تأثیر فرهنگ سازمانی بر ریسک سقوط قیمت سهام: رویکرد تجزیه وتحلیل متنی (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
در چارچوب نظریه نهادی، فرهنگ سازمانی به عنوان یکی از عوامل تأثیرگذار بر رفتار سازمانی شناخته می شود که می تواند ریسک سقوط قیمت سهام را تحت تأثیر قرار دهد. بررسی تأثیر فرهنگ سازمانی بر ریسک سقوط قیمت سهام هدف اصلی این پژوهش است. داده های مالی 124 شرکت فعال در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران طی یک بازه زمانی 10ساله از سال 1391 تا 1400 جمع آوری و برای آزمون فرضیه از روش رگرسیون خطی چندمتغیره و الگوی داده های ترکیبی استفاده شده است. فرهنگ سازمانی از طریق ربع های چهارگانه (کنترل محور، خلاقیت محور، همکاری محور و رقابتی محور) با استفاده از رویکرد تجزیه وتحلیل متنی و مجموعه نرم افزار هایAdobe Acrobat ، Microsoft Edge و Ocr (تحت زبان برنامه نویسی پایتون) مورد سنجش قرار گرفت. مطابق فرضیه ها، یافته ها نشان داد فرهنگ سازمانی در قالب ربع های کنترل محور، خلاقیت محور، همکاری محور و رقابتی محور، ریسک سقوط قیمت سهام را تحت تأثیر قرار نمی دهد، اما در در سطح اطمینان 90 درصد، فرهنگ سازمانی همکاری محور و خلاقیت محور ریسک سقوط قیمت سهام را به طور مثبت تحت تأثیر قرار می دهند. برخلاف دیدگاه نظریه نهادی، نتایج نشان داد در محیط اقتصادی ایران، فرهنگ سازمانی نمی تواند بر رفتار مدیران فرصت طلب شرکت ها اثرگذار باشد تا در انباشت یا افشای اخبار بد توسط آنها تغییری صورت بگیرد. اندازه گیری فرهنگ سازمانی تحت رویکرد تجزیه وتحلیل متنی در قالب چهار ربع فرهنگی و بررسی تأثیر آن بر ریسک سقوط قیمت سهام به درکی بهتر از رابطه بین فرهنگ سازمانی و ریسک سقوط قیمت سهام کمک می کند.Organizational Culture and Stock Price Crash Risk
In the institutional theory framework, organizational culture is recognized as a significant factor influencing organizational behavior, which can affect the stock price crash risk. The primary objective of this research is to examine the impact of organizational culture on the stock price crash risk. Data from 124 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange over ten years from 2012 to 2021 were selected, and the hypotheses were tested using multiple linear regression and panel data models. Organizational culture was assessed through four quadrants (control-oriented, Creation-oriented, collaboration-oriented, and competition-oriented) utilizing a text analysis approach and software tools including Adobe Acrobat, Microsoft Edge, and OCR (using Python programming language). According to the hypotheses, the findings indicated that organizational culture, as represented by the control-oriented, creativity-oriented, collaboration-oriented, and competition-oriented quadrants, does not influence the stock price crash risk. However, at a 90% confidence level, collaboration-oriented and creativity-oriented cultures positively affect the stock price crash risk. Contrary to the institutional theory perspective, the results revealed that in the economic environment of Iran, organizational culture does not significantly influence the opportunistic behavior of company managers, preventing any changes in the accumulation or disclosure of bad news by them. Measuring organizational culture through a text analysis approach in the framework of the four cultural quadrants and examining its impact on the stock price crash risk contributes to a better understanding of the relationship between organizational culture and stock price crash risk.
Introduction
Stock price crash risk refers to the probability of a severe and unexpected decrease in stock value, which leads to a reduction in shareholder wealth. A group of researchers suggests that some managers engage in behaviors such as withholding bad news related to the company due to motives like wealth preservation, bonus contracts, tax evasion, job security, and ultimately maximizing their benefits. In other words, managers tend to strategically withhold negative news about the organization and loss-making projects during such times. This can lead to the accumulation of bad news regarding the fundamental status and performance of the organization. In these circumstances, the delay in releasing bad news results in excessive optimism among investors regarding the company's future growth. On the other hand, there is always a certain threshold for the accumulation of negative news; when the accumulated news reaches this level, it suddenly floods the market, prompting a revision of investors' previous beliefs and ultimately resulting in a significant drop in the company's stock price in the capital market.
