Future scenarios

Due to different interests, ideologies, and geopolitical goals, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia have long been in competition, which occasionally got severe. After a seven-year rupture, on March 10, 2023, the two states agreed to restore diplomatic relations to reduce tensions. This research examines the rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia and tries to answer this question: what are the future scenarios of the Iran-Saudi Arabia rapprochement? To tackle the question, this research tends to analyze the Iranian-Saudi relationship and shed light on the future scenarios of the deal from an Iranian perspective. Three scenarios are presented: the first one is the cynical one and pays attention to challenges and the driving forces that can deteriorate the present de-escalated relations. The second scenario considers the positive potentialities of the deal and the situation it can make for more stability and peace. The third one regards both elements of tension and compatibility. Ultimately, the third scenario is considered the most logical one based on the framework presented as the Balance of Interests.

This study fills important gap in literature by examining how knowledge diplomacy can drive transformation in Iran’s education. Confronting outdated policies and rapidly shifting global benchmarks, in what ways can knowledge diplomacy be harnessed to promote lasting innovation and address the systemic obstacles facing Iranian schools? Drawing on a condensed Causal Layered Analysis framework, the research explores: surface-level patterns like policy changes and international partnerships, the economic and structural forces at work, dominant cultural narratives and ideologies, and deep metaphors that influence public and institutional mindsets. By streamlining methodological exposition, the paper remains sharply focused on practical implications for school leaders and policymakers. From this analysis, four future leadership scenarios emerge: An Alternative scenario marked by heightened global engagement; A Trend-Based scenario of slow progress amid cautious modernization; An Exploratory scenario prioritizing inward-looking reforms and curriculum design; A Back-casting scenario envisioning Iran as a hub of collaborative educational excellence. The findings demonstrate that embedding knowledge diplomacy strategically not only remedies current weaknesses in Iran’s schooling system but also lays down a solid foundation for far-reaching reforms that align domestic practice with international standards. The study concludes with targeted recommendations, urging educational leaders and policy architects to adopt proactive strategies, cultivate visionary leadership, and establish flexible policy frameworks. In doing so, Iran’s sector can become more innovative, responsive, and globally competitive. Beyond its immediate conclusions, this integrated analysis advances our understanding of how knowledge exchange and policy reform interact, offering a clear roadmap for sustained progress in today’s dynamic educational landscape.