تعیین کننده های بقای ازدواج اول زنان مطلقه در ایران: مطالعه ای در میان زنان بدون تجربه زندگی مشترک (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
شناسایی عوامل زمینه ساز تعارض زوجین به ویژه زنان قبل از آغاز زندگی مشترک به منظور پیشگیری از گسست قانونی و همچنین افزایش رضایت زناشویی در مراحل بعدی ازدواج ضروری به نظر می رسد. هدف مطالعه حاضر، بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر بقای ازدواج اول 279 زن مطلقه بدون تجربه زندگی مشترک است که اطلاعات آن ها در پیمایش مقطعی طلاق سازمان ثبت احوال کشور در پاییز 1396-1397 جمع آوری گردیده است. در این مطالعه، ابتدا مهم ترین تعیین کننده های بقای ازدواج با استفاده از رویکرد ناپارامتری جنگل بقا انتخاب و سپس عوامل مؤثر با استفاده از روش های تحلیل بقای پارامتری با شکنندگی های فردی و مشترک شناسایی شدند. به ترتیب 17.9 و 30.1 درصد از زنان بقای ازدواج کمتر از یک سال و 1 تا 2 سال داشتند. با استفاده از کارآترین الگوریتم جنگل بقا در پیش بینی، متغیرهای پیش بین انتخاب و مدل زمان شکست شتابیده وایبل با شکنندگی مشترک به عنوان مدل نهایی بقای ازدواج اول برازش یافت. براساس این مدل، متغیرهای تعداد سال های تحصیل (0.001=p-مقدار) و تعداد سال های آشنایی غیررسمی (0.013=p-مقدار) و رسمی (0.007=p-مقدار) روی بقای ازدواج تأثیر معنی دار داشتند. بنابراین، اتخاذ سیاست هایی متناسب به منظور فراهم کردن امکان اشتغال زنان تحصیل کرده، افزایش طول مدت آشنایی رسمی و کاهش طول مدت آشنایی غیررسمی با هدف ماندگاری ازدواج زنان در دوران قبل ازدواج ضروری است.Determinants of First Marriage Survival of Iranian Divorced Women: A Study among Those Who Did Not Living Together Before Divorce
It seems necessary to identify underlying factors of conflict between couples, and especially women before starting marriage life, to prevent divorce in the later stages of marriage. The current study aims to investigate the factors affecting First Marriage Survival (FMS) of 279 divorced women without marriage life experience. First, the most important determinants of women’s FMS were selected using the non-parametric survival forest approach, and then parametric survival models were fitted to the data. FMS of 17.9% and 30.1% women were less than one year and 1-2 years, respectively. Using the most efficient survival forest algorithm in forecasting, important covariates were extracted and the shared frailty Weibull accelerated failure time model was fitted as the final FMS model; educational years (P-value=0.001) and informal (P-value=0.013) and formal (P-value=0.007) acquaintance years had significant effects on these women’s FMS. Therefore, it is necessary to adopt appropriate policies to provide the possibility of employment for educated women, increase the formal acquaintance duration, and reduce the informal acquaintance duration to survive women's marriages in the pre-marriage period.
Introduction
Divorce is often of great importance due to multiple social consequences and different groups that affect the micro and macro levels, and numerous studies have been conducted on its causes and consequences carried out all over the world.
Despite many studies conducted on marriage and divorce, a limited number of them have been done to model marriage survival. On the other hand, classical survival analysis methods are not efficient in analyzing big data. Thus, considering the importance and prominent role of women in the family and society, their greater vulnerability to the divorce consequences, and their key effects on fertility rate changes, the most important determinants of FMS for divorced women without marriage life experience were investigated. For this purpose, first, survival forests were used and the most important variables affecting FMS were selected from study covariates. Then, factors affecting FMS were determined by applying parametric frailty models of survival analysis.
