ظرفیت های ژئوپلیتیکی و ژئواکونومیکی جاده ابریشم برای افزایش قدرت ملی ایران (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
ایران به واسطه موقعیت گذرگاهی اش در مرکزیت مناطق متداخلی قرار دارد، ایران در مرکز تلاقی محور های تولید و مصرف انرژی جهان قرار دارد؛ در محور عمودی شمالی - جنوبی در مرکز دو منبع انرژی خلیج فارس و آسیای میانه و قفقاز قرار دارد و در محور شرقی - غربی نیز در مرکز دو منطقه مصرف کننده انرژی شرق آسیا و اروپا قرار دارد و این یعنی ایران موقعیت توزیع کنندگی ممتازی دارد. هشت مسیر ترانزیتی عمده در منطقه پیرامونی ایران قرار دارد که البته درجه اهمیت و میزان پیشرفت متفاوتی با یکدیگر دارند. برخورداری و استفاده از موقعیت ژئواکونومیک عامل مهمی در افزایش قدرت ملی کشورها است. ایران نیز از نظر موقعیت ژئواکونومیک در وضعیت مطلوبی قرارداد ولی علیرغم برخورداری از مولفه های ژئواکونومیک از جمله در حوزه موقعیت گذرگاهی، در استفاده از این پتانسیل مطلوب عایدی چندانی کسب نکرده است. هدف این پژوهش بررسی ظرفیت های ژئوپلیتیکی و ژئواکونومیکی جاده ابریشم برای افزایش قدرت ملی ایران است. روش این پژوهش توصیفی- پیمایشی است. نتایج پژوهش نیز استفاده از نرم افزار spss مورد تحلیل و ارزیابی قرارگرفته اند. نتایج پژوهش نشان می دهد که فعال نمودن ظرفیت های جاده ابریشم در افزایش قدرت ژئواکونومیک و نیز تأمین امنیت ملی کشور نقش زیادی دارد. همچنین باعث رشد اشتغال و درامد ملی می شود که خود عاملی توسعه و پیشرفت اقتصادی است؛ بنابراین، با توجه به این که هرکدام از شاخص ها و پارامترهای مطرح شده در افزایش قدرت ملی نقش دارند می توان نتیجه گرفت که ایران می تواند با استفاده از موقعیت خود در جاده ابریشم، قدرت ملی خود را افزایش دهد و جایگاه ژئوپلیتیکی خود را نیز ارتقاء بخشد.The geopolitical and geoeconomic capacities of the Silk Road to increase Iran's national power
Extended IntroductionAs a trade route, the Silk Road has been a ring between the East and West of the world for centuries and passes through China, India, Iran, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Eastern Europe. Due to its transit position, Iran is located in the center of overlapping regions, Iran is located in the center of the intersection of world energy production and consumption axes; In the north-south vertical axis, it is located in the center of the two energy sources of the Persian Gulf and Central Asia and the Caucasus, and in the east-west axis, it is located in the center of the two energy consuming regions of East Asia and Europe, which means that Iran has a privileged distribution position. There are eight major transit routes in the peripheral region of Iran, which, of course, have different levels of importance and progress. In terms of territory, Iran shares land borders with eight countries and is considered a neighbor with seven other countries due to sea borders, and because of this position, it can make contact with the total market of 650 million of these countries. All of the aforementioned means that our country has the possibility and potential for extensive regional and global interactions in order to increase the share of foreign direct investment inside and increase its production capacity due to its geopolitical position at a high level. Meanwhile, the important and accessible point in 1402 is to at least activate the country's diplomatic and economic capacities to develop relations with neighboring countries based on the aforementioned geopolitical advantages; an action that can make the production leap in reality. Having and using the geo-economic position is an important factor in increasing the national power of countries. Iran is also in a favorable position in terms of geo-economic position, but despite having geo-economic components, including in the area of transit location, it has not gained much in the use of this favorable potential. The purpose of this research is to investigate the geopolitical and geoeconomic capacities of the Silk Road to increase Iran's national power. MethodologyThe current research was done with a descriptive-analytical method and based on the study of historical, scientific, library, documentary and field texts. In the library method, the study of documents, sites, yearbooks and related organizations and institutions has been used. The method of analyzing the findings is quantitative and qualitative. A questionnaire was also used to collect field data. The statistical population of the research is one hundred experts of different fields of political geography and geopolitics, political science, international relations, transportation economics. Each of the dimensions of the subject have been analyzed and evaluated with statistical methods and the use of spss software. The test used in this research is one-sample T. Results and DiscussionGeopolitical challenges Since the beginning of this century, the Middle East has been experiencing a deep transformation that has exposed the region to geopolitical threats and instability. Since the regional order and international relations have not yet reached a new equilibrium in the process of collapse, such restructuring can easily cause geopolitical conflicts, even wars, and lead to increased uncertainty and risk in the construction of the new Silk Road. Geoeconomic challenges The perspective of the successful implementation of the Silk Road strategy in the Middle East should also be seen in the context