Granger causality

Identifying the causal relations between trading volume and stock returns and between trading volume and return volatility plays a vital role in identifying profitable investment opportunities. In this study, the Granger causality test was conducted to analyze the causal relationships between the mentioned variables in Tehran Stock Exchange. Consequently, the Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model was employed to determine the conditional mean equations of returns and volume. Moreover, the bivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model was used to model the conditional variance equation, stating the relationship between volume and return volatility. According to the results, no bilateral causal relationship can be ascertained between returns, volume, and return volatility. In other words, return and return volatility could barely predict volume; therefore, volume cannot be the Granger causality of the other two variables. However, stock returns were found to have an important role in determining the volume. Likewise, return volatility can be used to predict volume accurately. In fact, stock returns and the return volatility were both the Granger causalities of the volume.

Networks are useful tools for presenting the relationships between financial institutions. During the previous years, many scholars have found that using single-layer networks cannot properly characterize and explain complex systems. The purpose of this research is to introduce a multiplex network in order to analyze, as accurately as possible, all aspects of communication between banks in capital market of Iran. In this article, each bank represents a node and three layers of return, trading volume and market Cap have been presented for analyzing the idea of multiplex networks. We have used the Granger causality method to determine the direction between nodes. For understanding the topology structure of these layers, different concepts have been used. The research findings show that the value layer topology has a significant similarity with the trading volume layer. Also according to the measure of centrality it can be seen that the centrality varies in different layers.

Does financial sector develop in line with its nature? Does part of financial development, which is in line with its nature, approve mainstream opinion in regard to finance-growth relationship? By considering financialization phenomenon within an ARDL-Bounds testing approach, this study re-examined the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth in the USA during the period 1961–2012. Using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), indicators of financial sector development (FD) and financialization (FIN) were created. After that, Granger causality test was applied using the ARDL-ECM methodology. According to the results: 1) a bilateral relationship between financial development and economic growth was observed; while financial development had negative and significant impact on economic growth, the influence of economic growth on financial development was not significant although it was positive; 2) financialization significantly affected financial development through efficiency channel. Obtained results can be used by policy makers in different countries, although the study is applied for the USA.

Does financial sector develop in line with its nature? Does part of financial development, which is in line with its nature, approve mainstream opinion in regard to finance-growth relationship? By considering financialization phenomenon within an ARDL-Bounds testing approach, this study re-examined the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth in the USA during the period 1961–2012. Using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), indicators of financial sector development (FD) and financialization (FIN) were created. After that, Granger causality test was applied using the ARDL-ECM methodology. According to the results: 1) a bilateral relationship between financial development and economic growth was observed; while financial development had negative and significant impact on economic growth, the influence of economic growth on financial development was not significant although it was positive; 2) financialization significantly affected financial development through efficiency channel. Obtained results can be used by policy makers in different countries, although the study is applied for the USA. JEL Classification: O11; O16; O51; G20.