پیامدهای اقتصادی و اجتماعی کرونا ویروس در مناطق روستایی (مورد مطالعه: روستاهای بخش مرکزی شهرستان اردبیل) (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
در شیوع ویروس کرونا، بین جمعیت روستایی- شهری و سکونتگاه های روستایی و شهری تفاوت ویژه ای دیده نمی شود. با این حال به عنوان یک بحران، ویروس کرونا تأثیر منفی در اقتصاد روستایی داشته و یا می تواند محرک مهم برای نوآوری در مشاغل جدید در نواحی روستایی باشد. امروزه شیوع کروناویروس تبدیل به یک بحران بزرگ جهانی شده و کشورهای زیادی از جمله ایران را درگیر کرده است. پژوهش حاضر با هدف بررسی پیامدهای اقتصادی و اجتماعی کروناویروس در مناطق روستایی بخش مرکزی شهرستان اردبیل انجام یافته است، که از لحاظ هدف کاربردی و بر اساس ماهیت توصیفی- تحلیلی می باشد، جامعه آماری32روستای دارای دهیاری بخش مرکزی شهرستان اردبیل با جمعیت 8038 نفر است. حجم نمونه بر اساس فرمول کوکران 384 نفر برآورد گردد که به تناسب تعداد سرپرست خانوار موجود در هر روستا توزیع گردید. جهت بررسی موضوع از دو شاخص(اقتصادی و اجتماعی) در قالب 30 نماگر براساس مطالعات سایرمحققین بهره گرفته شد. روایی پرسشنامه توسط پانل صاحبنظران متخصص و مجرب در این حیطه مورد بررسی قرار گرفت و تأیید گردید. جهت تعیین پایایی پرسشنامه نیز تعداد 30 پرسشنامه در منطقه مشابه توزیع گردید و ضریب پایایی آن در متغیر اجتماعی 826/0، در متغیر اقتصادی 852/0 و پایایی کل پرسشنامه 839/0 برآورد گردید. نتایج نشان داد که کاهش حداکثری تعاملات اجتماعی غیرضروری در نواحی روستایی، شرط اصلی کنترل شیوع کرونا است. بعلاوه، شیوع ویروس برروی پس انداز، تعطیلی کسب وکارها، تعدیل نیروی کار و کاهش درآمد خانوار و ناکافی بودن وام های اعطایی دولت در زمینه شیوع کرونا اثر منفی داشته است.Economic and social consequences of coronavirus in rural areas (Case study: villages in the central part of Ardabil)
In the prevalence of coronavirus, there is no significant difference between rural-urban population and rural and urban settlements. However, as a crisis, the coronavirus has a negative impact on the rural economy or can be an important driver for innovation in new jobs in rural areas. Today, the coronavirus outbreak has become a major global crisis, affecting many countries, including Iran. The aim of this study was to investigate the economic and social consequences of coronavirus in rural areas of central Ardabil, which is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical nature. The statistical population is 32 villages in rural areas of central Ardabil with a population of 8038. The sample size was estimated based on Cochran's formula of 384 people, which was distributed according to the number of heads of households in each village. To study the subject, two indicators in the form of 30 indicators based on the studies of other researchers were used. The validity of the questionnaire was reviewed and confirmed by a panel of experts in this field. To determine the reliability of the questionnaire, 30 questionnaires were distributed in the same area and its reliability coefficient in the social variable was 0.826, in the economic variable was 0.852 and the total reliability of the questionnaire was 0.839. The results showed that the maximum reduction of unnecessary social interactions in rural areas is the main condition for controlling the prevalence of corona. In addition, the spread of the virus has had a negative effect on savings, business closures, labor cuts, declining household incomes, and insufficient government lending in the area of the corona outbreak.
Extended
Introduction
Infectious diseases have always existed in human history, but over time, new infectious diseases have emerged that are progressing rapidly. In developing countries, infectious diseases have led to many deaths and problems. Most people affected by these diseases live in rural areas with very few resources and limited services; These people are at high risk of these diseases due to the economic and social context of their place of residence and living conditions. One of the emerging infectious diseases in the last two years is Covid 19 disease. The prevalence of coronavirus did not distinguish between "poor and rich" and "rural-urban", while rural areas before the outbreak of Covid 19 were at the forefront of positive examples of community support, neighbors and friends; The virus can represent the creative response of the community in business and adaptation to the crisis in rural areas and an important driving force for innovation in rural jobs. Because the behavior of "counteracting and preventing corona" occurs in space and the rural environment is affected and received; Therefore, the aim of the present study was to evaluate the economic and social consequences of coronavirus in rural communities in the central part of Ardabil city.
Methodology
The present study is applied in terms of purpose and based on descriptive-analytical nature. The statistical population of the study is 32 villages in the central part of Ardabil city with a population of 8038 people. The sample size was estimated to be 366 people based on Cochran's formula. The method of data collection to answer research questions was library and questionnaire. The instrument used in the survey method was a questionnaire that in order to measure the research variables, the required indicators based on the studies of other researchers were used in combination so that the corona outcome variable of 30 indicators in the form of two economic and social indicators has been used.
Results and Discussion
In this study, a one-sample t-test was used to examine the villagers' views on the consequences of coronavirus. In this test, according to the findings, the average economic and social indices were 2.87 and 2.80, respectively. The significance level of both indicators is less than the test error level of 5%, also the average of these indicators is less than the desired three limits. Therefore, it can be said that both indicators are not in the desired level for the villagers and this issue shows the economic and social effects of coronavirus in their lives. Findings obtained from multivariate regression coefficient to investigate the share of one or more independent variables in the dependent variable showed that the level of significance of the test with a confidence level of 0.95 of economic and social index with beta coefficients of 0.793 and 0.614, respectively. Has an effect on the dependent variable. And with 0.690 and 0.582 of the total variance, respectively, explain the coronavirus outcome. Also, in order to study the consequences of coronavirus, the status of each indicator based on decision-making techniques, using Shannon entropy method, each indicator was assigned a specific weight. To the indicators of increasing savings (0.051), preventing the entry of peddlers (0.0377) and in the social index belong to the indicators of maximum reduction of unnecessary social interactions (0.049), increasing disorders and depressions (0.032), respectively.
Conclusion
The results of field findings show that economic and social indicators from the perspective of villagers with averages of 2.87 and 2.80, respectively. The level of significance of both indicators is less than the level of test error of 5%, and also the average of these indicators is less than the number of the desired three limits (number three is equivalent to 60% of respondents). Therefore, it can be said that both indicators are not in the desired level for the villagers and this issue shows the adverse effects of economic and social indicators of Corona virus on their lives. Also, the results of the study in the study of social indicators showed that the community affected by coronavirus has relative knowledge and awareness in this regard and in rural society the most important condition for controlling the prevalence of coronavirus is to reduce maximum unnecessary social interactions. Organizing for relatives and acquaintances not to travel to the village during the summer holidays is one of the important issues that are associated with it, and as a result, the social and personal relations of the rural community are affected by the corona virus epidemic. One of the most important economic consequences of coronavirus in the studied rural community is the role of encouraging households to decide to save a lot, close businesses, reduce labor force and reduce household income and insufficient government loans to prevent coronavirus.
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