Oil Exporting Countries

 The oil price shocks are an important source that affect on TOT in both oil exporting and importing countries. Hence, this paper compares the effects of real oil price shock on TOT in both oil importing and exporting countries, using Panel Data technique and during 1980-2010. To the best of our knowledge, we applied the nonlinear approach in order to assess the asymmetric impact of the oil price shocks on TOT. The results show that the oil price shocks influenced the TOT in the oil exporting and importing countries, differently. So that, in oil exporting countries, positive (negative) oil price shocks have significantly positive (negative) effect on their TOT, while in oil importing countries, positive (negative) oil price shocks have significantly a negative (positive) effect on TOT. Furthermore, the findings reveal that in the oil exporting countries, the effect of negative oil price shocks on TOT is more than positive oil price shocks. While, in oil importing countries, it is converse.JEL Classification: E64, F41

In this paper, we empirically investigate the relationship between oil price changes and output in a group of oil exporting countries. The dynamics of business cycles in Libya, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Kuwait, Venezuela and Qatar are modeled by alternative regime switching models. We show that the extension of uni-variate Markov Switching model in order to include oil revenue improves dating business cycles in these economies. For all countries, the optimal specification suggested by the data is to consider three cycles or regimes, namely, high growth, mild growth, and recession. These three regimes can be associated to high positive oil shock, mild positive oil shock and negative oil price shock. An interesting finding of the paper is that there is a variety of relationships between oil price shocks and business cycles. Thus, in order to see the effects of an oil price shock one should take into consideration the economic regime when the oil price shock hits the economy. Therefore, it is not possible to talk about a general relationship between oil price shocks and macroeconomic variables for all the main oil exporting countries. JEL Classification: E31, E32, E52, Q41

It is generally believed that macroeconomic and financial performance in oil exporting countries is interlinked to oil price movements. Regarding that assumption, the present study aims to examine the impact of oil price movements on bank nonperforming loans (NPLs) ,as a criterion for evaluation of bank credit risk, by applying the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) on data from 18 Iranian banks data over period 2006–2017. The result of the estimated model indicates that there is a significant relation between fluctuations of oil price and bank nonperforming loans; accordingly, any decrease in the price of oil will result in an increase in bank nonperforming loans. Also, in order to have comprehensive assessment, economic and bank specific control variables were used in the model. Findings show that the NPLs ratio increases as economic growth decreases and exchange rate and real interest rates rise. Among bank specific factors, equity ratio as a criterion for efficiency and loan growth has a negative effect on NPLs, but by raising bank industry concentration, credit risk and financial stability can be threatened. Thus, the reliance of oil rich economies on oil incomes leads to the linkage of oil prices, and macroeconomic and financial performance. Therefore, the result of this study will be useful in adapting and diversifying macroeconomic policies in the face of drastic changes in oil prices and mitigating its adverse effects.