شناسایی و اولویت بندی ریسک های پروژه های عمرانی بزرگ مقیاس شهری (مطالعه موردی: طرح بزرگ میدان شهدای مشهد) (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)
درجه علمی: نشریه علمی (وزارت علوم)
آرشیو
چکیده
انجام پروژه های عمرانی بزرگ بدون شک توأم با ریسک های فراوان خواهد بود. در این پروژه ها اغلب ریسک ها نادیده گرفته می شوند یا به بخش هایی که دانش، منابع و ظرفیت کافی برای مدیریت موثر آنها را ندارد تخصیص داده می شوند که این مهم ضریب کیفیت انجام پروژه را کاهش داده و در برخی از موارد سبب تأخیر در دستیابی به اهداف پروژه می گردد. لذا شناسایی ریسک ها، رتبه بندی عوامل موثر بر آنها و همچنین بررسی شدت ریسک ها از ضرورت های اجرای هر پروژه عمرانی است. تحقیق حاضر به دنبال دستیابی به این هدف پروژه عمرانی میدان شهدا شهر مشهد را مورد بررسی قرار داده است. تحقیق حاضر از نوع توصیفی تحلیلی است برای جمع آوری داده ها از روش پرسش نامه بهره گرفته است. حجم جامعه نمونه بر اساس جدول مورگان تعداد 51 کارشناس انتخاب گردید. نتایج بدست آمده از آزمون کای اسکوئر نشان می دهد که احتمال وقوع ریسک های بازار، مالی و مدیریتی در محیط پروژه، ریسک ماهیت چندرشته ای در میان ریسک های محیط بین سازمانی، و همچنین ریسک های سیاسی، اجتماعی و اقتصادی در محیط خارجی طرح میدان شهدای مشهد بالا می باشند. از سوی دیگر، میزان تاثیر بر اهداف ریسک های مالی در محیط پروژه، ماهیت چندرشته ای در محیط بین سازمانی، و بروز تورم در محیط خارجی طرح میدان شهدای مشهد بالاتر از سایر گویه ها رتبه بندی شد. همچنین بیشترین میزان شدت ریسک در محیط پروژه عدم برآورد صحیح هزینه ها، در محیط بین سازمانی تاخیر در اعطای تسهیلات، و در محیط خارجی نیز بروز تورم شناسایی شد.Identifying The Risks of Large-Scale Urban Construction Projects And Prioritizing Them (Case Study: Shohada Square Plan of Mashhad)
Introduction
Since the municipality is responsible for providing urban infrastructure and services, following the increase in population and the expansion of cities, the need to invest in construction projects in the municipality becomes important. Therefore, a huge part of the municipality's budget - which is the main custodian of civil works in the city - is allocated to provide capital for large-scale urban projects and infrastructure projects. Construction projects, as one of the key tools in the development of societies, have always faced risks. Comprehensive project management is the main way to prevent and deal with these risks, and risk management is one of the most important processes and basic challenges in project management. In line with the correct management of large-scale urban construction projects and their realizability, the risks of these projects should be examined at three levels: internal project environment, inter-organizational coordination, and external environment. Among the most important urban construction projects of Mashhad in recent years, the Shohada Square project with an area of 33 hectares, 1 km away from Imam Reza Holy Shrine, can be mentioned, which has been studied in this research to identify and prioritize risks of large-scale urban construction projects.
Materials and Methods
The current research is applied in terms of purpose, and it is descriptive-analytical in terms of its method. In order to collect information in this research, library study and field research methods have been used, and after collecting data, in order to analyze and prioritize them and obtain information, comparative models and SPSS software have been used. The statistical population of the research consists of the current and former senior managers of Mashhad urban projects, the current and former managers and deputies of the municipality, and managers responsible and related to the Shohada Square plan from the beginning of the initial stages of the project until today, as well as company managers of consultants and contractors related to Shohada Square projects, which 51 of them were selected using Morgan's table. In addition, to estimate the probability of occurrence and impact of risks on the project goals, a questionnaire based on the opinions of experts (10 people) and the background study of the research have been prepared and distributed among them.
Findings
The findings of this research show that despite the complexities, numerous, and diverse considerations in the internal, external, and inter-organizational environments of large-scale urban projects, the significance, and importance of such projects in urban management, and the extensive damages that delay creates disorder in project implementation for the city, still the comprehensive and integrated management of the risks of these projects is not among the priorities of the planners and executives, and structured management the way to identify, prevent and face the possible risks of the projects is not utilized by the executive management of the Shohada square plan and Mashhad Municipality. Also, the results of the research show that the source of most of the risks of the project is the employer (Mashhad Municipality) and if the deficiencies are resolved by the employer, we can expect a better performance in the implementation of the project and the achievement of the project's goals. In addition, by observing the results of the research, we find that in the internal environment of the project, the highest probability of risk occurrence belongs to the category of "management risks" and the highest amount of impact belongs to the category of "financial risks". In the inter-organizational environment, the most likely occurrence and impact of risks simultaneously belonged to "multidisciplinary nature" risks. Finally, in the external environment of the project, the "social risks" category has the highest probability of occurrence and the "economic risks" category has the highest impact on the project's goals.
Conclusion
Today, with the intensification of the development of cities and the globalization of projects, it is vital to use standards to coordinate the people involved in the project and ensure its correct implementation. The development of cities has caused an increase in the volume of construction projects, and the needs of businesses and people's lives in metropolises and the efforts of city managers to satisfy the citizens have caused the emergence of the concept of large-scale urban construction projects with their own special aspects and characteristics. The challenges that have arisen in the management and implementation of large-scale projects and their direct and indirect effects on the lives of citizens made managers emphasize and pay more attention to the identification and management of anticipated risks in the course of project implementation. As mentioned in this research, project risk management is the most difficult part of the project management process and includes all the activities to identify and control project risks in order to reach the goals and priorities. To this end, in order to identify and prioritize the risks of large-scale urban construction projects, the Shohada Square plan of Mashhad was studied in this research. In general, the fundamental difference between this research and previous studies can be mentioned in three categories: 1- In the way of dealing with the risk problem and considering the problem in three levels and environment (internal, external, and inter-organizational) and comparing these three levels with each other; 2- Data analysis method 3- Comprehensiveness of research subjects and investigation of a wide range of risks. In this regard, 90 possible risks in construction projects were identified and defined in 18 general categories and in 3 environments, and based on the two criteria of the probability of occurrence and impact on the goals and outcomes, they were measured in the form of risk amount. Based on the results obtained, according to the investors and managers of the Shohada Square project, the issue of "inflation and increase in construction costs during the project stages" has the highest risk, followed by the risks of "changes in the exchange rate of Rial and changes in construction costs" and "lack of correct estimation of project costs and lack of funds considered by the employer" are in the next ranks. Also, the item "Crime and delinquency in the project environment" has the lowest risk in the project.
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