تأثیر تحریم های اقتصادی و بلایای طبیعی بر درآمد سرانه ایران (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
رشد و توسعه اقتصادی به عنوان هدف اصلی هر کشور، نقش بسیار مهمی در بهبود شرایط زندگی جوامع و توسعه پایدار دارد. ازاین رو تلاش برای تحقق این هدف و در نتیجه افزایش درآمد سرانه می تواند بهبود شرایط اقتصادی و اجتماعی مردم کشور را تضمین کند. بااین حال، بحران های طبیعی و سیاسی می توانند موانع مهمی برای رسیدن به این اهداف باشند؛ لذا وقوع بلایای طبیعی و اعمال تحریم های اقتصادی ممکن است اثرات ویرانگری بر روی رشد و توسعه اقتصادی داشته باشند و کاهش درآمد سرانه را منجر شوند؛ بنابراین این مطالعه با هدف بررسی اثر تحریم های اقتصادی و بلایای طبیعی بر درآمد سرانه غیرنفتی در ایران طی دوره زمانی (2022-1980) با استفاده از رویکرد هم انباشتگی حداقل مربعات معمولی پویا انجام شده است. نتایج این مطالعه نشان می دهد که در بلندمدت، افزایش بلایای طبیعی و تحریم های اقتصادی باعث کاهش درآمد سرانه در ایران شده است. همچنین نوآوری زیست محیطی و متغیر تعامل نوآوری و بلایای طبیعی اثر مثبت بر درآمد سرانه دارند. سایر نتایج نیز نشان داد که عواملی مانند نیروی کار، سرمایه فیزیکی و آزادسازی تجاری باعث بهبود درآمد سرانه در کشور شده اند. با توجه به نتایج به دست آمده، توصیه می شود که برنامه ها و سیاست های مناسب برای مقابله با تحریم ها و بلایای طبیعی، ترویج نوآوری های زیست محیطی، تقویت تشکیل سرمایه ثابت و نیروی کار در ایران اجرا شود تا بهبود و افزایش درآمد سرانه کشور تضمین شود.The Effect of Economic Sanctions and Natural Disasters on Iran’s Per Capita Income
Economic growth and development, as the primary goals of any country, play a crucial role in improving living standards and promoting sustainable development. Efforts to achieve these goals, and consequently increase per capita income, can ensure the enhancement of economic and social well-being of a nation. However, natural and political crises can pose significant obstacles to achieving such objectives. Natural disasters and economic sanctions, in particular, can have devastating effects on economic growth and development, leading to a decline in per capita income. Using the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares, the present study aimed to examine the effect of economic sanctions and natural disasters on non-oil per capita income in Iran from 1980 to 2022. The findings showed that, in the long-term, increases in natural disasters and economic sanctions had contributed to a decline in per capita income in Iran. Additionally, environmental innovation and the interaction between innovation and natural disasters positively influenced per capita income. The results also indicated that factors such as the labor force, physical capital, and trade openness had contributed to improvements in per capita income. In light of the findings, it is recommended that Iran implement effective plans and policies to mitigate the effects of sanctions and natural disasters, promote environmental innovations, and strengthen the development of fixed capital and the labor force, aimed at ensuring the continued growth of per capita income. Introduction In recent years, Iran has become a prominent case study and focal point in discussions about sanctions within global research and academic circles. This attention stems from Iran’s status as a target of both multilateral and unilateral sanctions campaigns, which have had adverse effects on its economy. The sanctions have led to currency devaluation; severe budgetary, commercial, and financial deficits; reduced foreign investment, skyrocketing inflation, and rising poverty rates. Natural disasters, meanwhile, are large-scale catastrophic events that intermittently strike, causing extensive human and infrastructural damage that impacts societies and economies alike. Natural disasters inflict significant damage on infrastructure, property, and industries, leading to reduced production, business disruptions, damage to manufacturing facilities, and interruptions in transportation systems. Due to their unpredictability, natural disasters have a substantial impact on the economy. The current study aimed to explore whether natural and political disasters pose genuine obstacles to economic growth and development in Iran. The primary research question is: What are the effects of economic sanctions, natural disasters, and environmental innovation on per capita income in Iran’s economy? Materials and Methods To meet the objectives, the study used an experimental model as defined in logarithmic form based on Equations (1) and (2) below. (1) (2) Per capita income (Y) was considered as