According to institutional theory, environmental factors such as political, social, and cultural pressures influence organizational behavior. This theory describes the social interactions within organizations and demonstrates how these pressures become institutionalized and manifest as accepted rules and common behaviors. Within the framework of institutional theory, the present research aims to examine the impact of organizational culture as an environmental characteristic on the stock price crash risk in the Iranian economic environment. Understanding and awareness of the factors influencing stock price crash risk are essential for investor decision-making and risk management. There are three main reasons for understanding the determinants of stock price crash risk. First, the crash risk cannot be eliminated through portfolio strategies; second, high stock price crash risk leads to undesirable consequences, such as high audit costs for clients and a slow adjustment of leverage; third, significant stock price crash risk negatively impacts investor wealth and the stability of the financial market. Most studies concerning the factors influencing stock price crash risk into two categories. The first category examines the positive factors affecting the risk of stock price decline, while the second category focuses on the negative factors influencing this risk. Furthermore, a growing body of literature has explored the determinants of stock price crash risk from the perspective of social norms, such as national culture.
Accordingly, the main question that arises is: What impact does organizational culture have on the stock price crash risk? To answer this primary research question, the four quadrants of organizational culture—control-oriented, competition-oriented, collaboration-oriented, and Creation-oriented quadrants—are introduced within the framework of competitive values proposed by Quinn and Rohrbaugh (1981). This is assessed using a text analysis approach, following Behndari et al. (2022), to obtain the average cumulative scores for each cultural quadrant (both overall and by industry). Subsequently, the stock price crash risk is calculated following Andreu et al. (2021) using two metrics: the negative skewness of stock returns and low upward volatility. Finally, the relationship between the cultural quadrants and the stock price crash risk is tested through regression models.
Methods & Material
This research is classified as empirical research and falls under applied research in terms of purpose. The study is descriptive-correlational and retrospective, as it uses historical data to test the hypotheses. For this research, financial data from companies were collected and analyzed using panel data analysis and multivariate regression methods. The tests include descriptive statistics of the variables, and to determine the degree of relationship between the research variables, multivariate regression coefficients were employed. The sample consists of 104 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange during the period from 2012 to 2021, selected based on specific screening criteria, which are as follows: a) the fiscal year of the selected companies must end in March of each year; b) they should not have trading pauses exceeding three months; c) the companies' information must be available for the specified year; d) there should be no changes in the fiscal year during the research period; e) they must be manufacturing companies; f) they should not have accumulated losses during the research period; and g) their industries must consist of at least four companies.
Findings
The first to fourth hypotheses of the research claim that organizational culture (control-oriented, competition-oriented, creativity-oriented, and collaboration-oriented) influences the risk of stock price decline within the framework of institutional theory. The results of the hypothesis tests using the first measure of stock price crash risk indicated that in all four quadrants of organizational culture, the significance level of the independent variable is greater than 5 percent when using the negative skewness of stock returns (stock price crash risk). Therefore, there is no significant relationship between organizational culture and the stock price crash risk at the 95 percent level. In other words, none of the quadrants of organizational culture affect the stock price crash risk based on this measure. Consequently, all research hypotheses are rejected using the first measure of stock price crash risk. However, at a 90 percent confidence level, collaboration-oriented and creativity-oriented cultures positively influence the stock price crash risk.
The results of the hypothesis tests using the second measure of stock price crash risk (low upward volatility) indicated that in all four quadrants of organizational culture, the significance level of the independent variable is greater than 5 percent when using the second risk measure. Thus, there is no significant relationship between organizational culture and the stock price crash risk at the 95 percent level. This means that none of the quadrants of organizational culture affect the stock price crash risk based on this measure. Therefore, all research hypotheses are rejected using the second measure of stock price crash risk.
Conclusion & Results
Considering that the hypotheses were logically sound from a theoretical perspective but did not establish an empirical connection, several points can be made: 1) The existence of various industries can be considered a reason for rejecting the research hypotheses. Since organizational culture can differ significantly from one industry to another, if the hypothesis testing had been conducted by industry, the hypotheses might have been confirmed. 2) Additionally, given that the economic environment in Iran has been in a particular state in recent years due to external conditions, including international sanctions, and that organizational culture is influenced by political and economic conditions, the environmental conditions of Iran's economy can also be a reason for rejecting the research hypotheses. The findings of this research are consistent with the results of studies by Kordestani and Khatami (2016), Moradi and Karami (2019), and Mousavi et al. (2016).
This study examined one of the factors influencing the stock price crash risk., namely organizational culture, within the framework of four cultural quadrants. It is suggested that future research should investigate the impact of the country's political and economic conditions on the relationship between organizational culture and the risk of stock price decline. For example, it could be proposed that the research hypotheses be examined and tested before and after the imposition of international sanctions on the country's economy. Furthermore, to enhance the understanding of the impact of organizational culture on the risk of stock price crash risk, future studies should conduct a detailed analysis across different industries to identify the potential effects of organizational culture in each sector. Additionally, conducting similar studies in other countries and comparing the results with those from Iran could contribute to a better understanding of this subject and the relevant literature.
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