تحلیل فضایی روند تغییرات سری زمانی جرایم سرقت اماکن ومناطق مسکونی در فصول مختلف سال (مورد مطالعه منطقه 14 شهر تهران) (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
میزان جرایم شهری به اندازه و درجه رشد شهر ارتباط دارد. بنابراین، شناسایی نقاط آلوده و جرم خیز، مقابله و مبارزه با جرایم سرقت از اهمیت بسزایی در ایجاد نظم و امنیت در این کانون ها و در نتیجه ارتقاءکیفیت زندگی شهروندان را دارد.بررسی توزیع فضایی کانونهای جرم خیز، مهمترین ویژگیهای کالبدی یا عوامل مکانی موثر، ترغیب کننده یا تسهیل کننده جرائم ارتکابی و تشخیص عوامل محیطی، عوامل زمینه ای با بهره گیری از آمارهای فضایی از اهداف این تحقیق می باشد. پژوهش حاضر از نوع کمی محسوب می شود. در روش اسنادی از منابع مکتوب و اخذ آمار سرقت از پلیس استفاده شد. جهت بررسی انحراف احتمالی و نوع و زمان تغییر در داده های جرایم سرقت از آزمون من- کندال استفاده شده است. جهت برآورد نمودن شیب واقعی یک روند در یک سری زمانی، استفاده از روش ناپارامتریک سنس بکارگرفته شد. نتایج نشان داد با تحلیل روند سری سرقت در منطقه 14 شهر تهران بواسطه بافت های فرسوده و قدیمی، مشکلات ناشی از معابر شهری، وجود بن بست های تاریک و مکان های خلوت در منطقه باعث شده که در فصل بهار و تابستان اغلب شهروندان این منطقه به دلیل وجود هوای مطبوع در ساعات عصرگاهی تا پاسی از شب از منازل خارج و در اماکن تجاری و تفرجگاه ها حضور دارند. بخصوص از اواخر فصل بهار و در تابستان با شروع فصل مسافرت با خالی بودن منزل باعث افزایش سرقت منزل می گردد .با آغاز فصل گرما از اواخر بهار و به ویژه در فصل تابستان شب هنگام خصوصاً در اماکن خصوصی فقدان حفاظ مناسب درب و پنجره های باغات و ویلا به ویژه از فصل پاییز تا زمستان روند افزایش سرقت را شاهد هستیم. همچنین، به علت کوتاه بودن روزها در فصل پاییز و با فرا رسیدن زمان تاریکی امکان سرقت نیز افزایش پیدا می کند.Spatial analysis of the trend of changes in the time series of theft crimes of places and residential areas in different seasons of the year based on the prevention of the crime of theft (case study of the 14th district of Tehran)
Extended IntroductionSpatial analysis of crime is one of the important subjects of crime geography. The occurrence of crimes in time and place follows certain rules. Studying the temporal and spatial correlation of crime can provide more useful clues for crime analysis and help discover potential crime patterns. Theft, as one of the crimes against property, occurs frequently in the daily life of the people of the society, which has a serious destructive effect on the social order. The selection of the place of the crime has gained a lot of influence in the last two decades. This region is currently a concern for city managers, police, and judicial officials; Therefore, identifying polluted and crime-prone areas, obtaining information on them, and having efficient policing strategies in the field of preventing, dealing with, and fighting crime is of great importance in creating order and security in these centers and, as a result, improving the quality of life of citizens. The spatial location of crime hotspots, district 14 of Tehran city, the most important physical characteristics or effective spatial factors, encouraging or facilitating the crimes committed and the detection of environmental factors, background factors are investigated and analyzed using spatial statistics, and solutions can also be provided to prevent and reduce them. Therefore, the purpose of the current research, in addition to the spatial and spatial analysis of crimes, is to analyze the trend of changes in the time series of crimes of theft of places and residential areas in different seasons of the year in the 6th police station of 14th district of Tehran. The basic question of this research is based on the principle that in the spatial analysis of theft crimes of places and residential areas of Tehran's 14th district in different seasons of the year, what is the pattern of time series and its spatial changes ?MethodologyThe current research has been used in terms of practical purpose and spatial and spatial analysis approach. In terms of the nature of collecting and analyzing graphic and statistical data, it is considered quantitative. GIS, SPSS, and Excel software have been used to collect information for the analysis of graphic data and statistics in urban crime centers. The statistical population for the investigation of crime hotspots is from the crime statistics of Fateb's 6th Chief Constable and all the numbers between the years 2013 -2017. In this research, from the statistical point of view, first, the minimum and maximum datas of theft crimes in the 14th district of Tehran city were discussed, then the average crimes and deviation from the standard of theft crimes were analyzed using SPSS 22 software. Mann-Kendall test was used to check the possible deviation and the type and time