Methods and Data
The present study is a secondary analysis of a cross-sectional survey conducted during the fall of 2017 to 2018 by the Civil Registration Organization that studied those referred to the divorce registry offices in all provinces of Iran to register their divorce.
Out of 1504 first-marriage divorced women, 279 were related to women without marriage life experience, and the most important determinants of their FMS were selected using survival forest methods based on the covariate. Then, the effect of selected covariates on FMS was determined by individual and joint frailties parametric survival models.
Random Forests (RF) are group tree models with an extensive application in machine learning algorithms. Random Survival Forest (RSF) from RF generalizations was introduced for right-censored survival data. In this study, after selecting the most important covariates through the selected RSF algorithm, parametric survival models based on accelerated failure time (AFT) in which the acceleration factor is assumed to be constant over time are applied. To do so, R, Stata, and SAS software were used to fit the models.
Findings
In this study, 68.8%, 27.3%, and 3.9% of divorced women were in age groups of 15-25 years, 25-35 years, and 35 years and more, respectively. The FMS of 17.9%, 30.1%, 19.0%, 15.4%, 9.3%, and 7.2% of these women were less than one year, 1-2 years, 2-3 years, 3-4 years, 4-5 years and 5-10 years, respectively. The median FMS was 28 ± 3.26 months and almost 80 percent of their divorces occurred by the 47th month after their marriage.
According to predictive performance indices, RSF1 is the most efficient RSF algorithm for analyzing the FMS of women. RSF1 reveals that the number of women’s, their spouse’s, mother's, father’s, and father-in-law's educational years, counseling after the marriage problem began, women’s and their spouse’s siblings, formal and informal acquaintance years, cultural time use, provisional married divorce rate and human development index, family divorces, and marriage age are the most vital determinants of FMS.
According to the values of AIC and BIC, the Weibull AFT model was selected as the FMS model. Then, this model with individual and shared frailties based on two provisional variables of the human development index and divorce rate is fitted. Weibull AFT model with common frailty for the married divorce rate variable with inverse Gaussian distribution was selected as the final model for FMS. Based on the results of the fitted model, the number of educational years (P-value=0.001), and the number of informal (P-value =0.013) and formal (P-value =0.007) acquaintance years, had significant effects on FMS. The following interpretations can be obtained by calculating the Acceleration Factors (AF):
Based on the AF, the number of women’s educational years, 1.044, and informal acquaintance years,1.087, it can be concluded that for women residing in provinces with the same married divorce rates, their FMS increases with increasing the number of their educational years and informal acquaintance years.
Based on the AF, the number of informal acquaintance years, 0.935, it can be concluded that for women residing in the provinces with the same married divorce rates, the survival of their FMS decreases by increasing the number of informal acquaintance years.
Conclusion and Discussion
This study investigated the factors affecting the FMS of divorced women without marriage life experience and concluded educational level and formal and informal acquaintance years as influential variables.
In the current study by increasing the number of women’s educational years, the FMS of divorced women increases. The educational level cannot be considered one of the most fundamental factors for marriage stability, but couples with a higher education level will have the possibility to earn more through their education and therefore not be inclined to divorce. Therefore, if the growth of women's education and the expansion of higher education are accompanied by the creation of job opportunities, the increase in family income sources leads to a higher expected value of marital life and helps strengthen the family.
One of the steps that couples must pass through safely before beginning their marriage life, includes periods of informal and formal acquaintances. Since a marriage event is an entrance to a new stage of life, how to begin and form relationships during the engagement period influences couples' behavior and subsequent encounters. In this study, the results showed that as the number of informal acquaintance years increases, the FMS of divorced women decreases.
Despite the importance of premarital developmental periods, some couples do not have enough time opportunity to get to know each other, and their formal acquaintance and engagement time is usually shorter than that to gain an understanding of each other; as a result, this period affects the vulnerability of marriage to divorce. The current study findings showed that having formal acquaintance years could decrease the divorce risk.
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