the dependent variable, while the independent variables included economic sanctions (ES), natural disasters (ND), environmental innovation (EI), physical capital (K), labor force (L), trade openness (TO), and an interaction variable (ND×EI). In line with the research objectives, time series data spanning from 1980 to 2022 were utilized. The research model was analyzed using the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) estimator in EViews software. Results and Discussion To analyze the results, a unit root test was first conducted to evaluate the reliability of the data. The results showed that the variables of trade openness (TO) and economic sanctions (ES) were at a stationary level, while the variables of per capita income (Y), physical capital (K), labor force (L), environmental innovation (EI), and natural disasters (ND) could be stationary with one time difference. Next, the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) was used to determine the optimal lag length. The presence of long-term relationships among the variables was then tested using the Augmented Engle-Granger cointegration test and the Cointegrating Regression Durbin-Watson (CRDW) test, both of which indicated at least one long-term relationship among the variables. The DOLS method was then employed to estimate the research model (see Table 1). The findings revealed that economic sanctions (ES) had a significant and negative effect on per capita income (Y) in Iran’s economy. Specifically, a one percent increase in ES in Models 1 and 2 reduces non-oil per capita income by 0.108% and 0.063%, respectively. Additionally, the frequency of severe natural disasters (ND) had a significantly negative correlation with non-oil per capita income. A one percent increase in ND results in a reduction of 0.161% and 0.158% in non-oil per capita income. Conversely, environmental innovation (EI) had a significantly positive effect on per capita income, with a one percent increase in EI leading to a 0.032% rise in non-oil per capita income. The interaction variable (ND×EI) was also positive and significant, where a one percent increase in this variable results in a 0.025% increase in non-oil per capita income (Y). Furthermore, physical capital (K) had a significantly positive effect on non-oil per capita income. In this case, a one percent increase in K is associated with an increase in Y by 0.185% and 0.25% in Models 1 and 2, respectively. Labor force (L) also had a positive and significant effect on non-oil per capita income, with a one percent increase in L leading to an increase in Y by 0.611% and 0.518% in Models 1 and 2, respectively. Finally, trade openness (TO) had a positive effect on per capita income, as a one percent increase in TO results in a rise of 0.253% and 0.208% in non-oil per capita income. Table 1. Estimation Results of Research Models Variables Model 1 Model 2 Coefficients t statistic Coefficients t statistic K 0.185 2.483** 0.250 5.140*** L 0.611 3.887*** 0.518 2.257*** TO 0.253 4.462*** 0.208 5.516*** ES -0.108 -2.119** -0.063 -1.883* ND -0.161 -4.946*** -0.158 -8.704*** EI 0.032 2.359** - - ND×EI - - 0.025 4.745*** C 3.533 2.028* 4.296 3.994*** Note: ***, ** and * represent significance levels of 1%, 5% and 10%, respectively. Source: Research results Conclusion The research findings suggested that repeated political and natural disasters could drive a country and its economy into a period of stagnation. On the one hand, these events lead to the destruction of physical, human, and natural resources. On the other hand, they disrupt trade processes, halting the transfer of technology through imports and impeding the modernization of domestic industries. As a result, both outcomes contribute to a decline in per capita income. Moreover, the study showed that adopting environmental innovations could not only increase per capita income but also positively influence the relationship between natural disasters and per capita production, thus helping to mitigate the impact of such disasters. Therefore, investing in research, development, and innovation will strengthen the country’s ability to cope with and adapt to such challenges, while reducing risk levels. In conclusion, this study demonstrated that the political and natural disasters observed during the analyzed period hah negatively impacted the country’s economic growth and development, leading to a decrease in Iran’s per capita income.
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