سازگاری با تغییر اقلیم ازدیدگاه کشاورزان و کارشناسان (شهرستان رستم) (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
تغییر اقلیم تأثیر بسزایی بر کشاورزی به ویژه قشر کم درآمد جامعه دارد. سازگاری مؤثر می تواند انعطاف پذیری بخش کشاورزی و سطح اطمینان امنیت غذایی را در مقابل تغییر آب وهوا افزایش دهد؛ اما کشاورزان به طور معمول، به دلیل طیف گسترده ای از بازدارنده ها در انجام دادن رفتارهای سازگاری موفق نیستند. هدف از پژوهش حاضر مطالعه و مقایسه ادراک کشاورزان و کارشناسان دولتی از تغییر اقلیم در بخش کشاورزی شهرستان رستم استان فارس و بررسی تأثیر آن بر کشاورزی و سازگاری با روندهای مشاهده شده، است. در این پژوهش برای اولویت بندی راهبردهای سازگار با تغییر اقلیم از شاخص راهبردهای سازگاری (ASI)، برای جمع آوری پاسخ های کشاورزان (370 نفر) و کارشناسان (15 نفر) از روش نمونه گیری کرجسی و مورگان استفاده و درنهایت، اعتبار پاسخ ها نیز با ضریب آلفای کرونباخ تأیید شده است. یافته ها نشان داد که کارشناسان اصلی ترین شواهد و اثر های تغییر اقلیم را در منطقه به خوبی درک کرده اند؛ اما برای کشاورزان تغییرات هیدرواقلیمی منابع آبی و بارش ملموس تر بوده است؛ زیرا آنها معتقدند که این تغییرات بر درآمدشان تأثیر مستقیم داشته است. به همین دلیل، محققان در بخش بزرگی از جامعه مطالعه شده استراتژی سازگاری صرفه جویی در آبیاری با مدرن سازی را انتخاب کردند. تحلیل واریانس با استفاده از روش ANOVA نشان داد که بین دیدگاه جامعه محلی و کارشناسان دولت تفاوت معناداری وجود دارد که این موضوع می تواند یکی از موانع اجرای راهبردهای سازگاری با تغییر اقلیم در منطقه باشد. عملکرد بهینه سیاست های سازنده سازگاری علاوه بر اولویت بندی و ایجاد آگاهی، نیازمند هماهنگی (به خصوص با رویکرد مشارکتی) و غلبه بر تعارضات بین جامعه محلی و مقامات دولتی است.Adaptation to Climate Change from the Perspective of Farmers and Experts (Rostam City)
Climate change has had a significant impact on agriculture, especially in the low-income segment of society. Effective adaptation can increase the resilience of the agricultural sector and the level of food security in the face of climate change. The present study investigated the perceptions of farmers and government experts regarding climate change in the agricultural sector of Rostam City, Fars Province, its effect on agriculture, and adaptation to the observed trends. The adaptation strategy index (ASI) was used to prioritize strategies adapted to climate change, and the Krejcie and Morgan sampling method was used to collect responses from farmers (370 people) and experts (15 people). The validity of the answers was confirmed using Cronbach's alpha coefficient. The findings showed that the experts understood the main evidence and effects of climate change in the region. However, for farmers, hydro-climatic changes in water resources and precipitation were more tangible. They believed that this had a direct impact on income. Therefore, a large part of the studied community chose an adaptive strategy to save irrigation through modernization. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) showed that there was a significant difference between the views of the local community and government experts. This issue can be an obstacle to the implementation of climate change adaptation strategies in the region. In addition to prioritizing and creating awareness, the optimal performance of adaptive policies requires coordination, preferably through a collaborative approach, and overcoming conflicts between local communities and government authorities.Keywords: Climate Change, Adaptation, Farmers, Experts, Rostam City. IntroductionClimate change has challenged the worldwide production of agricultural products (Ayyogari et al., 2014; Bisbis, et al., 2018; Gruda et al., 2019; Morel & Cartau, 2023; Van Tilburg & Hudson, 2022). The most important result is damage to the income and livelihood of farmers in the agricultural sector and jeopardizing food security (Tohidimoghadam et al., 2023; Taheri et al., 2022). Adapting to climate change is one of the latest solutions to the effects of climate change on agriculture. Understanding and changing appropriate behaviors are the most important prerequisites for effective adaptation (Deressa et al., 2009). Owing to a wide range of constraints, farmers are not usually successful in adopting adaptive behaviors. In this research, Rostam City is studied as one of the major production centers of strategic agricultural products in the Fars Province. According to a study conducted by Bazyar and Ahmadvand (2017), the most important obstacles in the development of the agricultural sector of Rostam City are