بررسی شاخص های فقر و نابرابری در برنامه های توسعه اقتصادی ایران (بعد از انقلاب اسلامی) با تاکید بر رهیافت رشد موافق فقرا (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
یکی از اهداف آرمانی جمهوری اسلامی ایران، مقابله با فقر و نابرابری اقتصادی و اجتماعی در کشور می باشد. برای نیل بدین منظور، دولت ایران سیاست ها و برنامه ریزی هایی در قالب برنامه های توسعه اقتصادی اجتماعی به اجرا گذاشته است. ضرورت و ارزیابی میزان کامیابی دولت در برنامه های توسعه، هدف کار پژوهشی را توجیه می نماید. لذا، هدف پژوهش حاضر بررسی شاخص های فقر و نابرابری در برنامه های توسعه اقتصادی ایران با تاکید بر رهیافت رشد موافق فقرا می باشد. بر همین اساس، به منظور بررسی آثار رفاهی ناشی از تغییرات قیمت، ابتدا خط فقر و شاخص های فقر متناظر آن محاسبه می گردد. محاسبه خط فقر بر اساس روش های استانداردی که کم ترین میزان خطا با واقعیت را داشته باشند، از این منظر مهم می نماید. پس از محاسبه خط فقر و شاخص های متناظر آن در نقاط شهری و روستایی، با در نظر گرفتن مسیر رشد اقتصادی در طول برنامه اقتصادی، به بررسی رفاه ناشی از آن پرداخته خواهد شد. بر این اساس، مفهوم رشد موافق فقرا مورد آزمون قرار گرفت. نتایج مطالعه نشان داد که برنامه های توسعه اقتصادی، نتوانسته است شرایط را برای کاهش فقر فراهم آورد و فقر در نواحی شهری و روستایی و در بین زنان و مردان سرپرست خانوار افزایش یافته است.Studying Poverty and Inequality Indicators in Iran's Economic Development Programs (After the Islamic Revolution) with Emphasis on Pro-Poor Growth Approach
Therefore, the present study aims to examine the poverty and inequality indicators in Iran's economic development programs with an emphasis on the pro-poor growth approach. Accordingly,, the poverty line and its corresponding poverty indicators are first calculated. Calculating the poverty line based on standardized methods that have the least amount of error with reality is important from this perspective. After calculating the poverty line and its corresponding indicators in urban and rural areas, considering the path of economic growth during the economic program, the welfare resulting from it will be examined. Accordingly, the concept of pro-poor growth was tested. The results of the study showed that economic development programs have failed to create the conditions for poverty reduction, and poverty has increased in urban and rural areas and among female and male heads of households. The data used in this study includes information on the household budget of urban and rural families collected by the Statistical Center of Iran over the period 1993–2021 (1372–1400 in the Iranian calendar). The survey on household income and expenses during this period was conducted in two different formats based on two separate classifications of goods and services. Until 2004 (1383), data collection was conducted using the Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System. From 2004 onwards, household budget survey questionnaires were prepared and implemented based on the Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose (COICOP). To create a dataset with appropriate frequency for econometric estimations, household budget data collected under the earlier classification system (prior to 2004) needed to be adjusted and matched with the new classification system at the level of 12 commodity groups. This was done by mapping the codes of goods from the two classifications according to the corresponding table. Since a household is generally formed with at least two members, with minimal economies of scale realized at this size, a two-member household was considered the reference family for this study. The equivalence scale for households ranging from 1 to 13 members and beyond was calculated accordingly. The cost of the optimal food basket was calculated annually based on the prices of each year, separately for urban and rural households. For each year studied, and for both urban and rural households, the ratio of the actual gross expenses of the lowest-income 40% of two-member households to the food poverty line for two-member households was calculated. The inverse of this ratio was multiplied by the food poverty line for two-member households to derive the total poverty line for two-member households. Using equivalence scales, the poverty line for households of other sizes was also determined. During the Second Economic Development Plan (1995–1999 or 1374–1378 in the Iranian calendar), the urban poverty line increased from 160,000 rials in 1995 to 360,000 rials by the end of the plan, reflecting a growth rate of 124%. In rural areas, the growth rate during the First Economic Development Plan was slightly over double. The rural poverty line rose from 109,000 rials in 1995 to 220,000 rials.
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