آینده نگاری توسعه لیگ برتر فوتبال عراق مبتنی بر سناریو در افق 1454(ه.ق) (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
فوتبال یکی از صنایع مهم در جهان است. به منظور توسعه لیگ برتر فوتبال عراق در افق 1454 و بهبود وضع موجود، این پژوهش با استفاده از تعیین سناریوهای آینده انجام شد. این پژوهش از نظر هدف کاربردی و از لحاظ داده ها کیفی بود و از رویکرد هنجاری و سناریونویسی استفاده شد. جامعه پژوهش اساتید، خبرگان و نخبگان آگاه به فوتبال به ویژه فوتبال عراق بودند. نمونه گیری هدفمند و دردسترس بود. به منظور تحلیل نتایج، ماتریس اثرات متقابل و نرم افزار سناریو ویزارد استفاده شد که متغیرهای کلیدی آن از طریق نرم افزار میک مک ارزیابی شدند. از 20 متغیر اولیه در قالب هشت دسته اصلی، 10 متغیر اثرگذار استخراج شد که شامل تنظیم قوانین حمایتی تماشاگران و هواداران، وجود باشگاه های رشد و آموزش، وجود مراکز استعدادیابی، وجود فضاهای با پتانسیل برگزاری مسابقات، تنظیم قوانین تجاری و حمایتی حامیان مالی، ایجاد بازار به منظور فروش کالاهای لیگ، تنظیم قوانین یکپارچه استفاده از استادیوم های مجهز به باشگاه ها، تدوین برنامه بازاریابی برای قیمت گذاری بلیت مسابقات، بهره گیری از فضای مجازی برای ایجاد ارزش ویژه برند و شناسایی موقعیت های مکانی و زمانی برندینگ بودند. یافته ها در قالب سه سناریو مطلوب، ادامه وضع موجود و نامطلوب برای لیگ فوتبال عراق پیشنهاد شد. سناریوها نشان می دهند که ادامه وضع موجود نمی تواند شرایط مناسبی را رقم بزند و بهتر است با پیگیری برنامه های بلندمدت به تعیین وضع مطلوب با استفاده از ابعاد اثرگذار بر سناریوی مدنظر اقدام کرد.Forecasting the Development of the Iraqi Premier Football League Based on Scenario Planning for 2032
Background and Purpose
Football is the most popular sport worldwide and has evolved into a significant industry with far-reaching economic, cultural, and social implications. It not only entertains millions but also shapes identities, fosters community belonging, and influences business behaviors among its stakeholders. In Iraq, football holds a particularly prominent position, with the Iraqi Premier Football League standing as the centerpiece of the country’s sports industry. Despite its popularity and passionate following, the Iraqi Premier League has lagged behind other countries' leagues in terms of organizational development, competition structure, and management. This research was initiated to explore the future development of the Iraqi Premier League by identifying key dimensions and requirements for its advancement, employing scenario planning and the mutual effects matrix method.
The rationale for this research is grounded in the recognition that the sustainable development of football leagues depends on a comprehensive understanding of the factors influencing their growth and the ability to anticipate future challenges and opportunities. Scenario planning, a foresight methodology, enables stakeholders to visualize different potential futures and devise strategic responses. By applying this approach to the Iraqi Premier League, the research aims to provide actionable insights and strategic options for policymakers, league organizers, and other stakeholders committed to elevating the league’s status by the year 2032.
Methods
This study employed a qualitative research design with a practical orientation and a normative approach. The research population comprised professors, experts, and elites with deep knowledge of the football industry in Iraq, including football managers and academics. The sampling strategy was purposeful and based on theoretical saturation, ensuring that participants could provide the richest and most relevant insights into the phenomenon under study. Ultimately, ten experts and elites, including managers, coaches, and professors, each with at least ten years of professional football experience and a minimum of a master’s degree, were selected for in-depth semi-structured interviews.
