Monte Carlo

Nowadays, most of Businesses have faced a great challenge for entering a new market. The existence conditions have forced the managers to apply the innovative methods for simultaneous analyzing of various factors for arrival to special markets. This paper prioritizes a few target markets using two methods. First, the problem is solved by the combined method of hierarchical analysis and Monte Carlo simulation, and then by the method of fuzzy hierarchical analysis and finally the results of both methods are compared. The considered problem in this study relates to a factory of prefabricated building components that is looking for establishing the sale agencies in appropriate towns in order to introduce and distribute the new products. In order to prioritize cities, desired criteria are determined through interviews with experts and investigating the previous studies. The research findings have shown that based on the four main criteria and seven related sub-criteria, the prioritization of selected cities as markets has been A-D-C-B respectively. In the end, it is concluded that based on the findings of this study, managers and stakeholders should pay attention to these priorities in choosing the target market. In this research, for the first time, the combined Monte Carlo technique and hierarchical analysis have been used to select the market. Market selection is one of the issues that has always been a concern of managers and has been associated with a lot of risk. Using Monte Carlo simulation algorithm and hierarchical analysis, by considering different decision intervals, greatly reduces the risk of selection, so this technique is recommended to managers of organizations as a practical method in market selection.