واکاوی فرصت ها و تهدید های کشت دوم برنج در روستاهای بخش لاله آباد (شهرستان بابل/استان مازندران) (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
برنج کاری یکی از مهم ترین فعالیت اقتصادی در استان مازندران و منبع اصلی درآمد کشاورزان است. این استان با تولید بیش از یک میلیون تن برنج در هر سال، حدود ۴۲ درصد برنج مورد نیاز کشور را تامین می کند. این تحقیق به صورت مروری بوده و روش آن به صورت توصیفی- تحلیلی و میدانی است و جامعه آماری، روستاهای بخش لاله آباد شهرستان بابل می باشند که با استفاده از فرمول کوکران، 330 نفر از کشاورزان و کارشناسان به عنوان جامعه نمونه انتخاب شدند و در نهایت با استفاده از تحلیل همبستگی گاما، آزمون فریدمن و رگرسیون خطی چندگانه در محیط نرم افزاری SPSS، داده ها مورد تجزیه و تحلیل قرار گرفتند. نتایج حاصل از آزمون فریدمن ضمن بیان تاثیر معنادار کشت دوم برنج بر رونق اقتصادی خانوارهای روستایی، حاکی از آن است که تفاوت معناداری بین شاخص های متعدد اقتصادی وجود دارد. نتایج حاصل از تحلیل همبستگی گاما، حاکی از رابطه معنادار و همبستگی آسیب های متعدد زیست محیطی با رونق و گسترش بی رویه کشت دوم برنج می باشد. همچنین محاسبه ضریب تعیین در تحلیل رگرسیون خطی چندگانه نشان می دهد که تهدیدهای زیست محیطی بررسی شده در تحقیق حاضر تا 65 درصد به گسترش بی رویه کشت دوم برنج وابسته است. براین اساس برای تقویت و رونق اقتصادی کشت دوم و ممانعت از تخریب احتمالی محیط زیست روستایی، برنامه ریزی بهینه کشت دوم برنج به منظور پایداری محیط زیست روستایی در چارچوب طرح آمایش سرزمین امری اجتناب ناپذیر است. وازگان کلیدی: فرصت ها، تهدیدها، توسعه پایدار اقتصادی، استان مازندران.Analyzing the opportunities and threats of second rice cultivation in the villages of Lale Abad district (Babol city/Mazandaran province)
IntroductionIn Mazandaran province, nearly 230,000 hectares of land are used for rice cultivation, and in recent years, approximately 85,000 hectares of land have been under second rice cultivation. In 2021, about 300,000 tons of paddy rice were harvested in the rice fields of Mazandaran from the second cultivation, which had a financial turnover of more than 10,000 billion tomans for the agricultural economy of the province. Therefore, organizing the second cultivation is undoubtedly better than its complete elimination. Nowadays, second cultivation is done in different parts of the world. Farmers in Southeast Asia and some countries of Latin America, which are located in the tropical region, cultivate rice up to three times a year due to abundant rainfall in all seasons and suitable climatic conditions.Every year, the first cultivation of rice is done in 110,000 hectares of paddy fields in the Haraz catchment area, which is located in the counties of Amol, Babol, Fereydunkenar, Mahmoudabad, and Babolsar, about 20 to 30 days earlier than in the eastern part of the province. For this reason, the largest area of second cultivation is also in this area. Rice farming is one of the most important agricultural activities in Mazandaran and a significant source of income for farmers in the province. With an annual production of over one million tons, 42% of the country's rice needs are met in this province. Statistics demonstrate that the per capita consumption of rice for each Iranian is about 36 kilograms, indicating an annual consumption of more than 3.1 million tons in the country. Approximately 2.2 million tons of rice are annually supplied from domestic production, and the remainder needs to be imported. Therefore, governmental supportive policies for self-sufficiency on the one hand, and the financial needs of small landowners on the other hand, urge farmers to engage in second rice cultivation in some coastal areas of Mazandaran Province due to favorable climatic conditions. However, considering the water scarcity challenge in Iran and the transfer of flowing water from Mazandaran Province to other parts of the country, the second cultivation of rice caused some worries and concerns that should be taken into consideration.MethodologyThis study is in review form and the terms of the method is descriptive-analytical based on field studies. The method of collecting data is based on library and field research. The study population consists of 2,565 households from eight villages in Laleh Abad District of Babol County, with a sample size of 330 rural households determined by using the Cochran formula. Multiple indices were included in the questionnaire and measured at different levels (nominal, ordinal, interval, and ratio). The validity of the questionnaire was confirmed by experts, and its reliability, using Cronbach's alpha, was calculated as 0.86 in the SPSS environment. The distribution and completion of questionnaires among rural households were conducted based on the proportion of the population in the villages by systematic simple random sampling. Data analysis was performed using gamma correlation analysis and multiple linear regression analysis in the SPSS software. In addition, ArcGIS software was used to prepare and adjust the map.Results and DiscussionThe results of the Friedman test, while indicating the significant impact of second rice cultivation on the economic prosperity of rural households, also reveal significant differences among various economic indices. On the other hand, the results of Gamma correlation analysis represent a significant relationship and correlation between various environmental damages and the unchecked expansion of second rice cultivation. Moreover, the calculation of the adjustment coefficient and coefficient of determination in multiple linear regression analysis indicates that the environmental threats surveyed in the current research are up to 65% dependent on the indiscriminate expansion of second rice cultivation. Therefore, in order to strengthen the economic prosperity of the second cultivation and prevent the possible destruction of the rural environment, optimum planning of the second rice cultivation is inevitable in order to maintain the rural environment in the framework of land-use planning.ConclusionUnfortunately, in recent years, there has been a dual policy regarding the second cultivation of rice, which has confused many farmers and villagers. On one hand, government support policies in the Sixth Development Plan emphasize rice self-sufficiency, and on the other hand, provincial managers encourage farmers to cultivate other crops with less income that do not require as much water as rice.However, field studies indicated that the second rice cultivation needs Well water only in the first four weeks and the rest of the growing process is provided by rainwater, which is not part of flowing water, and its consumption has no effect on reducing the level of underground water. Given that the coastal villages of Mazandaran are considered highly water-abundant areas with surplus water resources, presenting an appropriate cultivation pattern, seed modification, encouraging farmers to cultivate early-yielding and resistant crops, adhering to cropping calendars, and presenting a comprehensive and executable plan can bring a portion of the land under second rice cultivation. So, within the framework of sustainability principles and land-use planning, it prevents possible damage to the rural environment, while providing comprehensive benefits.
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