شناسایی و ارزیابی عوامل بازدارنده و تقویت کننده گردشگری برون مرزی در ایران با تمرکز بر عوارض خروج: به کارگیری روش ARDL (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
در سال های گذشته، افزایش عوارض خروج از کشور همواره با انتقاداتی روبه رو بوده است. عوارض خروج از کشور یکی از راه های درآمدی دولت برای جبران کسری بودجه است. با توجه به اهمیت مسافرت های خارجی در ارتباط گیری با سایر نقاط جهان، پژوهش حاضر به بررسی اثر افزایش عوارض خروج از کشور بر مسافرت های خارجی در کشور ایران پرداخته است. سال های 1385 تا ۱۴۰۰ برای دوره زمانی تحقیق با توجه به دسترسی به داده ها، بررسی شد. در این پژوهش، از روش ARDL برای بررسی هم انباشتگی و از آزمون علیت گرنجر برای تحلیل رابطه علت و معلولی بین متغیرها استفاده شده است. متغیر وابسته این پژوهش تعداد مسافرت های خارجی بوده است. متغیرهای مستقل شامل عوارض خروج از کشور، تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه، نرخ ارز، نرخ تورم و هزینه ویزاست. نتایج بلندمدت و کوتاه مدت نشان داد که متغیرهای تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه و نرخ تورم اثر مثبت و معناداری بر تعداد مسافرت های خارجی (برحسب تعداد مسافر) خواهند داشت و از طرفی، متغیرهای نرخ ارز و هزینه ویزا و عوارض خروج از کشور اثر منفی و معنا داری بر کاهش تعداد مسافرت های خارجی (برحسب تعداد مسافر) خواهند گذاشت. همچنین اندازه ضرایب در کوتاه مدت نشان می دهد که به لحاظ قدرمطلقی، اندازه ها کمتر از ضرایب بلندمدت هستند و این نشان می دهد که متغیرها در بلندمدت تأثیر متقابل و تقویت کننده ای بر یکدیگر دارند. ضریب تصحیح خطای هم انباشتگی (ECM) برابر 62 درصد برآورد شد. این نشان می دهد که سالانه 62 درصد از هرگونه انحراف از تعادل بلندمدت جبران می شود.Identifying and Evaluating the Preventing and Enhancing Factors of Outbound Tourism in Iran (ARDL Model)
In the past years, the increase in departure tax has always been criticised. On the other hand, departure tax is one of the government's income to overcome the budget deficit. Regarding the importance of outbound tourism in expanding relations with other countries, the present research tries to investigate the impact of increase in departure tax on outbound tourism in Iran. The period of 2006-2021 was examined in this research due to data access. In this study, the ARDL test method was utilized to check the accumulation in the series and the Granger Causality Method was also used to check the cause and effect relationship between the variables. Dependent variable is the number of outbound trips (in terms of the number of passengers) and the explanatory variables are departure tax, GDP per capita, currency exchange rate, inflation rate and visa cost. The results show that the GDP per capita and the inflation rate have a positive and significant effect on the number of outbound trips, and the exchange rate, visa cost and the departure tax have negative and significant effects on the number of travelers. The size of the coefficients in short term also show that; the absolute values are somewhat lower than the long-run coefficients, which suggests that they reinforce each other in the long-run in trms of mutual effects of the variables. The ECM coefficient is also equal to 62% which shows that in each one-year time period, 62% of the deviation from the long-term balance is compensated. Keywords: Departure Tax, Outboundtravel, Tourism, ARDL Model, Grangery Causality 1. IntroductionTourism has become one of the largest and most profitable economic sectors in the world and is known as the third largest economic industry in the world. In the present era, tourism is considered one of the effective factors in expanding relations between nations and is considered to be a creator of job opportunities in the economic sector and the creation of socio-cultural interactions. Given the benefits of tourism, many countries consider this industry as a major source of income, employment, private sector growth, and infrastructure development. One way to generate income through the tourism industry could be through the fees that people have to pay when leaving the country. In the past years, the increase in departure tax has always been criticised. On the other hand, departure tax is one of the government's income to overcome the budget deficit. Regarding the importance of outbound tourism in expanding relations with other countries, the present research tries to investigate the impact of increase in departure tax on outbound tourism in Iran. The period of 2006-2021 was examined in this research due to data access. Radmanesh (1402) calls exit fees a tax paid by travelers. Despite governments’ justifications for imposing tourism fees and taxes, the literature has different opinions on the importance of tourism taxes on the economy. Since increasing fees has significant negative effects on the tourism industry, several studies suggest eliminating or reducing entry and exit fees. One type of tax that has become popular in recent years as a result of the expansion of transportation and communications, in the form of travel to other countries, is the fees that countries collect from their citizens when they leave the country. In fact, exit fees are a type of fee that an individual pays when traveling abroad. This amount varies for each group of travelers according to the frequency and reason for the trip. In Iran, the amount of fees is proposed to the Islamic Consultative Assembly every year by the government, and if approved, a new rate for exit fees is considered. Factors such as the number of trips abroad, the type of border, and the type of trip (pilgrimage, tourism, and business) are influential in determining the cost of exit fees. According to the new resolution, 50 percent will be added to the second trip and 100 percent to the third trip compared to the exit fees for the first trip. 2. Literature ReviewThe literature that explicitly addresses the issue of tourism taxes and levies is somewhat vague compared to the tax literature in general. According to Fujii, Khaled and Mak (1985), tourism taxes come in a variety of forms and are imposed by national and local governments as a means of financing public services used by both tourists and residents of tourist destinations. A tourism tax is an attractive option for governments facing budget constraints and pressure to reduce their reliance on other types of taxes. The tax can be levied on tourism businesses or directly on tourists. Both methods may be implemented through the general tax system of the economy or through specific programs. It should be noted that most countries only charge an exit tax when someone leaves via air travel, in effect it is a tax that travelers pay for using the airport. Finally, the general definition of tourism taxes and levies can be summarized as provided by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (2014), which states that indirect taxes and levies that mainly affect tourism-related activities and are considered as one of the main elements of helping to generate tax revenue, finance environmental protection and public investment, and develop infrastructure to improve the management of the impact of tourism in sensitive areas. Exit fees are not specific to Iran, and all countries around the world charge this fee from tourists who want to leave the country. 