of change in the data of theft crimes. To estimate the real slope of a trend in a time series, using the non-parametric Sen, 's method can be one of the appropriate methods in this field.Results and DiscussionIn terms of comparison of the deviation from the standard of theft of premises in the 14th district of Tehran in different seasons between years 2013 -2017, the highest deviation from the standard of theft of premises was observed in autumn, summer, spring, and later winter seasons respectively.By analyzing the time series trend for the crime of theft of private places and public places of theft using the Mann-Kendall test in the 14th district of Tehran at the 95% confidence level, there was no significant seasonal and annual trend for the theft of private places. In other words, it can be said that there is no significant difference in the crime of theft of private places in the 14th district of Tehran, which indicates randomness in the data of theft of private places. In other words; This randomness and non-compliance of thefts from private and government places is a clear trend and it can be said that in this area, the policies and performance of relevant agencies,police patrols, or control measures regarding thefts of public and private places have not achieved any meaningful results. But the values of the S statistic and the significance level in the Kendall test for shoplifting and home theft crimes in the 14th district of Tehran at the 95% confidence level have a seasonal trend in the month of autumn and a significant annual trend for shoplifting and home theft crimes. In other words, it can be said that for the years 2013 -2017, there is a significant difference in the crime of shoplifting in the 14th district of Tehran, both annually and in the autumn season, which indicates that there is no coincidence in the data of shoplifting and home theft crimes and that there is a significant decreasing trend. Therefore, it can be said that the policies and performance of the relevant agencies regarding theft from shops and homes have been significantly reduced.ConclusionThe results of this research on the types of theft in the 14th district of Tehran, in terms of the distribution of crimes, show that most shop and home theft crimes are concentrated in the western and northwestern parts and the least shop and home theft crimes are concentrated in the south and southwest areas. However, the crimes of theft of private and public places do not follow a specific pattern and change from one place to another after moving for years.By comparing the minimum number of burglary crimes in different seasons of 2013 -2017, it was observed that the spring season has the lowest number of burglary crimes and occasionally in the summer season (including theft of government premises and shops) and in the fall season(including theft of homes and private places) in the winter season (theft of government places) has been observed.Compared to the maximum number of burglary crimes in different seasons of 2013 -2017, in the autumn season (theft of private places, shops, houses, and public places), the summer season (theft of houses, public places, shops, and private places) has the highest number of burglary crimes is assigned to itself.In the winter season and then in the spring season, the highest average number of theft crimes has been observed.it can be said that the control measures carried out in the autumn season were significant and reduced.According to the morphology of the 14th district of Tehran, in the police management of urban crime centers, three factors have the greatest impact on the occurrence of theft, including the lack of appropriate cultural and educational structures in this area of the city, the existence of worn and old structures, the lack of supervision of parks and green spaces in the area, and The length of days is decreasing and the duration of darkness is lengthening.It is suggested that the 14th police station of Tehran city, by using the operational and police force of that region, with car and motorcycle patrols in an inconspicuous and timely manner, control and monitor plans for experienced thieves in the autumn season and also in the dark hours. With the cooling and the beginning of the rainy season, for private places without seasonal habitation and dark and lonely alleys and out of the sight of police patrol units, these areas should put the reconstruction and improvement of roads on their agenda in terms of safety, and by improving the lighting conditions of the streets, roads, and Margins equip the mentioned points to this important matter.
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