economic, social, and facility factors and limited access to water. To accelerate the adoption of adaptation methods, reduce vulnerability, and increase resilience against climatic hazards, coordination between the views of farmers and relevant officials is very important. The purpose of this research is to study the opinions of local farmers and experts in the agricultural sector regarding the effect of climate change on agricultural products and adaptability to it, and to measure the degree of conformity of the opinions of these two groups. Materials and MethodsThe opinions of 370 farmers and 15 experts in Rostam were studied using a self-made questionnaire to examine their views regarding climate change adaptation strategies. Each questionnaire included three main parts: understanding the concept of climate change, understanding the effects of climate change, and strategies to adapt to climate change. Cronbach's alpha coefficient was used to assess the reliability of the collected data. The adaptation strategy index (ASI) was used to rank the importance of adaptation strategies to climate change. A two-way ANOVA was used to compare the opinions of the two communities of farmers and relevant experts. This statistical model was used to analyze the average differences between the different groups of data. Research FindingsThe results of the analysis showed that all experts agreed on the issues of temperature increase, drought, and decrease in rainfall and drop in underground and surface water. Only 13.4% disagreed with the dust factor. However, regarding the opinions of farmers, more than 99% considered drought and a decrease in precipitation, approximately 95% decrease in surface water, 89% increase in temperature, and 84% increase in the number of days with dust as effective indicators for understanding climate change. More than 93% of the experts agreed that the cultivated area and income of villagers from the agricultural sector decreased. Approximately 86% of the expert community stated that pests increased, and the level of crop yield decreased. The abandonment of agricultural jobs occurred from the viewpoint of 80% of the experts. Among the respondents, approximately 77% believed that pests increased, and villagers abandoned farming. More than 80 percent believed that the level of cultivation, yield, and income from agriculture decreased. The modernization of irrigation in both societies was known as the most important measure in adapting to climate change. Although migration was the least important strategy for adapting to climate change in both societies, it ranked ninth from the point of view of experts and eleventh from the point of view of farmers. According to the ANOVA results, the views of farmers and experts regarding the realization of climate change, understanding the effects of climate change, and adaptation strategies were different. These differences could be due to the lack of sufficient training of farmers and technical technicians, accurate and practical planning and transparency of programs, and the existence of strong fluctuations in economic variables in the local community. Discussion of Results and ConclusionThe results of the field investigations showed that the drought and decrease in rainfall were concrete events in the understanding of climate change for farmers, who considered the most important result to be a decrease in income. In addition, they reached a level of awareness that the crises caused by global warming made it impossible to achieve sustainable development using traditional approaches, and adapting to climate change and increasing the resilience of new approaches are alternatives. The modernization of irrigation was introduced as the most common implementation method for adapting to climate change. The difference between the attitudes of the local community and government experts is an important challenge in the implementation of climate change adaptation and resilience projects. This issue leads to the non-alignment of policies and a lack of coordination between organizations. Reducing the damage caused by climate change also requires the awareness, understanding, and convergence of strategies at the community level. Therefore, the prerequisite for the implementation of climate change adaptation projects, in addition to education and promotion, is building a sense of trust and overcoming conflicts between the local community and government officials.
تبلیغات
