Analysis of the Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Returns and Tourism Industry Development in Selected Countries (مقاله علمی وزارت علوم)

چکیده

The tourism industry, as one of the important drivers of economic growth, plays a significant role in improving the performance of financial markets and enhancing the efficiency of related sectors, which has been considered in many studies. This study aimed to analyze the impact of macroeconomic factors on the stock returns of the tourism industry in five selected countries: France, Spain, Turkey, Malaysia, and Iran, during the years 1999 to 2023, using panel data and the generalized moments (GMM) approach, which allows for the examination of dynamic effects and control for country effects. The findings showed that economic growth and the added value of the service sector have a positive and significant impact on the stock returns of the tourism industry, while exchange rate fluctuations, inflation, and interest rates significantly reduce stock returns in some countries such as Iran and Turkey, which have more unstable economies. Also, the effects of external shocks such as the Covid-19 pandemic and economic sanctions on Iran have been observed to be significant and negative on the stock returns of this industry. Governance index, as a key institutional variable, also plays an effective role in strengthening the stock returns of the tourism industry and can moderate the negative effects of economic factors and external shocks. Comparative analysis between selected countries reveals structural differences in the intensity and direction of the impact of macroeconomic and institutional factors, which shows the importance of economic conditions, quality of governance and crisis management in each country. Based on these results, strengthening sustainable economic policies, improving governance indicators and managing external risks are recommended as key strategies to increase the efficiency of the tourism industry and develop related financial markets.