فراوانی منابع طبیعی و رابطه توسعه مالی و رشد اقتصادی: نقش سرمایه گذاری (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
کشور ایران علیرغم توسعه نسبی مؤسسات و نهادهای مالی و همچنین فراوانی منابع طبیعی(درآمد حاصل از فروش نفت)، هنوز نتوانسته است نرخ رشد اقتصادی بالا و پایداری را تجربه کند و حتی با نرخ رشد منفی در سال های اخیر نیز رو به رو بوده است. لذا واکاوی عوامل تأثیرگذار بر این رابطه حائز اهمیت است. به همین منظور در این تحقیق به بررسی نقش و اهمیت فراوانی منابع طبیعی(درآمدهای نفتی) بر رابطه بین توسعه مالی و رشد اقتصادی از کانال سرمایه گذاری با استفاده از آزمون کرانه ای خودرگرسیون با وقفه های گسترده طی دوره زمانی 1359 تا 1399 پرداخته شده است. بر اساس نتایج تحقیق، توسعه مالی تأثیر مثبت و معنادار بر سرمایه گذاری طی دوره مورد بررسی داشته است در حالی که فراوانی منابع نفتی باعث تضعیف این رابطه طی دوره مورد بررسی شده است و می تواند حاکی از تأثیر غیرمستقیم فراوانی منابع نفتی بر رابطه بین توسعه مالی و رشد اقتصادی از کانال سرمایه گذاری در ایران باشد. متغیر تعاملی(حاصلضرب) توسعه مالی و فراوانی منابع نفتی نیز تأثیر منفی و معنادار بر سرمایه گذاری طی دوره مورد بررسی داشته که حاکی از عدم توانایی سیستم مالی در تخصیص مناسب و کارای منابع به سمت سرمایه گذاری های مولد می باشد. با توجه به این نتیجه می توان گفت وجود فراوانی منابع نفتی، کارکرد بخش مالی در اقتصاد ایران را تحت تأثیر قرار داده است و با ناکارآمد کردن این بخش، تأثیر منفی بر سرمایه گذاری داشته و در نتیجه موجب تضعیف رابطه رشد اقتصادی و توسعه مالی گردیده است.Plenty of Natural Resources and the Financial Development and Economic Growth Nexus: Role of Investment
Despite relative development in financial institutions, and the abundance of financial resources (income from oil sales), Iran has still struggled to experience high and sustainable economic growth rates, even experiencing negative growth rates in recent years. Therefore, investigating the influential factors in the relationship between financial development and economic growth is crucial. Accordingly, this study examines the role and significance of oil resources (oil course) on the relationship between financial development and economic growth through investment channels using the ARDL bounding test during the period from 1980 to 2020. The findings indicate that while financial development positively and significantly impacts investment, the oil curse weakens this relationship, suggesting an indirect negative impact of the oil curse on the financial development-economic growth nexus via investment channels in Iran. The interactive variable of financial development and the oil curse also had a negative and significant impact on investment during the examined period, indicating the financial system's inability to allocate resources effectively towards productive investments. Based on these results, it can be stated that the oil curse has affected the functioning of the financial sector in the Iranian economy and, by making this sector inefficient, has had a negative impact on investment, thus weakening the relationship between economic growth and financial development.
Introduction
Natural resources are considered one of the most important national wealth assets globally. Initially, it may be presumed that abundant revenues from natural resources can generate wealth for a country, leading to economic progress and poverty reduction, thus serving as a significant factor in accelerating investment and subsequent economic growth. However, empirical observations in some cases contradict this claim (Sachs and Warner, 2001; Saleh et al., 2020). The detrimental effect of governments' dependence on natural resource revenues has long been of interest to economists and policymakers. Experience shows that natural wealth alone is neither a necessary nor a sufficient factor for economic prosperity and advancement, as evidenced by affluent countries such as Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, and Switzerland, which have not derived their national wealth from natural resources (Abeysinghe, 2001). Studies indicate that the common denominator among all countries that have benefited greatly from natural resources is the presence of a well-functioning and institutionalized financial system, which channels revenues from natural resources towards productive and infrastructural investments, thereby promoting production growth.
Revenues derived from natural resources, given the development of institutions and financial institutions, and overall financial system development, are effectively allocated to productive economic investments. With increased investment in infrastructure, it strengthens the relationship between financial development and economic growth. On the other hand, abundant revenues from natural resources, if not optimally allocated, can weaken the relationship between financial development and economic growth (Nili & Rastad, 2007). Despite possessing abundant income from natural resources, Iran experienced unstable economic growth over the past three decades. Considering that most studies conducted in Iran have acknowledged the positive relationship between financial development and economic growth, awareness of the profound effects of natural resources on the relationship between financial development and economic growth appears essential for adopting appropriate policies. Therefore, this study endeavors to investigate and analyze the impact of natural resources on the relationship between economic growth and financial development through investment channels. Top of Form
Methods and Material
Considering previous studies such as Sachs and Warner (1999), Harchaoui et al. (2005), Nili and Rastad (2007), and Badiab et al. (2016), along with the theoretical foundations of the research, the model under investigation in this study is based on the neoclassical growth framework. The research modeling will be conducted in several stages using various equations to achieve the main research objective. Initially, the direct impact of oil dependency (resource curse) on economic growth will be examined. Subsequently, in order to investigate the role of investment in the relationship between financial development and economic growth in Iran, the role of investment will be explored, taking into account the influence of oil dependency (resource curse) on this relationship. The degree of indirect influence of oil dependency (resource curse) on the relationship between financial development and economic growth will be determined through the investment channel.
To analyze the empirical long-run and short-run relationship between the model variables during the period from 1980 to 2020 in this study, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method, introduced by Pesaran et al. (2001), will be utilized.
Results and Discussion
The results obtained from the research indicate that financial development has had a positive impact on economic growth during the examined period, but it is not statistically significant. However, the impact of natural resource abundance and per capita capital on economic growth during the examined period is positive and significant. The estimation of influential factors on investment reveals a positive and significant effect of financial development on investment during the examined period. Furthermore, the coefficient of the interactive variable between financial development and the resource curse suggests that the resource curse weakens the negative relationship between financial development and investment in Iran. This indicates the indirect impact of the resource curse on the relationship between financial development and economic growth through investment in Iran. The interactive variable of financial development and the resource curse also has a negative and significant impact on investment, suggesting that an increase in financial development in the long run leads to a reduction in the positive impact of natural resource abundance on investment in Iran.
Conclusion
Based on the results, it can be said that the financial and banking system in Iran has not been able to channel oil revenues towards productive activities effectively, and resource allocation has not been adequately addressed. The presence of the resource curse has indirectly affected the financial sector, resulting in negative impacts on investment and consequently on the relationship between economic growth and financial development. Additionally, natural resource abundance alone has a positive and significant impact on investment. With increasing oil revenues, government infrastructure expenditures and loans to the private sector also increase, leading to increased investment. Based on the results obtained, signs of the resource curse in the Iranian economy are observable indirectly, and the resource curse has weakened the relationship between financial development and economic growth.
Policy recommendations include focusing on developing the financial system and enhancing the efficiency of the banking sector to better direct financial resources towards productive investments. Additionally, diversifying the economy and developing various sectors, such as industry, services, and agriculture, are crucial to mitigating the risks associated with the resource curse.This can be achieved by increasing the efficiency of financial institutions through enhancing education and efficient resource management.
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