The primary research instrument was a semi-structured interview guide designed to elicit detailed perspectives on the current state and future prospects of the Iraqi Premier League. To ensure the validity and reliability of the findings, the study employed Wolcott’s fourfold approach, which emphasizes credibility, transferability, dependability, and confirmability in qualitative research.
For scenario development, the study utilized the mutual effects analysis matrix, a recognized tool in futures studies. This method involves mapping the qualitative effects of key variables on one another within a system, thereby constructing scenarios based on the network of mutual influences. In this research, twenty primary variables were identified and categorized into eight main groups. These variables were entered into Mic Mac software, which facilitated the formation of a twenty-by-twenty mutual effects matrix. The experts evaluated the degree of influence and dependence among variables, assigning scores from zero to three to reflect the intensity of these relationships. The process included two cycles of data analysis to ensure the robustness of the results.
The scenario wizard software was then used to synthesize the findings and generate coherent future scenarios for the league. The validity and reliability of the research tools and process were confirmed through repeated data cycles and expert consensus.
Findings
The analysis of the mutual effects matrix revealed ten key influential variables critical to the future development of the Iraqi Premier League. The regulation of support laws for spectators and fans demonstrated the highest influence coefficient on other variables, accounting for forty-five percent of influence. The availability of spaces with the potential to host competitions, the establishment of talent centers, and the existence of growth and training clubs also emerged as highly influential variables, with influence coefficients of forty-four percent, forty-three percent, and forty-two percent respectively. Additionally, the regulation of business and support laws for financial sponsors, the creation of a market for selling league goods, the setting of unified rules for the use of stadiums equipped with clubs, the development of a marketing plan for tournament ticket pricing, the utilization of virtual space to create special brand value, and the identification of spatial and temporal positions for branding were identified as critical factors shaping the league’s future.
Among these, the variable concerning the creation of an integrated competitive balance had the highest influence among all variables, with a coefficient of forty-eight percent. This was followed by increasing demand for league viewership and attractiveness, developing a strategic plan for league organization, and leveraging media for income generation and exclusive broadcasting rights, each with influence coefficients ranging between forty-two and forty-three percent.
These findings indicate that legislative frameworks, talent development, infrastructure, and strategic marketing are pivotal factors that shape the league’s trajectory. The interplay among these factors determines the league’s ability to attract fans, sponsors, and media attention, which in turn drives its commercial and competitive success.
Based on the mutual effects analysis, three main scenarios were constructed for the future of the Iraqi Premier League. The favorable or utopian scenario is characterized by optimal legislative support, robust talent development, advanced infrastructure, effective marketing, and strong stakeholder collaboration. This scenario envisions a thriving league that achieves international recognition and sustainable growth. The continuation or status quo scenario reflects the persistence of current challenges and moderate improvements. The league maintains its existing structure with incremental progress but fails to achieve transformative change. The unfavorable or bell’s slavery scenario is marked by stagnation or regression due to inadequate reforms, weak stakeholder engagement, and missed opportunities for modernization. The league struggles with declining competitiveness and relevance.
Conclusion
This research, through its applied and standardized scenario development approach, has identified the key determinants of the Iraqi Premier League’s future. The use of library research, expert interviews, and advanced scenario planning tools has enabled a comprehensive analysis of the league’s developmental landscape. The findings underscore the importance of revisiting and updating legislative frameworks, fostering collaboration between public and private sectors, implementing effective marketing strategies, and diversifying urban and stadium spaces to unlock the league’s full potential.
To realize the favorable scenario, the study recommends reviewing and strengthening laws related to spectator and sponsor support, integrating judiciary and policy-making efforts, enhancing public-private partnerships, promoting constructive marketing and branding strategies, and diversifying and upgrading event locations and facilities.
By adopting these strategies, the Iraqi Premier League can position itself for sustained growth, increased competitiveness, and greater appeal to fans and commercial partners alike.
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