نقش پیشرفت تکنولوژی، ریسک بازارهای مالی و کیفیت نهادی در تأثیرگذاری درآمدهای منابع طبیعی بر توسعه مالی (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
در ادبیات نفرین منابع، بررسی اثر درآمدهای منابع طبیعی بر توسعه مالی امری پیچیده محسوب شده و پدیده نفرین منابع مالی مورد توجه بسیاری از محققان است. اثرگذاری درآمدهای منابع طبیعی بر توسعه مالی هر کشور می تواند تحت تأثیر عواملی نظیر پیشرفت تکنولوژی، ریسک بازار مالی و کیفیت نهادی کشور قرار گرفته و این عقیده وجود دارد که این عوامل می توانند بر موهبت بودن یا نفرین بودن منابع طبیعی اثرگذار باشند. با توجه به اهمیت این موضوع، در پژوهش حاضر تأثیر درآمدهای منابع طبیعی بر توسعه مالی، توسعه نهادهای مالی و توسعه بازارهای مالی با در نظر گرفتن نقش سه عامل پیشرفت تکنولوژی، ریسک مالی و کیفیت نهادی در منتخبی از کشورهای درحال توسعه برخوردار از منابع طبیعی طی دوره زمانی 2000-2021 با به کارگیری مدل حداقل مربعات کاملاً اصلاح شده (FMOLS) مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. نتایج نشان می دهد که درآمدهای منابع طبیعی منجر به توسعه بازارهای مالی شده و پیشرفت تکنولوژی و کیفیت نهادی نیز موجب تقویت این تأثیر مثبت می شوند درحالی که ریسک بازارهای مالی منجر به تضعیف این تأثیرگذاری مثبت می شود. از سوی دیگر یافته ها بیان می دارد با وجود اینکه فرضیه نفرین منابع در تأثیرگذاری درآمدهای منابع طبیعی بر توسعه مالی و بر توسعه نهادهای مالی تأیید می شود اما پیشرفت تکنولوژی و کیفیت نهادی از مقدار این اثرگذاری منفی کاسته و لذا فرضیه نفرین منابع را تضعیف می کند و در مقابل، ریسک بازارهای مالی فرضیه نفرین منابع را تقویت می نماید.The Role of Technological Innovation, Financial Market Risk, and Institutional Quality in Shaping the Impact of Natural Resource Revenues on Financial Development
The resource curse hypothesis, as an important area of research, addresses the complex relationship between natural resource revenues and financial development. The impact of natural resource revenues on the financial development of any country can be influenced by factors such as technological innovation, financial market risk, and institutional quality. It is believed that these factors can influence whether natural resources act as a blessing or a curse. In this line, the present study examined the impact of natural resource revenues on financial development, the development of financial institutions, and the development of financial markets. Applying the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) model to data from 2000 to 2021, the analysis focused on the role of technological innovation, financial risk, and institutional quality in a selected group of developing countries with rich natural resources. According to the findings, natural resource revenues contribute to the development of financial markets, with technological innovation and institutional quality enhancing this positive effect, while financial market risk diminishes it. The findings showed that although the resource curse hypothesis is supported regarding the impact of natural resource revenues on overall financial development and the development of financial institutions, technological innovation and institutional quality mitigate this negative effect, thereby undermining the resource curse hypothesis. However, financial market risk intensifies the resource curse hypothesis. Introduction Natural resources serve as a foundation for a country’s economic growth and development. The countries endowed with natural resources should leverage them to achieve sustainable economic growth. In other words, natural resources are viewed as a driving force for transforming developing and emerging economies into developed ones. Many economists support the idea that economic development significantly depends on resource abundance. However, a growing body of empirical evidence suggests that countries rich in natural resources often experience lower economic growth compared to those without such resources. This paradoxical relationship between resource abundance and slower economic progress was first introduced by Auty (2002) as the resource curse hypothesis. Despite numerous studies on natural resource wealth, a definitive answer has yet to be found regarding whether natural resources are ultimately a blessing or a curse. In the literature on the resource curse, the impact of natural resource revenues on financial development remains particularly complex. Researchers highlight several key factors-such as technological innovation (TIN), financial market risk (FMR), and institutional quality (IQ)-as critical in determining whether natural resources are a blessing or a curse. The present study aimed to examine the impact of natural resource revenues on financial development. Materials and Methods This study aimed to examine the impact of natural resource revenues on financial development, with a particular focus on testing the resource curse hypothesis. A fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) model was applied to analyze the data from 2000 to 2021. The analysis focused on a group of resource-rich developing countries, including Iran, Russia, Saudi Arabia, China, Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Chile, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Republic of the Congo, Nigeria, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Qatar, and Vietnam. The modeling approach is based on three key factors—technological innovation, financial market risk, and institutional quality—that may influence the relationship between natural resource revenues and financial development. These variables were incorporated into the model through interaction terms. This allows for an assessment of how each variable shapes the relationship between natural resource revenues and financial development. Based on the proposed theoretical framework and previous research, the general form of the panel data model used in this study is as follows: (1) (2) (3) Moreover, three financial development indicators were considered as dependent variables across Models (1) to (3). In Model (1), the dependent variable FD represents the overall financial development index; in Model (2), FI denotes the financial institutions development index; and in Model (3), FM stands for the financial markets development index. Other variables were defined as follows: NRR for natural resource revenues, TIN for technological innovation, FMR for financial market risk, IQ for institutional quality, and GDP for gross domestic product. Results and Discussion The results of the FMOLS model estimation indicated that natural resource revenues had a negative impact on overall financial development and the development of financial institutions in a selection of resource-rich developing countries, thereby confirming the resource curse hypothesis in these two areas. However, natural resource revenues positively influenced the development of financial markets. Furthermore, the FMOLS estimates for the technological innovation showed a positive relationship with all three indicators: financial development, financial institution development, and financial market development. This suggests that technological innovation can help reduce production costs and increase production efficiency through improved natural resource management. As a result, it enhances the profitability of manufacturing firms and the financial sustainability of businesses, thus facilitating economic and financial development. Regarding financial market risk, the FMOLS model showed a negative relationship with all three dimensions of financial development. This indicates that components of financial market risk-such as external debt, exchange rate volatility, debt service, capital account, and international liquidity-create economic uncertainty, which discourages investment and participation in financial markets. Consequently, this weakens overall financial development, financial institutions, and financial markets. Finally, institutional quality was found to have a positive effect on financial development and financial markets, but a negative effect on the development of financial institutions. This may be explained by the idea that the stronger rule of law is likely to enhance the efficiency of natural resource management within an economy. Conclusion In sum, a lack of technological innovation, high financial risk, and weak institutional quality-along with factors such as policy imbalances and low levels of human development-contribute to the occurrence of the resource curse hpothesis in resource-rich countries.
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