی به لحاظ تاب آوری دارد. بخش های شمالی منطقه 6 تبریز نیز به لحاظ تاب آوری وضعیت بدی داشته است؛ بنابراین در رتبه متوسط رو به پایین قرار می گیرد؛ ولی بخش های جنوبی و مرکزی منطقه 6 وضعیت بهتری داشته است؛ بنابراین در رتبه متوسط رو به بالا قرار می گیرد.Comparative Analysis of Urban Resilience in Districts 5 and 6 of Tabriz Metropolitan Area
The increasing population pressure, drastic land use changes, and rapid urbanization have made cities susceptible to various natural and human-induced hazards. Therefore, enhancing the resilience of urban settlements is crucial, particularly in the context of megacities. This research investigated urban resilience levels, prioritized resilience indicators, and compared resilience status between Districts 5 and 6 of Tabriz Metropolitan Area. The study employed a descriptive-analytical method with a developmental-applicative focus. Data were collected through library research, field surveys, and questionnaires, targeting the residents of Districts 5 and 6. A sample size of 342 individuals was determined using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) and the gamma exponential method. In this study, 37 observed indicators of urban resilience were analyzed across 4 latent categories: social, economic, institutional-management, and physical-infrastructure. Latent indicators were prioritized based on their significance and impact through multiple regression analysis using SPSS software, while observed indicators were assessed via confirmatory factor analysis in LISREL software. A fuzzy logic model was employed within a GIS environment to map the effective indicators. Results revealed that the social latent index ranked highest in District 5 of Tabriz Metropolitan Area with a beta coefficient of 0.384 (33.83%) followed by the physical-infrastructural (0.305, 26.87%), economic (0.267, 23.52%), and institutional-management (0.179, 15.77%) indicators. In District 6, the physical-infrastructural latent index led with a beta coefficient of 0.528 (42.58%) followed by the institutional-managerial (0.337, 27.18%), social (0.265, 21.37%), and economic (0.110, 8.87%) indicators. Additionally, the findings indicated that the northwestern and central parts of District 5 exhibited better resilience, ranking in the upper-middle tier, while the southern areas showed poor resilience. Conversely, the northern parts of District 6 also displayed weak resilience, ranking in the lower average range, while the southern and central regions were categorized as upper average in terms of resilience. Keywords: Urban Resilience, Natural Hazards and Disasters, Districts 5 and 6 of Tabriz, Multiple Regression, Fuzzy Logic Model, Confirmatory Factor Analysis. Introduction As the population continues to grow, land use undergoes drastic changes and urbanization accelerates, while cities increasingly become hotspots for both natural and human hazards. Resilience of urban settlements is therefore crucial, particularly in the context of megacities. This research investigated urban resilience levels, prioritized resilience indicators, and compared the resilience status of Districts 5 and 6 within Tabriz Metropolitan Area. Materials & Methods This research employed a descriptive-analytical methodology and had a developmental-applicative focus. Data were collected through library studies, field surveys, and questionnaires. The statistical population comprised residents of Districts 5 and 6 of Tabriz Metropolitan Area. The sample size was determined to be 342 participants, using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) and the gamma exponential method. In this study, 37 observed indicators of urban resilience were analyzed and categorized into 4 latent indicators: social, economic, institutional-management, and physical-infrastructure. Prioritization of these latent indicators was conducted based on their relative importance and impact by utilizing multiple regression analysis in SPSS software. The observed indicators were assessed through confirmatory factor analysis using LISREL software. Additionally, to create a map of effective indicators, a fuzzy logic model was implemented within the GIS environment. Research Findings The results indicated that the social latent index with a beta coefficient of 0.384 (33.83%), ranked first in terms of resilience in the 5th District of Tabriz Metropolitan Area. It was followed by the physical-infrastructural, economic, and institutional-management latent indicators, which were ranked second, third, and fourth with the beta coefficients of 0.305 (26.87%), 0.267 (23.52%), and 0.179 (15.77%), respectively. In the 6th District of Tabriz Metropolitan Area, the physical-infrastructural latent index held the highest importance with a beta coefficient of 0.528 (42.58%). This was followed by the institutional-managerial, social, and economic latent indicators, which ranked second, third, and fourth in importance with the beta coefficients of 0.337 (27.18%), 0.265 (21.37%), and 0.110 (8.87%), respectively. Discussion of Results & Conclusion The findings indicated that the northwestern and central regions of the 5th District of Tabriz exhibited better resilience, ranking in the upper-middle tier. In contrast, the southern areas of this district demonstrated poor resilience. Similarly, the northern parts of the 6th District were characterized by low resilience, placing them in the lower average tier. However, the southern and central regions of the 6th District showed improved resilience, positioning them in the upper average tier.
تبلیغات