3. MethodologyThe present study is of a research-analytical type and from a methodological perspective, the research was conducted based on the "library-documentary research" method. In the first stage, based on the results of a library study on theoretical foundations and research background, the initial framework of the factors inhibiting and enhancing foreign travel in Iran was identified, focusing on exit fees by using the ARDL method. Then, the evaluation was carried out using the results of the ARDL method. The data period studied is from 1400-1385 and the study population is Iran. The variables studied in the present study are the logarithm of the number of foreign trips in terms of the number of passengers (LnPt), the logarithm of gross domestic product per capita (Ln GDPt), the logarithm of the exchange rate (Ln EXRt), the logarithm of the inflation rate (Ln INFt), and the logarithm of visa costs and exit fees (Ln LEVt), and the relevant data were collected from the World Bank and the Statistical Center of Iran. In this study, the self-explanatory model with extended lags, introduced by Pesaran et al. (2001), was used to examine cointegration and estimate short-run and long-run relationships between the number of foreign trips, GDP per capita, exchange rate, inflation rate, and visa fees and exit fees. 4. ResultsThe average number of foreign trips in terms of number of passengers during the period under review was 789,036. The average GDP per capita, exchange rate, inflation rate, visa cost and exit fees are respectively 4637.52 dollars, 14543.09 tomans, 21.17 percent, and 420994.33 million rials. Table 1 also presents the results of descriptive statistics and pairwise correlations. Using the Jarko-Bara statistic, the results indicate that all series such as the number of foreign trips in terms of number of passengers, logarithm of GDP per capita, logarithm of exchange rate, logarithm of inflation rate and logarithm of visa costs and exit fees have a normal distribution. The pairwise correlation analysis in Table 1 indicates that there is a correlation between all explanatory variables and the number of foreign trips in terms of number of passengers, but the variables logarithm of exchange rate and logarithm of visa costs and exit fees have a positive correlation, and the variables logarithm of GDP per capita and logarithm of inflation rate have a negative correlation with the number of foreign trips in terms of number of passengers. The long-term results indicate that the coefficients of the variables are highly significant and their signs are consistent with economic theories. In such a way that the increase and intensity of the trend of each variable affects the dependent variable (the number of people included in outbound travel). The significance of the coefficients of the variables means that these variables have a significant effect (according to the sign of the coefficients) on foreign travel in the long run. In this case, with a one percent increase in gross domestic product per capita (Ln GDPt ); the variable of the number of foreign trips (in terms of the number of passengers) increases by 0.0193 percent in the long run. Also, with a one percent increase in the inflation rate (Ln INFt); the number of foreign trips (in terms of the number of passengers) increases by 0.0101 percent in the long run. On the other hand, with a one percent increase in the exchange rate (Ln EXRt); The number of foreign trips (in terms of number of passengers) will decrease by 0.0144 percent in the long run. Also, a one percent increase in visa fees and exit fees (Ln LEVt) will decrease the number of foreign trips (in terms of number of passengers) by 0.0117 percent in the long run. As the short-term results show; with a one percent increase in GDP per capita (Ln GDPt ); the variable number of foreign trips (in terms of number of passengers) increases by 0.0113 percent in the short term. Also, with a one percent increase in the inflation rate (Ln INFt ); the variable number of foreign trips (in terms of number of passengers) increases by 0.0092 percent in the short term. In contrast, a one percent increase in the exchange rate (Ln EXRt ) and a one percent increase in visa fees and exit fees (Ln LEVt ) decrease the number of foreign trips (in terms of number of passengers) by 0.0158 percent and 0.0117 percent in the short term, respectively. As the size of the coefficients in the short term shows; In absolute terms, the sizes are smaller than the long-run coefficients, indicating that in terms of the effects of the variables on each other, these variables reinforce each other in the long run. 5. ConclusionIn this study, the relationship between the variables of exit fees, GDP per capita, exchange rate, inflation rate and visa fees on foreign travel was examined and the relevant data for the period 1385-1400 were collected from the World Bank and the Statistical Center of Iran. The overall results indicated that according to the Jarko-Bera statistic, all series including the number of foreign trips in terms of the number of passengers, the logarithm of GDP per capita, the logarithm of exchange rate, the logarithm of visa fees and exit fees have a normal distribution. Also, according to pairwise correlations, it was determined that there is a correlation between all explanatory variables and the number of foreign trips in terms of the number of passengers. In addition, the results in the long and short term showed that the variables of GDP per capita and inflation rate will have a significant and positive effect on the number of foreign trips (in terms of the number of passengers), and on the other hand, the variables of exchange rate and visa costs and exit fees will have a significant and negative effect on reducing the number of foreign trips (in terms of the number of passengers), and in the long term, the effects of the variables on each other will reinforce each other. Based on the results, it is recommended that tourism planners make decisions more carefully regarding the increase in visa costs and exit fees, which are negative and deterrent factors in the process of foreign travel, because they reduce communication with the outside world and, in terms of tourism boom, will have deterrent effects in both the short and long term.
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