of the geo-economic challenges that the countries of the region are still struggling with. These challenges range from many barriers to market access, administrative corruption, complex business environment, weak governance and the rule of law, low regional economic and commercial integration, lack of economic diversity and low productivity growth to income inequality in project financing, barriers to doing business, Regime stability, concerns about loan and investment conditions, and lack of central coordination. First, most countries in the Middle East are in the early stages of industrialization and are exposed to the influence of the United States and the West. Therefore, the Belt and Road Initiative faces both internal and external constraints. The Silk Road can make an important contribution to countries' incomes due to the fact that Iran is located on the four crossings of the world and has access to three important international transportation routes: the Caspian Sea, the Persian Gulf, and the Oman Sea, and is located on the main corridors. Global transportation has a prominent transit position. In this research, eight categories of dimensions of the importance of the Silk Road for Iran were identified, which are: 1- Geopolitical role 2- Corridor role 3- In terms of energy and goods 4- In terms of employment and income 6- In terms of control power 6- From the aspect of tourism and tourism and 7- from the aspect of dependence and security 8- from the aspect of communication. The components related to each dimension were turned into items and experts' opinions about them were collected by designing a questionnaire. ConclusionConsidering that each of the indicators and parameters related to the Silk Road play a role in increasing national power, it can be concluded that Iran can increase its national power and improve its geopolitical status by using the corridor position. Iran's corridor position along with the expansion of transportation and international communications can increase the dependence of countries on Iran's geographical space and also lead to Iran's bargaining power over communication processes. The passage of the energy pipeline of the Caspian countries through Iran ties Iran's security to the economy of those countries. In fact, each of the country's active borders that are active in the field of transit, no matter how much they have a suitable activity in attracting the communication and transit processes of countries including Central Asia and the Caucasus, considering that these countries mostly choose the path that first In terms of security, it should be in good condition, and secondly, they choose a more economical route to pay less transit costs. Therefore, by passing and transferring petroleum or non-petroleum goods or passengers from transiting countries, in addition to receiving transit rights and increasing income, it is possible to create a control capacity for Iran that can be viewed from the upstream position and most importantly The security that these countries obtain due to the fact that their interests are tied to the security of Iran can prevent the creation of tension and some kind of crisis that may arise in the relations between the countries, and as mentioned before, this factor It can make transit countries to consider Iran's security considerations in their political behavior. Regarding the creation of bargaining power and dependence which is obtained in this way and leads to security, considering that Iran has a semi-arid state and due to the lack of rainfall compared to the world average, agriculture cannot be considered as It was considered a source of foreign exchange and increasing national power, and also considering that the country's economy is currently a single-product economy, and one day energy resources will face a shortage and crisis, and also that Iran is at the crossroads of global geopolitics. And the main world transportation routes pass through Iran, the Silk Road can play an irreplaceable role in this. The specific geopolitical location of the Silk Road can be effective in attracting communication and transit processes for Iran. The need of other countries to transport goods or passengers through Iran's Silk Road can have many advantages for Iran; including security, dependence and creating a capacity that can control the communication corridors passing through its territory. It can also play a stronger role in the development of tourism. On the other hand, the advantages and opportunities related to the Silk Road can increase the country's national income, and each of these sectors can play a positive role in the discussion about employment, which is the main problem of the country. The preparation of platforms and the development of infrastructures as well as the development of services in the management and software sector will increase its advantage in this economic and geopolitical environment and, accordingly, increase its national power. The location of the Silk Road can increase the dependence of other countries on the geographical space of Iran and lead to the creation of Iran's bargaining power in communication processes.
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