Turkmenistan

Geopolitical factors have always significantly influenced the politics and behavior of governments due to the continuity and stability of their effects. In Turkmenistan, due to the geopolitical characteristics of this country, examining and paying attention to these factors and their effects play an important role in terms of understanding and predicting the policies and behavior of Turkmenistan’s government. Also, these characteristics seem to become more important because of this country’s neighborhood and many commonalities with the Islamic Republic of Iran. The main question of this article is about the effects of Turkmenistan's geopolitics on the politics and the behavior of its government. Based on this study, it will be argued that Turkmenistan's geopolitics has, directly and indirectly, affected the politics and behavior of Turkmenistan’s government by creating threats and issues such as instability and insecurity. It has also caused authoritarianism and centralism in the government.

The importance of energy transmission pipelines, particularly for natural gas, is widely recognized due to the global dependence on energy. For landlocked Central Asian countries, natural gas pipelines play a crucial role in sustaining their energy-driven economies. Given its geographical constraints, Turkmenistan places significant emphasis on projects like the Trans-Caspian Pipeline. This pipeline, if implemented, would enable Turkmenistan to export natural gas to Azerbaijan, potentially bringing substantial changes to the region’s energy landscape. This article adopts a qualitative research method and employs the theoretical framework of the Copenhagen School. The central research question is: What are the key drivers and obstacles to the implementation of the Trans-Caspian Pipeline in the coming years? The research hypothesis suggests that factors such as the finalization of the convention on the legal status of the Caspian Sea, Turkmenistan’s energy security concerns, the resolution of disputed energy fields between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war serve as major driving forces. Conversely, environmental concerns, Turkmenistan’s economic and political situation, and opposition from Iran, Russia, and China are among the key obstacles hindering the project's realization.