تبیین عوامل موثر بر پیروزی نامزدها در پیکارهای انتخاباتی و ارائه الگوی بهینه (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
نامزدهای انتخاباتی اصلی ترین بازیگر انتخابات به شمار می روند که در واقع کانون کارزار انتخاباتی به شمار می روند، حال پرسش این است که عواملی که باعث پیروزی یک نامزد انتخاباتی می شود چیست؟ عوامل گوناگونی در این زمینه موثر هستند که بر بنیاد نظریات رفتار انتخاباتی و رویکردهای نظری مشارکت سیاسی تبیین شده اند. نظریات جامعه شناختی و روانشناسی اجتماعی و اقتصاد سیاسی اصالت را در شاخص ها و مولفه ها اجتماعی، روانی و عقلی در قالب تاکید بر خرده فرهنگ ها و کلان فرهنگ های اجتماعی (ویژگی های جمعیتی و عضویت در نهادها و گروه ها)، و فرد وفادار به هویت حزبی و کنش عقلی و مطالبه محور می دانند. در همین زمینه رهیافت های نظری نخبه گرایی، ارتباطات سیاسی و جغرافیای انتخابات، اصالت را به نخبگان سیاسی و اجابت دستور، رسانه و مراودات بین جمعیت رای دهنده در فضای جغرافیایی با مقیاس های متنوع (ایالت، استان، شهرستان، بخش، همسایگی، محل و منطقه؛ تفاوت های فضایی) در قالب تاکید بر نیرو های سیاسی کنشگر، ابزارهای ارتباطی فضاساز و پوشنده تمامی جمعیت (رای دهنده) فضای جغرافیایی می دانند. بنابراین می توان گفت عامل ها، متنوع و ناهم وزن هستند به طوری که هر یک از این عوامل و راهبردها سازوکارها و موقعیت عملکردی خاص خود را دارند اما در بین این عوامل و استراتژی ها، پنج راهبرد (عامل) به همراه محورهای آنها یعنی شخصیت فردی و اجتماعی نامزدها، احزاب سیاسی، پول و منابع مالی، رسانه و نگرش جغرافیایی و متفاوت پنداشتن اهمیت فضاها و مکان های رای خیز، بیشترین و قوی ترین نقش و جایگاه را در پیروزی نامزد انتخاباتی بر عهده دارند و بازیگران در درجه نخست باید این پنج فاکتور فضاساز را در پیکارهای انتخاباتی برای خود فراهم نمایند. داده کاوی سرشتی تبینی و پیمایشی دارد چراکه مقاله از جنس نظری و تجویزی است.Explaining the Factors Affecting the Victory of the Candidates in the Electoral Competitions and Presenting an Optimal Model
Introduction
Encouraging political participation through electoral behavior is the most crucial mission for a candidate and their team. In other words, how the political process is initiated and how the game is played effectively to benefit oneself while also deepening competitive democracy requires a nuanced art and comprehensive, professional strategies. Election activists can explore and utilize various aspects of political participation by understanding diverse electoral behaviors, the nature and functionality of these actions, and how to create them. There are numerous factors involved in electoral competitions that, to varying degrees, influence a candidate’s ability to secure a position and achieve political power. These factors range from cultural and social elements to economic and livelihood conditions, as well as communication, networking, and geographic factors, which are fundamental and vital in overcoming political rivals during an electoral campaign.
Methodology
The current article is a research-based study that is dual in nature regarding its objective: both fundamental/theoretical and applied. However, its predominant aspect can be considered applied, specifically problem-solving. It is applied in the sense that the results aim to settle a problem, which is how electoral candidates can achieve victory and attain political power.
Research Findings
This study showed that there is no single factor that can predict how people vote. Instead, a combination of various factors explains voting behavior in electoral contexts. There are diverse and various factors and strategies involved in the success of candidates in electoral campaigns. Political actors cannot effectively influence the voters' perception and play a significant role in elections by relying solely on one or a few components or strategies. The findings indicate that activists who have entered the electoral arena with a well-structured and comprehensive plan have managed the electoral environment more effectively. Therefore, candidates need to develop and articulate well-founded and comprehensive factors and strategies to ensure their strong and stable presence in electoral contests, enabling them to outperform their rivals, attract votes, and ultimately win the election.
Conclusions
Electoral candidates are the central actors in an election, serving as the focal point of the electoral campaign. The following question then arises: What factors contribute to a candidate's success? Various factors influence this outcome, as explained through theories of electoral behavior and political participation approaches. Sociological, social psychological, and political economic theories emphasize social, psychological, and cognitive indicators and components, focusing on subcultures and macro-social cultures (demographic characteristics and membership in institutions and groups) and the individual's loyalty to party’s identity and rational, demand-driven actions. In this context, elitist, political communication, and electoral geography theories place significance on political elites and adherence to directives, media, and interactions among the electorate within geographical spaces of varying scales (states, provinces, counties, districts, neighborhoods, and regions; spatial differences). These theories highlight the importance of active political forces, spatial communication tools, and comprehensive coverage of the electorate within the geographical space. Therefore, it can be said that the factors are diverse and unequal, with each factor and strategy having its own mechanisms and operational contexts. Among these factors and strategies, five strategies (factors) with their respective components—namely, the personal and social personality of candidates, political parties, money and financial resources, media, and geographical perspective—are considered to play the most significant and influential roles in a candidate's electoral success. Actors should primarily focus on these five spatial factors in their electoral campaigns
تبلیغات
