عوامل مؤثر بر آسیب پذیری معیشتی کشاورزان در مناطق روستایی جنوب دریاچه بختگان (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
تغییرات آب و هوایی اثرات قابل توجهی بر منابع آبی در مناطق خشک و نیمه خشک داشته است و می تواند بر آسیب پذیری کشاورزان و رفاه خانوارهای روستایی نیز مؤثر باشد. لذا در پژوهش حاضر، عوامل تعیین کننده میزان آسیب پذیری خانوارهای کشاورز در مناطق روستایی جنوب دریاچه بختگان واقع در استان فارس با تأکید بر تغییر اقلیم مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. همچنین آسیب پذیری خانوارهای کشاورز منطقه مورد مطالعه با استفاده از شاخص آسیب پذیری معیشتی (LVI) مورد سنجش قرار گرفت و از مدل رگرسیون بتا جهت ارزیابی عوامل مؤثر بر سطوح آسیب پذیری استفاده شد. حجم نمونه بر اساس فرمول کوکران 350 خانوار روستایی تعیین شد. داده ها و اطلاعات مورد نیاز از طریق تکمیل پرسش نامه و مصاحبه حضوری در سال ۱۴۰۱ جمع آوری شد. نتایج مدل رگرسیون بتا نشان داد که سن سرپرست خانوار، بعد خانوار، سطح تحصیلات سرپرست خانوار، دسترسی به اطلاعات هواشناسی، عضویت در تعاونی ها، درآمد خارج از مزرعه و همچنین دریافت وام بانکی تأثیر معنی داری بر آسیب پذیری خانوارهای روستایی منطقه مورد مطالعه دارد. بر اساس نتایج به دست آمده، توصیه می شود سیاست توسعه روستایی بر روی نکات کلیدی که تاب آوری و ظرفیت سازگاری خانوار کشاورز را ارتقا می دهد از جمله آموزش، درآمدزایی، دسترسی به اطلاعات هواشناسی و عضویت در تعاونی ها هدف گذاری شود.Factors affecting livelihood Vulnerability of Farmers in Rural Areas of Southern Bakhtegan Lake
Introduction
Predictions indicated that the quality of household’s life, especially rural households is decreasing according to the change in social factors, lifestyle, political tensions, and population growth. Climate change and drought have aggravated the problem of undernourishment. Considering that the agricultural sector is the most important source of livelihood and food supply for households living in rural areas, the effects of drought on rural household’s income and production are significant. Also, severe drought and water shortages caused by drought, reduced the productivity of agricultural production. Hence, in the present study, the vulnerability of the agricultural households as well as the village of the studied region has been measured using the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI). Also, the impact of various social and economic factors on the vulnerability of households was investigated using the Beta regression model.
Materials and Methods
The LVI was designed to evaluate households’ vulnerability to climatic fluctuation. The LVI method includes various factors that represent the level of exposure of farming households to climate variability, because it provides a framework for analyzing both the key components that make up livelihoods and the contextual factors that influence them. According to the concept of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a balance-weighted technique was used to estimate the vulnerability of farming households to changing climate by computing the LVI. A balance weighted average is the average of a data set with different associated values or weights. In addition, LVI in this study was calculated based on seven key components and 17 sub-components. Also, the value of the calculated LVI was classified into five groups: not vulnerable (0.0 to 0.30), slightly vulnerable (0.31 to 0.46), moderately vulnerable (0.47 to 0.51), highly vulnerable (0.52 to 0.60), and extremely vulnerable (0.61 to 1.0). Based on the Kochran formula, a sample of 350 farmers was determined, and required data and information were collected through questionnaires and face-to-face interviews in 2022. The LVI is a function of the demographic, social, physical, and policy environment. Therefore, the determinants of LVI were investigated, with an emphasis on climate change using the Beta regression model.
Results and Discussion
Results of LVI showed that 43% of the sampled households in the study area were slightly vulnerable to climate fluctuation. On the other hand, only 6.8% of farming households in southern Bakhtegan Lake were not vulnerable. Also, 22.8% and 23.42% of sampled farming households were moderately and highly vulnerable, respectively. In general, more than 3.4% of sampled households were extremely vulnerable. The results of the Beta regression model showed that the age of the household head, family size, education level of the household head, access to climate information, membership in the cooperatives, off-farm income, and also receiving a bank loan have a significant effect on the vulnerability of rural households.
Conclusions
In the present study, the LVI was used to evaluate households’ vulnerability to climatic fluctuation, based on the IPCC’s concept of vulnerability. Based on the value of calculated LVI, the sampled farming households’ vulnerability is classified into five groups containing not vulnerable, slightly vulnerable, moderately vulnerable, highly vulnerable, and extremely vulnerable. Also, an econometric estimation procedure that involves the use of Beta regression model was employed to identify the factors affecting the LVI. The result shows that 50% of the sample households were slightly vulnerable or not vulnerable. The LVI showed that the vulnerability of farming households in southern Bakhtegan Lake to climatic fluctuation ranges from extremely vulnerable (3.4%) to highly vulnerable (22.8%) and moderately vulnerable (23.42%) levels. According to the positive effect of age on LVI, the government can consider households with a younger head of the household as the target group. Also, it is suggested to provide information about the occurrence of climatic phenomena through virtual channels and other information sources. Considering the impact of LVI from off-farm income, it is suggested that households engage in off-farm activities.
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